Cyberx, paging cyberx ....

Understood. I think the point is that injury history is always a major concern when signing or trading for a player, and that is for a reason.

 

I think basketballholic had a bit of gambler's fallacy in his thought process

 

So your argument is that because a player has been healthy for the majority of his career, his risk of getting injured goes UP?? What kind of backwards logic is that?? Trends are trends for a reason. They hold true over an extended period of time, and health is certainly something that can be attributed to much more than "dumb luck." Conditioning, strength, and overall genetics are HUGE factors when talking about a player's health. If a player has good health over his career, that's because those factors have certainly played a part. And because of those factors, him suffering a serious injury at ANY point in his career and firmly against the odds.

And your coin flip example is so off-base, it's not even worth mentioning. You are NOT more likely to get a tails simply because you've gotten heads 70% of the time. Every single coin flip is independent of the last one. That example literally holds NO pertinence to the argument you're trying to make here.

 

My sausage can confirm this.

 

This. Which is why I say that one's injury history has so much weight. When a guy has proven to be prone to muscle/ligament injuries, his chances are higher of that type of injury.

The freak injuries like George's or landing on top of someone's foot may be a toss up, but ACL tears and things like that, have a lot to do with your gait and the strength of the muscles supporting the ligament.

 

Horrendous. This is basic probability and statistics.

 

No. My argument is during any given time period, one team's odds of suffering a major injury are no greater or less than any other team's odds of suffering a major injury.

That should be a given.

So saying and believing that a team has a lesser chance of making the playoffs because they have higher odds of suffering a major injury is a false statement and belief. Every teams plays 82 games. Same odds for everybody.

 

The more injury prone players you have on your team makes it more likely that you will have an injury. Is that really that hard to understand?

 

Being a spot-up shooter means his legs and back have to be strong and in coordination with his upper body. In some ways his injury is worse for RA to return to form quickly. And what is the state of his mind?

Anderson is a good player, the NOLA front line is strong. Don't forget Gordon, tho who can remember him?

The West, from 4-11, is really pretty even. Healthy Kobe + Nash adds Laker spice as they will win games. So, who in the West is legitimately bad, Utah?

 

Minnesota
Sacramento
Utah
Lakers without Kobe

 

This kind of thought process is why you were so stunned when Romney lost to Obama that you had a melt down and abandoned your previous user name. You really need to brush up on how statistics work, jopat.

 

Forgot Minnie, oops. They won't be a pushover, or have enough to push over into the play-offs. Sac? I included them as I suspect they'll be competitive.

Lakers without Kobe? Sure, but I was suggesting that if he and Nash could post healthy years they would win some games (yet not uh, push over into the p/o's).

 

anderson had the same injury, surgery as peyton manning and he's playing a sport that involves constant sprints up and down a hard surface.

 

why dont yall make a tipjar bet on whether the rockets get bledsoe/dragic or not. lol

 

Very simply.

What are the odds of the Pelies suffering a major injury in 2014-15?


What are the odds of the Rockets suffering a major injury in 2014-15?



Tell me....which is greater?

 

The Rockets' odds for major injuries are lower because the Rockets only have two major players whose injuries are major. Injuries to the rest of the players are just role injuries and pieces to complete the injury report.

 

Yeah...That's not true at all. Simple statistics man

 

Why on Earth should something as subjective as the proneness to injury be a GIVEN for equal odds?? The fact is that the odds are NOT EQUAL. There are certain players (and we as Rockets fan know this far too well) that are FAR more prone to injuries than others. During the Yao and T-Mac era, are you honestly telling me that you would have given equal odds to the two of them suffering injuries as you would have to Shaq and Kobe?? In that same vein, are you seriously telling me that Anthony Davis and Eric Gordon are EQUALLY LIKELY to get injured as James Harden and Dwight Howard (two players who have been healthy throughout their careers)?? That makes absolutely NO sense.

I don't understand why you can't simply chalk this up to a fallacy in logic on your part, and let it go. You have multiple people telling you that you're painfully, and obviously wrong on this, and yet you continue to try and drive your point home.

 

So you agree that the odds are higher that the Pelies will suffer a major injury than the odds that the Rockets will suffer a major injury?


Multiple people on this board are telling us that the Pelies pick isn't the most valuable trade asset and that Terrence is the answer for us at the 4 too, Charlie.


There is no predictive model available to determine the odds of an NBA team suffering a major injury. (But it would be a fascinating undertaking by statisticians.) You can point to previous injury history as an indicator. And it is a factor. But you can also point to age and minutes played as equal factors. And you can also point to the frequency/infrequency of past major injury history for a particular team. You could also look at body-type factors, size, weight, length of limbs, etc. But there is no predictive model for an NBA team suffering major injury available at this time.

Posters that say one team has a greater or less chance of major injury than another team are just guessing. They have no proof of such. For every Yao Ming and Sam Bowie there is a Russell Westbrook, Shaun Livingston, and Paul George. And then those guys become the new Yao Ming and Sam Bowie and then there is somebody else randomly cut down. I seriously doubt if there a predictive model that would show more than random equal odds for all the teams in the league.

 

Going to assume you included my post by accident as I was discussing a scenario with another poster. I have not directed any questions toward Cyberex or other insiders regarding their info.

Now back to the statistics & probability discussion.