The Guidelines That I Would Use in Trading the #1 Pick

This would fall under the "scary bad" category for the other team.

No team is going to gut its franchise to land Ming. If we had the 4th or 5th pick, would you actually consider trading Steve, Cat and the 4 or 5 for the #1, #15 and Bryant Reeves (I know he retired but he is the only bad contract I can think of that the Griz have had that comes close to the one we signed MO T to)? I highly doubt it.

 

How about shaq and Kobe and the lakers first round pick for Rice and Cato and Ming...

 

The Clippers will not part with Brand and the Grizzlies will not part with Gasol. I see the Clipps offering Maggette, Odom and #8 and Grizzlies offering Swift and #4. But I wouldn't take either one.

 

How would either of those trades benefit the Clips or the Grizz???

Brand and Odom?!?! What motivation would LA have to trade a guy they just aquired 1 year ago and helped turn the entire franchise around???

Gasol and Battier?!?! What motivation would memphis have to trade two proven young stars with small contracts for a great pick, an average pick and an overpriced long contract on a player just coming off an injury??

These trade proposals are getting ridiculous guys.

 

Looks like Manny wants to keep the pick.

 

And I'll say the complete opposite:

The only way that you keep Ming is if you know, without a shadow of a doubt, that he will be able to play for the Rockets for 328 games and all the playoff games over the next four seasons.

..okay...maybe you don't need to know without a shadow of a doubt, but you need some assurance to make you feel confident that he will be available full time for the Rockets.

 

Rice for Olowakandi and Odum works. Combine that with shipping our 1 for their two lottery picks and swapping places in the second round then there is a basis for realistic discussion.

 

Manny,
I agree with your premise, but the trades must be realistic while still using the power of a #1 and #15 in your pocket as well as the quality of the "tradeable/value" players you have while dumping unwanted contracts. I have looked at this from about 100 scenarios and I do not see any way to dump all our unwanted contracts (Cato, Rice, Taylor, Norris) in one shot. The best to hope for is one or two. Three would be simple fantasy.
Now it is possible to make further trades down the line to dump the remaining least desirable contracts at a later date.

For example, lets say you target your worst contracts as:
1) Rice
2) Cato
3) Taylor

Which two have the greatest poosibility of getting moved in one shot while packaging them with the picks and your tradable players with value (i.e. KT, Morris, etc.)

Lets look at facts here.
1) Rice has no value. To trade him you must include another player with value as well as your best pick - #1. Nobody will take on Rice with out the number one and a replacement.

2) Cato has little value. Other than Morris, we do not have much another team would want with Cato. So unloading Cato and Rice in one shot is not very likely.

3) Of our big contracts, Taylor is the only player that represents SOME sort of reasonable value. (This is not saying he is great or even good, just that he does have value) Packaging Taylor with Morris is a very attractive package if picks were included.

Simply stated, I think it is quite realistic to hope to move Rice and Taylor with the #1 and #15 picks, but you will also have to give up players in the process (KT and Morris).

For example:

Would you trade Rice and KT plus the #1 to the Clips for Brand, Kandi the #8 and #12 picks.

Then Trade the #8, #12 and #15 with Taylor and Morris to Memphis for the Battier, Swift and the #4.

(Just an aside, this is a viable trade under the CBA)

This would satisfiy your unload prevision and two quality player provision as well as a pick, but you still are going to have to give up solid players in the process. Nothing is for free even with the power of the #1. Granted, with the #1 we should get more from the trade, but no team is going to gut their roster for a single player or pick. They must get replacement value in the process.

Thoughts?????

 

The only deal I said that I liked regarding the Knicks was the one that had us unloading the 3 worst contracts in Rockets history (Mo, Rice and Cato) along with the #1 for Sprewell, Camby, Othella and the #7. I never said it made sense for the Knicks ...I just thought it was a good trade for us. It would never happen regardless.

 

I think the Rockets will take a three-tiered approach to this (or they should if they aren't morons):

1) Make contacts and study tape about Ming and decide if he really is a true overall #1 and not just the best pick in this year's draft. In other words, is this truly a franchise player or an exotic fantasy? Can he really dominate the league (ala Shaq, AI or KG) or is he merely a better-than-average center (ala Mutombo, Kandi)? Within two weeks, you should be sure of what you have.
If you're certain he fits the first group instead of the second, you take him. Case closed.

2) Publicly state you intend to take Ming, think he's the "next Wilt", will make Houston a force in the league again, etc. That's even if you don't mean it. Nobody's going to pay the price to trade up for Jay Williams or Mike Dunleavy. How well the Rockets sell Ming will drive up the trade value of the pick. In the meantime, you listen to offers, make rather bold trade demands and sniff "we've had better offers" to whatever they proposition. All you need are two bidders and you're in business. It helps if the two suitors are division rivals.

3) If you decide Ming is not the dominant force who will anchor your team for the next ten years, you trade the pick. You start coming down on your asking price a little, still letting them know that there are other (and better) offers out there if the details can be worked out. Around 48 hours before the draft, you cut your deal. Don't forget the NBA has this "draft and trade" concept going to so you can always pick Ming and then announce a trade, if you can take the PR heat. I'd rather do it before the draft though so you don't have to get swallowed up by the media hype on Draft Day.

Of all the viable offers I've seen so far, the Clippers situation is the most appealing and realistic but you never know which ego-starved owner will take the bait and offer something totally outrageous because he read those "next Wilt" comments you put out a few weeks before the draft.

Hopefully, we'll be able to have something left afterwards to get Jerry West off our backs.

 

Dear lord ... this is the most one-sided trade proposal I have ever seen ... to be honest I am somewhat amused that you actually posted it ...

From a Memphis fans View there is no way that I would trade Gasol straight up for the pick ... why give up a great rookie with an even greater upside for a prospect?

I doubt that Memphis would trade Battier straight up for the pick ... not because it would be unfair but because memphis doesnt have enough talent to give up on him in return for an unknown ...

 

I'm with Manny here...I'm keeping that pick unless I get another lottery pick, an established all star, and maybe then some.

Other than getting a Duncan or a Garnett, who I doubt would be offered, the only other possibility I see is the Clippers. I would consider each of these deals:

#1 + Rice for Odom, Olowokandi, Clippers #1 pick

#1 + Rice for Brand, Maggette, #1 pick

I have no idea how that would work salary wise, but I'm sure something could be figured out if it didn't. Other than that, I don't see much else that I would heavily consider.

 

Where will Ming play? Ming will only play in a large city with a large asian pop. - NY, LA, Chicago, San Franciso, Houston. Maybe Seattle. There is no need to speculate about any trade for Ming to Minnesota or Memphis or Cleveland or whatever. NY, LA, LA Clips, Bulls, GS. Do they have anything of value? NY - no. GS - no.
Bulls - eh. LA - Yes! but no way. LA Clips - yes. Only viable deal.

There are a few good clips deals for players and picks. After thinking about it, though, I still pick Yao. One trophy is better than 3 division titles - ask Portland, Sacto, Utah,etc. Yao is kryptonite. He is the Anti-Shaq. If Shaq bulls into Yao 15ft from the basket, it's his foul. Yao and Griffin fly in from the wings when Shaq bulls past Taylor underneath for a swat party.

Yao
Taylor
Griffin
Mobley
Francis

is better than

Kandi
Griffin
Odom
Mobley
Francis

The game is just easier to play. Assuming he's the real deal, and not just stick-boy, don't goof around. Draft Yao Ming.

 

Manny,

I only considered those deals, especially the Kandi/Odom one. I'm not sold on Kandi, but I get the feeling he is an outcast for some reason on that team. I still think he can play like the #1 pick he was. I only do either of these deals if there are a lot of uncertainties about Yao being able to stay in the US.

 

How about this scenario. Jerry West is interested in both Ming and Jay Williams.

Memphis receives
Houston's 2002 #1 overall pick
Houston's 2002 #15 overall pick
Jason Collier

Houston receives
Memphis' 2002 #4 overall pick
Release of 2003 draft pick obligations
Shane Battier

 

None taken Manny, but I never said just the #1 for Odom. The Clips would definitely have to toss in at the very least their 8th pick to make the deal even worth consideration. Personally I wouldn't mind a deal like the one I mentioned in my Trade With Clippers thread.