http://stats.nba.com/featured/playoffs_2014_blazers_rockets.html stats.nba.com posted an interesting preview of the playoff series based on SportVU data collected during the Rockets/Blazers regular season games. A lot of the data is what you'd expect: Harden is a force on offense, Howard/Asik protect the paint well, and TJones has struggled in this matchup. But there's also a couple of surprises. For all the whining that Lillard has done about Beverley's defense, Beverley has not actually done a good job in limiting Lillard's scoring. When matched up against Beverley, Lillard is shooting 52% from the field, and 50% from 3-pt range this season. My memory was that Harden gave up huge points to Wesley Matthews during the regular season, but my memory was wrong. When matched up with Harden, Matthews only shot 38% from the field, and scored 0 points on free throws.
I think I read this analysis on another thread in this forum. That being said, it's an interesting analysis, probably deserving of a stand alone thread. The Howard/Lopez numbers should make every Blazer fan like be ***** themselves. The problem is, our backups are even worse.
One thing I don't like is that the numbers make it seem as if Beverley is worse at stopping Lillard than Lin. But it says nothing about whether Howard or Asik was in the game at the center position when Lin or Beverley was playing. For example, if Dwight was playing the majority of the time with Beverley and Asik was playing the majority of the time with Lin, then maybe Beverley and Lin's numbers against Lillard are more of a reflection on the rim-protector than themselves.
I understand your point, but half of Lillard's points when matched up with Beverley came from 3-point land. I don't think that was Howard or Asik's fault.
Lin is the best option to defend Lillard. But according to eye test and this board, he is a liability in defense and is inferior to PBev. Even the numbers proves it, no one gonna believes. Lol
The question is not just what numbers does Lillard get. The question is what numbers does their offense get when Bev hounds Lillard and gives them less time to run plays. An extra few seconds off the shot clock is time you can't spend running another pick and roll if the first one fails. Even if he is not affecting Lillard's shot, he is still affecting the Blazer's offense.
Honestly, it's quite conceivable that Lin matches up against certain types of PG's than against others. Lillard isn't exactly a high speed, blaze to the rim PG. He's mostly a PnR long range gunner. If you're guarding a gunner, I'd rather have Lin 9/10 times simply due to his advantage in size and length (have to shoot higher to avoid being blocked). Additionally, I'd rather have Lin guard against a good PnR player (like Parker) as he's stronger and less impacted by screens than Beverley. For all Beverley's gifts, I've seen him literally bounce off a few too many screens to feel confident about him playing through heavy contact when chasing a PnR ball handler. Finally, while the numbers do favor Lin, it is a sample size so the level of confidence in any assessment of who can guard Lillard better is debatable. Especially since against both our PG's Lillard has been sub-par at best.
I have noticed a HUGE step up in Lin's defensive efforts the last 6 games. I think he will be a pleasant surprise these playoffs.
Beverley has 1.5" more of wingspan, but identical standing reach (8'2"). However Lin does have the height and weight advantage. At least as of their combine measurements. http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jeremy-Lin-5802/ http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Patrick-Beverley-1132/ So having Lin guard you don't give up on standing reach, but gain in terms of weight and strength. You give up some in terms of general wingspan.
Sorry if I wasn't clear. I was talking more specifically about driving to the basket. For example: Beverley spent about 30 minutes against Lillard while Lin spent about 12. Beverley gave up 17 drives. Lin gave up 10. (That would be equal to 25 if he played as long as Beverley did). Beverley gave up 16 points on those drives. Lin gave up only 4. So Lin was letting Lillard get past him more often... yet Lillard was scoring less on Lin. Why? How? This has me thinking it has something to do with the interior defender.
I agree with this. I have also noticed Beverley has trouble fighting through screens. Lin is better at it.
I find both are kind of crappy at it even tho lin may be better. Question, so when Lin gets screened, or Bev. Who is the person who si supposed to step up to meet the PG/ball handler? I find that almost everytime Lin gets screened, it's already too late to recover and there is no help D (based on memory, so I can be wrong).
I agree, Lin has favorable match ups agains certain types of point guards. I've paid attention this season against the spurs, and it seems to me he does well against T Parker than Beverly. Hopefully McHale will keep the better option on Lillard.
