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Analysts: Is Obama's black support nudging whites to Clinton?

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by bigtexxx, Mar 9, 2008.

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  1. bigtexxx

    bigtexxx Member

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    http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5605004.html

    March 9, 2008, 11:48AM
    Analysts: Is Obama's black support nudging whites to Clinton?


    By CHARLES BABINGTON
    Associated Press

    CHICAGO — Barack Obama would not be leading the Democratic presidential race without the enthusiasm and high turnout of black voters.

    They spearheaded his comeback win in South Carolina, where Obama trounced Hillary Rodham Clinton and John Edwards with the backing of four out of every five black voters. They provided his margin of victory in many other states, and will play a key role in Tuesday's primary in Mississippi, where Clinton is the underdog.

    But Obama's campaign saw the limits of black support in last week's losses in Ohio and Texas, which kept Clinton's campaign alive. And the role black voters will play in the next big contest, Pennsylvania's April 22 primary, is unclear.

    Moreover, some analysts think it's possible Obama's heavy black support is nudging some working-class white Democrats into Clinton's camp. If true, it could be an important factor in a contest that remains remarkably tight after a year of campaigning.

    Obama, the son of a white mother from Kansas and a black father from Kenya, won slightly more white votes than Clinton in Wisconsin, Virginia and a few other states last month, helping him to a string of wins and the overall lead in delegates to the party's national convention.

    But Clinton won nearly two out of every three white votes in Ohio, and 56 percent of those in Texas, where she also ran well among Latinos. Strategists are pondering the results, wondering if Pennsylvania's demographic similarities to Ohio will deliver another important win to Clinton in six weeks.

    Ronald Walters, a University of Maryland political scientist who tracks racial trends and is writing a book on Obama, thinks Obama's strong support from blacks made it easier for some whites in Ohio and Texas to vote for Clinton.

    "There's some of that," Walters said in an interview. He pointed to exit polls from Ohio, where 62 percent of all whites lack college degrees and many are anxious about their jobs in a weak economy.

    "This is a racially sensitive group," he said, referring specifically to whites who earn less than $50,000 a year and did not attend college.

    "They are the quintessential Reagan Democrats," he said. "They feel they've been left" and their resentment can have social and racial overtones.

    In general elections, which pit Democrats against Republicans, the racial sensitivity of white voters has been pronounced and well-documented for decades. It's a chief cause of the realignment of the South, where blacks remained intensely loyal to the Democratic Party as whites moved to the GOP by the millions.

    In the intraparty world of Democratic primaries, however, racial divisions are much less prevalent, and hard to measure. Many white Democrats, especially in the South, tend to be liberal, racially tolerant and usually happy to join blacks in opposing Republicans.

    The Obama-Clinton rivalry may be straining that comity. Some blacks resented remarks Clinton made in New Hampshire, which they viewed as minimizing Martin Luther King Jr.'s role in achieving landmark civil rights laws. And after Obama's South Carolina victory on Jan. 26, former President Clinton seemed to equate the Illinois senator with Jesse Jackson as a candidate who could not draw widespread white support.

    Many blacks felt the Clintons "were trying to use race to their political advantage, to cede the black vote to Obama and take the rest," said David Bositis, senior political analyst for the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, which tracks issues important to black Americans.

    The Clintons said they intended no slights, and many blacks still hold great affection for the former president and his eight-year term. But Hillary Clinton's sharp-elbowed campaign is alienating others, Bositis said, and it could hurt the New York senator in November if she becomes the nominee.

    Bositis said it was unclear whether Obama's black support is driving some working-class whites into Clinton's corner, but he noted the steep drop in Obama's share of the white vote in Ohio compared to Wisconsin. One possible factor other than race, Bositis said, was Clinton's strong support within the Ohio Democratic establishment, starting with the governor.

    One thing is not in doubt: Obama's candidacy and the closeness of the contest are triggering record turnout among black voters. "In many states, the black vote has doubled," Bositis said.

    Similar turnout in Philadelphia's black neighborhoods could help Obama next month. But he would have to make deeper inroads into Pennsylvania's white electorate than he did in Ohio if he is to avoid another solid defeat.

    Meanwhile, Clinton continues to draw about 10 percent to 20 percent of black voters, who sometimes have to defend their choice.

    "She has the most experience," said Elexis Griffin, a black worker at a law office who attended a Clinton fundraiser in Canton, Ohio. "Obama has only been in the Senate three years. I'm not anti-Barack. I'm just pro-Hillary."

    Griffin, who is 25 and considering law school, said, "I sit here almost every single day and hear debating: Hillary or Obama? My closest friends, I have very much influenced their vote for Hillary. They accuse me of being against the social movement. And I accuse them of voting with their emotions and not looking at the facts."
     
    #1 bigtexxx, Mar 9, 2008
  2. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    I thought only blacks cared about race
     
    #2 pgabriel, Mar 9, 2008
  3. Ottomaton

    Ottomaton Member
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    All I read is a bunch of Political Science professors pontificating to hear themselves talk. I see no substance in the story. At all.

    Find me a single white person who voted for Clinton because there were too many black Obama voters, and we have a story. All the polls that I've seen indicat that the traditional working class white voters in places like Ohio were strongly Clinton in the first place, from the beginning. They didn't change.

    In fact, there is only a single professor, probably looking to stir up crap for the book which he is writing, who in any way comments on the headline issue in the story at all.

    [rquoter]
    Ronald Walters, a University of Maryland political scientist who tracks racial trends and is writing a book on Obama, thinks

    [/rquoter]

    [rquoter]
    Moreover, some analysts think

    [/rquoter]

    I've seen no evidence whatsoever of flight from support for Obama by anybody who actually supported him at one point. I think this writer is just looking to get a byline.
     
    #3 Ottomaton, Mar 9, 2008
  4. rocket3forlife2

    rocket3forlife2 Member

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    Well when you have one candidate who is white that said they didn't need the black vote to win.

    Who husband fell asleep at a martin Luther king speech

    Who also kind of downplayed the martin Luther king movement as just words....


    What do you expect?


    There are a lot of black who are voting just because he is black, but there are a lot of women who are voting for Clinton because she is a women...there are also a lot of whites that will vote for her just to keep a black man out of the white house or because they think he is muslium, because of his name ect...


    Then there are other blacks that are voting for him because they believe he is the best out of the two like me. The whole negative campaign has turned al to of blacks away from Hillary because it really shouldn't be about who can manipulate the people with lies the best to get into office.


    When the odds are against a black in the country and other blacks feel like he is being treated unfairly that's just what’s going to happen.


    Let's see obama has half of then women rooting against him for Hillary, some whites because of his color, most republicans voted against him so he will lose, then you have like 705 of the Hispanic population voting against him also...


    Blacks didn't vote for al sharp ton when he ran and if conidliza rice ran blacks wouldn't vote for her either...Obama is just able to connect with black people more then Hillary ever could because she don't seem believable.



    A lot of black people I know feel like the government is krupt and when you have a man that says he is about lifting people up not tearing people down, who is for all people no matter your race, gender, relgion, or party...that message sticks to almost all black people ears more then any any other race because it sounds very martin Luther king like.


    I don't know about you, but thats exactly the kind of stuff I want to hear and see from a president.
     
    #4 rocket3forlife2, Mar 9, 2008
  5. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking

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    The fact that Jeremiah Wright, Obama's pastor and the inspiration behind Obama's book, "The Audacity of Hope", travelled to Libya WITH LOUIS FARRAKHAN to meet with Khadafi is enough to lose Obama that Jewish vote. So yes, there are some whites being driven away from Obama. Wright also called Farrakhan a 'great man'. Tell me why a Jewish voter would vote for Obama when the company he keeps is so openly anti-semitic? As a reminder, Farrakhan called Judaism a "gutter religion" and called Hitler a 'great man'.

    These relationships would scare the piss out of me if I were a Jewish voter concerned about support for Israel. If Obama comes in and weakens the US' support for Israel, the country is toast.
     
    #5 El_Conquistador, Mar 9, 2008
  6. Major

    Major Member

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    Good question. I also wonder why any atheist, Muslim, Hindu, or Buddhist would ever vote for McCain, given that his Christian pastor has said that Jesus is the only way to heaven and everyone else is going to hell.
     
    #6 Major, Mar 9, 2008
  7. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking

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    Major, articulating one's political beliefs is a tad bit different than applauding the life of Adolf Hitler or calling Judaism a 'gutter religion'. Get real.

    And by the way, still waiting on your donation to the site. 9 years and over 11,000 posts and you can't spare even a red cent to help Clutch with the site. Sickening.
     
    #7 El_Conquistador, Mar 9, 2008
  8. Major

    Major Member

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    Certainly. And if Obama had done either of those things, we'd have a problem. But of course, he hasn't. McCain did a rally just last week with a powerful Texas church leader that has called the Catholic Church the anti-Christ. Where's the outrage? I guess Catholic voters shouldn't vote for McCain either.
     
    #8 Major, Mar 9, 2008
  9. ROCKET RICH NYC

    ROCKET RICH NYC Member

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    Enough of the Religion fighting. I don't think Obama or McCain let's their religion dictate their policies for America. However, the question is how much influence do these controversial figures have on them.
     
    #9 ROCKET RICH NYC, Mar 10, 2008
  10. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking

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    The difference, Major, is that Jeremiah Wright is Obama's pastor. He provides spiritual guidance to Obama. Heck, Obama got the title for his book from one of Wright's sermons! The man impacts Obama's thinking and principles. And he is aligned with Louis Farrakhan. HUGE difference between that and some speaker at a joint event's comments. This is so obvious.

    Oh and another thing Major:
    And by the way, still waiting on your donation to the site. 9 years and over 11,000 posts and you can't spare even a red cent to help Clutch with the site. Sickening.
     
    #10 El_Conquistador, Mar 10, 2008
  11. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Member

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    The entire premise is simplistic and ridiculous, and it disregards both of the candidate's merits and weaknesses by pigeonholing everything down to race.

    Obama's underdog strategy has always been to win small states to generate momentum in larger primaries. I don't think either candidate has anticipated the current scenario.
     
    #11 Invisible Fan, Mar 10, 2008
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2008
  12. Major

    Major Member

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    Since you know so much about that relationship, why don't you share? How close are they? What areas of influence does Wright have on Obama's thinking? What role has he played?

    You're simply, yet again, talking out of your ass with no knowledge of the subject you speak of.
     
    #12 Major, Mar 10, 2008
  13. wnes

    wnes Contributing Member

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    Right on.

    What exactly has Obama done for blacks to get their support?

    Obama denigrated black community service co-workers in Chicago Southside by calling them barbaric.

    Obama aligned himself with Chicago slumlord Tony Rezko, helping him secure millions of federal money on his shady housing projects by performing legal and political work for him, while turning a blind eye and deaf ear to the suffering of black tenants -- his very own constituents -- living under squalid conditions in Rezko-managed buildings.

    Obama did nothing to stop University of Chicago Hospital, a not-for-profit hospital where his wife got promotion to VP with hefty pay raise, from terrorizing the uninsured, many of whom are poor blacks, by price-gouging their medical bills.

    I wouldn't vote for Obama if I were black.
     
    #13 wnes, Mar 10, 2008
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2008
  14. Cohen

    Cohen Member

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    Gee, I wonder if other States edged towards Gore because Texans supported Bush?

    Anyway, has it been proven that low-income, non-college degree whites are 'racially sensitive' as the article claims? And if true, would it be Black support of Obama that's causing them to vote Hillary?
     
    #14 Cohen, Mar 10, 2008
  15. Cohen

    Cohen Member

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    And some don't. ;)
     
    #15 Cohen, Mar 10, 2008
  16. rocket3forlife2

    rocket3forlife2 Member

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    "I don't like the fact that all thoes black guys are voting for the other black guy so I'm going to vote for the white women'????
     
    #16 rocket3forlife2, Mar 10, 2008
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