I was taking a look at some stats at HoopData.com, and something jumped out at me. http://hoopdata.com/teamshotlocs.aspx The Rockets, by a very wide margin, take the fewest shots that aren't at the rim or beyond the arc. So far this season, as a percentage of their total field goal attempts, only 25.2% coming from this in-between range. This is a staggeringly low number. Because we lack a consistent post-threat, and our go to scorer does not like taking pull-up 2-point jump shots, such shots end up being relatively rare for us. To illustrate how far outside the norm we are, I plotted this statistic (%FGA not at rim or outside 3-point line) for every team since the 06/07 season. I've highlighted data points for the Rockets over the years: Interestingly, just last year we shot 47.9% from this in-between range. Without Scola and Martin its no surprise that this number would drop. But even for returning players, there seems to be a pattern of shooting less mid-range 2-point shots this year. Parsons, for example, took 25.3% of his shots from this mid-range last year, compared to only 16.1% this year. Patterson took 80% of his shots from the in-between range last year, but this years its dropped down to 49.5%. Of course, having Harden and Asik (who pretty much only takes shots at the rim) makes a big difference too. Is this a conscious effort by the Rockets to focus on what are, by the numbers, the most efficient shots on the floor? <hr> Update: Results in tabular form for all teams, 06/07 through 2012 (11-24-12): Code: [B]Year Team FGM FGA %FGA[/B] 2013 HOU 64 184 25.2% 2009 NYK 892 2293 32.4% 2012 DEN 695 1832 33.9% 2010 ORL 922 2173 34.0% 2008 ORL 908 2247 35.0% 2012 ORL 624 1813 35.1% 2013 NYK 78 199 35.3% 2010 NYK 993 2461 35.8% 2013 DEN 115 310 36.3% 2008 GSW 1085 2686 36.7% 2013 CLE 100 275 37.2% 2011 DEN 950 2462 37.3% 2009 ORL 948 2396 37.5% 2010 CHA 903 2398 38.0% 2010 HOU 1052 2632 38.0% 2012 NYK 722 2040 38.3% 2007 GSW 1048 2667 38.3% 2007 NYK 923 2461 39.1% 2009 DEN 989 2547 39.3% 2013 SAS 132 302 39.5% 2011 ORL 1022 2538 39.6% 2013 LAL 96 279 39.7% 2007 NJN 1030 2511 39.8% 2009 NJN 1007 2599 40.0% 2007 PHO 1179 2748 40.1% 2008 MEM 1074 2677 40.3% 2008 DEN 1121 2797 40.4% 2013 MIN 91 246 40.5% 2007 DEN 1058 2743 40.8% 2013 DET 109 317 41.0% 2008 LAL 1145 2755 41.0% 2007 LAL 1149 2741 41.2% 2011 NYK 1091 2831 41.3% 2010 CLE 1062 2626 41.3% 2009 CHA 1046 2593 41.4% 2013 BKN 84 205 41.4% 2013 POR 120 303 41.5% 2013 NOR 92 254 41.6% 2009 PHO 1188 2777 41.6% 2012 MIN 806 2265 41.7% 2010 DEN 1111 2785 41.7% 2013 MIA 149 341 41.8% 2013 CHA 103 282 42.0% 2008 HOU 1131 2783 42.1% 2010 PHO 1249 2864 42.2% 2012 CLE 743 2264 42.3% 2007 MIL 1144 2815 42.3% 2009 HOU 1146 2757 42.5% 2008 NJN 1072 2706 42.5% 2013 MEM 124 310 42.6% 2007 HOU 1129 2747 42.6% 2010 UTH 1157 2799 42.6% 2013 MIL 113 289 42.7% 2008 NYK 1135 2870 42.7% 2013 OKC 118 308 42.8% 2008 PHO 1287 2901 42.9% 2010 LAC 1128 2829 42.9% 2009 LAC 1087 2867 43.0% 2008 BOS 1158 2686 43.0% 2012 OKC 903 2252 43.1% 2012 SAC 867 2479 43.4% 2012 POR 923 2355 43.5% 2009 MIN 1132 2932 43.5% 2012 SAS 959 2376 43.5% 2011 LAC 1057 2838 43.6% 2010 IND 1212 2973 43.6% 2010 BOS 1180 2746 43.7% 2008 CHA 1121 2857 43.7% 2007 MEM 1145 2808 44.0% 2013 TOR 117 316 44.1% 2011 HOU 1203 3080 44.2% 2007 MIA 1123 2728 44.5% 2009 PHI 1125 2902 44.6% 2012 NJN 924 2372 44.6% 2010 NOR 1262 3052 44.6% 2009 UTH 1195 2944 44.6% 2010 SAS 1243 2979 44.7% 2008 IND 1225 3123 44.8% 2012 ATL 925 2363 44.9% 2013 ATL 118 278 45.1% 2013 LAC 137 307 45.1% 2008 CLE 1109 3011 45.1% 2010 LAL 1299 3086 45.2% 2009 BOS 1213 2859 45.3% 2009 IND 1306 3196 45.3% 2010 MIL 1266 3145 45.3% 2013 GSW 120 297 45.3% 2012 LAC 955 2432 45.4% 2008 UTH 1268 2989 45.5% 2009 LAL 1351 3165 45.5% 2009 POR 1198 2946 45.5% 2011 SAS 1240 3014 45.5% 2008 SAC 1217 2968 45.6% 2011 GSW 1224 3215 45.7% 2007 SAS 1194 2864 45.7% 2012 MIL 971 2588 45.8% 2007 SAC 1130 2805 45.9% 2011 CHI 1176 3020 45.9% 2009 SAC 1200 3064 46.0% 2013 SAC 115 359 46.1% 2013 PHO 145 414 46.1% 2011 PHO 1261 3157 46.2% 2013 IND 132 374 46.2% 2009 CLE 1212 2976 46.3% 2009 ATL 1209 2972 46.5% 2007 CLE 1156 3093 46.5% 2011 CHA 1154 2965 46.6% 2013 UTH 145 420 46.7% 2010 SAC 1271 3219 46.7% 2007 WAS 1249 3185 46.7% 2011 CLE 1147 3104 46.8% 2011 POR 1153 3085 46.8% 2013 DAL 163 400 46.8% 2007 CHA 1194 3068 46.8% 2010 NJN 1132 3071 46.9% 2010 PHI 1255 3143 46.9% 2012 DAL 992 2531 46.9% 2009 NOR 1210 2977 46.9% 2011 DAL 1312 3034 47.0% 2007 UTH 1239 3011 47.1% 2008 NOR 1315 3194 47.1% 2010 MEM 1310 3252 47.3% 2013 WAS 115 308 47.3% 2012 GSW 996 2579 47.4% 2008 MIL 1317 3190 47.4% 2009 MIA 1309 3142 47.4% 2008 WAS 1200 3138 47.4% 2009 CHI 1307 3237 47.5% 2007 ORL 1124 2885 47.5% 2012 MIA 986 2474 47.5% 2010 OKC 1273 3149 47.6% 2010 GSW 1405 3371 47.6% 2012 HOU 1019 2646 47.8% 2012 CHI 1011 2610 47.9% 2010 ATL 1341 3258 47.9% 2007 ATL 1154 2992 47.9% 2009 MIL 1296 3235 48.0% 2011 OKC 1204 3171 48.0% 2007 BOS 1192 3067 48.1% 2009 DAL 1417 3237 48.1% 2012 DET 923 2519 48.1% 2011 IND 1262 3265 48.1% 2010 TOR 1408 3196 48.2% 2013 PHI 103 355 48.4% 2007 SEA 1304 3207 48.5% 2009 MEM 1248 3053 48.7% 2011 BOS 1232 3035 48.8% 2010 DAL 1401 3299 48.9% 2009 SAS 1374 3176 48.9% 2013 BOS 160 370 48.9% 2010 POR 1287 3148 49.0% 2011 DET 1237 3257 49.0% 2011 UTH 1269 3227 49.0% 2009 GSW 1372 3449 49.1% 2008 PHI 1252 3268 49.2% 2008 SAS 1290 3151 49.3% 2012 WAS 949 2698 49.3% 2008 ATL 1221 3186 49.3% 2007 NOR 1228 3256 49.3% 2011 TOR 1370 3330 49.4% 2007 TOR 1351 3190 49.4% 2010 DET 1308 3264 49.5% 2007 DET 1304 3181 49.6% 2012 PHO 1079 2700 49.6% 2008 CHI 1347 3401 49.7% 2012 TOR 967 2560 49.7% 2011 MIA 1347 3139 49.8% 2011 LAL 1358 3378 50.1% 2010 MIA 1326 3265 50.1% 2008 MIN 1377 3412 50.2% 2008 TOR 1438 3361 50.3% 2011 MIL 1267 3293 50.4% 2007 IND 1297 3308 50.5% 2009 WAS 1324 3360 50.6% 2012 IND 1043 2721 50.7% 2007 DAL 1398 3235 50.8% 2010 CHI 1429 3478 51.0% 2009 OKC 1262 3418 51.1% 2007 CHI 1402 3360 51.1% 2012 LAL 1103 2721 51.2% 2011 MIN 1373 3590 51.2% 2012 BOS 1042 2613 51.4% 2008 MIA 1274 3247 51.4% 2008 DAL 1453 3324 51.4% 2010 MIN 1382 3559 51.4% 2007 POR 1341 3252 51.5% 2011 SAC 1335 3627 52.0% 2012 MEM 1060 2814 52.0% 2011 ATL 1428 3363 52.3% 2011 NJN 1384 3492 52.7% 2008 DET 1427 3450 52.7% 2009 TOR 1475 3495 52.9% 2011 MEM 1421 3597 52.9% 2012 UTH 1084 2886 53.3% 2012 CHA 1001 2823 53.3% 2011 PHI 1405 3617 53.4% 2011 WAS 1344 3678 53.4% 2013 ORL 125 345 53.6% 2010 WAS 1425 3588 53.6% 2013 CHI 146 387 54.2% 2009 DET 1475 3559 54.4% 2007 PHI 1359 3489 54.5% 2011 NOR 1428 3528 55.0% 2012 NOR 1110 2810 55.1% 2007 MIN 1508 3584 55.8% 2008 POR 1522 3657 56.1% 2008 LAC 1453 3630 56.6% 2012 PHI 1218 3157 57.2% 2008 SEA 1581 4021 57.4% 2007 LAC 1526 3715 59.4%
Just staying ahead of the curve in the NBA and exploiting market inefficiencies. If rim/threepointer players become overvalued and in-between players start becoming undervalued, then I think we would go in the other direction.
As discussed in the other forum, lack of an "in-between" game is one of Harden's two biggest weaknesses on offense. On a team level, this imbalance will make the Rockets very easy to defend for opponents that play smart defense.
I think they do try to take as many efficient shots (at rim, 3s and FTs) as possible. However, the extreme numbers we see now may be partially a matter of small sample size. There are some values to these "in between" shots. The threat of them being made helps open up other opportunities. Also, sometimes these are the only shots being conceded by the defense so taking, say, an open 18 footer is better than forcing a drive and turning it over.
Harden seems to hit a decent # of midrange pull-up Js as far as I can tell. Doesn't shoot them frequently, but hits a good enough % of them.
This is likely true. I'd expect this number to trend up towards 35% as the season progresses. Especially if Lin finds his shot and starts taking more mid-range jumpers like last year, and if one of our PFs becomes a bigger part of the offense. Harden may also start becoming more comfortable with the mid-range shot.
Without looking at the data I would imagine Patterson, Lin and Morris take the most in between shots.
Nice post. I think it's worth differentiating between different 'in-betweens.' The number that jumps out at me is that Houston shoots the fewest long 2s (9.7 attempts) per game -- in HoopData, that's the 16-23 ft shot, which is the least efficient. (As expected, Boston is on the other side of the spectrum: 28th in the league, 24.8 attempts from 16-23 ft per game.) I think that's very positive and it is in line with how the coaching staff have wanted the team to play, and partly why Lin has been shooting less midrange and more 3s this season. Aside from the efficiency difference between the long 2 and post-up, the latter also gives more FTs (the most efficient type of shot of all), and can get opposing defenders into foul trouble. In other words, the categories of shots should not just be differentiated by distance to the basket but also by the kinds of shots that lead to FTs, since FTs are just money and have other benefits. An interesting detail from the Knicks game was that when Melo got into foul trouble and had to sit -- which led to a run by Rox -- that was not because he fouled while playing defense but because he committed an offensive foul by pushing off. The overall outcome of the game would prolly not have changed if that hadn't happened, but it's a very glaring weakness that the starting 4 is so poor at drawing fouls and getting to the line -- Ppat has only shot 9 FT after 12 games. Harden is amazing at drawing fouls, and Asik should be getting more FT than he has -- his reverse layups at the rim don't really get that job done. Lin getting more screens and quality screens would also generate more FTs. So far it's a skill of his that hasn't given the sets to fully play out, besides the lack of driving lanes bc of his poor shooting. Nevermind the distance to the basket, it's really FTs that are the most efficient. This is why Lin shooting 3s isn't necessarily more efficient. He's best when he gets to the line often, esp given his shooting woes.
I saw a post game interview with Lin and he basically said that the team considers good shots to be shots at the rim or 3 pointers. Looks like the team is getting better at getting the shots they want.
I expect Lin to take more "stop and pop" shots as his confidence improves, and Harden to do the same as he is forced to expand his game to match increased defensive pressure. These shots are important at very least to keep defenders honest.
Harden and Parsons both prefer 3pt shots and shots at the rim. Lin prefers shots at the rim and mid-range jump shots (off the dribble), but the team's offensive concept has him taking more 3pt shots and less mid-range jump shots. Asik has no game outside the basket area. 2Pat started the year playing on the block, but is now back to shooting these 12-18ft jump shots. Morris gets his baskets mostly on 3pt shots and put backs at the rim. Greg Smith also only shoots at the rim, as does Aldrich. Cook is mostly a 3pt shooter. Douglas can only put up 3pt shots and drive at the rim, he has no in-between game. The result? Very little in-between shooting. A big part the players we have, and I think also somewhat by design. 2Pat is really the only mid-range shooter right now. I think Morris has it in him, but isn't used that way at the moment.
Given that you can force 3-pters, mid range shots or drives to the rim - it's probably a good idea to look for mid-long range 2's less frequently. Have never liked those shots and from our roster make-up it doesn't seem we have anyone particularly good at them anyway. It does, however, make me wonder what Patterson is doing since he's neither taking a significant number of 3's or driving to the rim.
Why is that easy to defend? If our players are making 3s at a solid clip, it only helps things because defenders have to stretch all the way out to the 3 point line to defend. I mean, the entire Rudy T offense for our first championship was the Hakeem post up and 3 point shooting. If players can make open 3s, there are literally no better jumpshot in the entire game.
I disagree, you don't really need an in between game, in fact the in-between game is bad for any team. I mean, just look at the NY-Houston game, we walloped NY with Melo having one of his best "in-between" games ever. It sounds strange to the "eye-test" guys who always see Iverson break someone's ankles and then launch a mid-range jumpshot, but if you think about it, the mid-range shot is the worst shot because a shot at the rim has a higher chance of going in+chance of fouls, while the shot at the 3 is worth 50% more and is just a few steps away. Even worse, as we saw in the NYC game, mid-range shots tend to kill a team's efficiency, that's because all the other players stop moving and watch the iso-person going to work. This is the reason why the Iverson/Melo/Starbury/Francis lead teams never went anywhere, despite those guys putting up major stats. Sure, AI/Melo has had a lot playoff of success, but most of those came on the backs of their Defense, with the offense part dragging the team down. OTH, if all you do is drive to the basket or shoot 3s, then that means everyone will need to cut to the basket and look for passes. More movement=more involvement=more energy from the squad. It's also harder to defend, with everyone moving there is an infinite possible attack scenarios which could happen, instead of some dude massaging the ball while the clock ticks down. I'm not sure why you think not having a mid-range shot makes you easier to defend, there is no defense that can defend the post and yet cover all the 3 pt areas simultaneously, there are only 5 guys who need to cover the entire area. on the other hand, there are multiple zone defenses which can cover the mid-range and post rather effectively, just ask the C's or Thibs how it's done. Last thing on mid-range prowess: When did LBJ win his ring? When he was trying to be like Mike and launched fade aways left and right? Or when he said "**** it", moved to the PF spot and started abusing everyone on the planet?