A "net possessions created" stat (applied to Rockets)

This is a stat I just came up with for trying to capture those "little things" people always talk about. It's just based on the box score, so a lot of things (charges, movement without the ball, making smart passes, defensive rotations, etc.) aren't included here. But its a starting point.

The idea is to quantify how players "create possessions" for their team. What do I mean by this? Basically, anything you do give your team a possession while taking a possession from another team is a created possession. And when you miss a shot or turn the ball over, that's like using up a possession. I wanted to combine the information in the box score to capture the net created possessions a player gives his team.

I think this is an important, but often under-appreciated aspect of basketball. We tend to focus on how players generate points with the possessions given. But not what players do to actually give their teams opportunities to generate points, while limiting the other team's opportunities.

This is the formula (albeit imperfect) that I use:

net_poss_creation = 0.7*orb + 0.3*drb + stl - tov + 0.7*blk - 0.7*missed_FG

I chose the weights based on my view of their relative importance. That's open to debate.

Here's what the average is for this stat, by position, across the league:

Code:

      [B]PC/40MIN[/B]
PG     -6.4  
SG     -5.2
SF     -4.3
PF     -1.4
C       0.1
Tot    -3.7

Naturally, the stat will favor bigs. They are generally less active in generating points and consuming possessions, but they do the "blue collar" work in getting their team the ball.

Here are the top 20 players in the league thus far, per minute (minimum of 80 minutes played):

Code:

     [B]Player              Team      Min     PC/40MIN[/B]
1    skinner,brian       pho       90       7.8
[B]2    hayes,chuck         hou       190      7.2[/B]
3    camby,marcus        den       272      5.7
4    haywood,brendan     was       175      5.7
5    bynum,andrew        lal       144      5.3
6    diop,desagana       dal       201      5.0
7    hollins,ryan        cha       88       5.0
8    evans,reggie        phi       175      4.6
9    okafor,emeka        cha       235      4.3
10   foster,jeff         ind       164      3.8
11   marion,shawn        pho       297      2.8
12   oberto,fabricio     san       143      2.8
13   collison,nick       sea       217      2.6
14   balkman,renaldo     nyk       93       2.6
15   perkins,kendrick    bos       154      2.6
16   chandler,tyson      nor       258      2.4
17   smith,jason         phi       106      2.3
18   maxiell,jason       det       127      2.3
19   najera,eduardo      den       178      2.1
20   smith,joe           chi       118      1.9

And here are the numbers for Rockets players:

Code:

    [B]Player            Team      Min     PC/40MIN[/B]
1   hayes,chuck       hou       190       7.2
2   mutombo,dikembe   hou       31        5.7
3   battier,shane     hou       288      -0.5
4   scola,luis        hou       137      -0.9
5   ming,yao          hou       302      -2.3
6   wells,bonzi       hou       177      -2.8
7   head,luther       hou       92       -4.0
8   alston,rafer      hou       207      -6.0
9   james,mike        hou       193      -7.7
10  mcgrady,tracy     hou       302      -9.6

Not surprisingly, Chuck's one of the league leaders. He's getting four times as many steals as turnovers (pretty much unheard of), and that's not even considering all the other forced turnovers he's caused (e.g. charges, forced travels). He goes after the offensive boards, and he rarely takes a shot (so rarely misses). Tracy McGrady is near the bottom of the league in this particular stat, but that's to be expected for a player who's primary role on the team is to generate points (either for himself, or facilitating others). That's obviously an important job, and he's pretty good at it, and its up to others to give him possessions to work with.

 

Adelman doesn't need any help from me. We all can learn a lot more from him than he'd ever need to learn from us.

 

The rationale with weighting them the same is if you get a block, you're forcing a missed shot by the opponent. They're like mirror images of eachother.

And I weight an offensive rebound the same as a missed shot because if you get the offensive boards but follow that up with a missed shot, your net impact is zero.

 

When Chuck's on the court, the other team outscores us? That simply isn't what the evidence shows.

Per 100 possessions, we were +9.1 with him in 05/06, and +11.5 with him in 06/07. And early on this season (it's REALLY early), we are +3.5 with him.

And people always say that Chuck misses open shots. Every player misses shots around the basket from time to time when they are trying to get it up over a defender. How many times has Yao or T-mac blown an easy layup? With Chuck, he only attempts shots around the basket, so when he misses people will magnify it. The fact is he's been a 57% shooter coming into this season. This year, he's *surprise* 57%. We're not talking about a Ben Wallace or Jason Collins -- guys who struggle to convert on even half of their shot attempts. Chuck, for the role he plays, is perfectly adequate in his finishing capabilities.

 

Initially, I didn't include missed FGs, actually. But then I thought it made sense to include it if I wanted to capture the net possessions created. Here are the ratings when I exclude missed FGs:

Code:

        [B]Player                Team      Min       PC2/MIN[/B]
1       skinner,brian         pho       90        9.6
2       camby,marcus          den       272       8.3
3       bynum,andrew          lal       144       8.1
4       haywood,brendan       was       175       7.7
5       hayes,chuck           hou       190       7.7
6       okafor,emeka          cha       235       7.5
7       marion,shawn          pho       297       7.4
8       hollins,ryan          cha       88        7.0
9       smith,joe             chi       118       6.8
10      collison,nick         sea       217       6.6
11      evans,reggie          phi       175       6.5
12      smith,jason           phi       106       6.2
13      diop,desagana         dal       201       6.1
14      foster,jeff           ind       164       6.0
15      stoudemire,amare      pho       129       6.0
16      garnett,kevin         bos       238       5.8
17      foyle,adonal          orl       97        5.6
18      ilgauskas,zydrun      cle       268       5.5
19      kaman,chris           lac       222       5.4
20      thomas,tyrus          chi       161       5.4

And for the Rockets:

Code:

        [B]Player                Team      Min       PC2/MIN[/B]
1       hayes,chuck           hou       190       7.7
2       mutombo,dikembe       hou       31        5.7
3       wells,bonzi           hou       177       4.3
4       ming,yao              hou       302       3.3
5       scola,luis            hou       137       3.1
6       battier,shane         hou       288       2.8
7       james,mike            hou       193       1.5
8       mcgrady,tracy         hou       302       0.9
9       alston,rafer          hou       207       0.7
10      head,luther           hou       92        0.3