So you're saying that as long as the sample size reaches Lin and Beverley's minutes played this year, you would agree it's big enough? In that case, On/Off court stat for this season until 1/5 Beverley +7.2 on court, +0.8 off court Lin +2.2 on court, +5.5 off court If you want to go with the eye test, that's fine. But what makes your eye for basketball so amazing that you feel your conclusions are "objective"? That seems odd unless you can provide credentials as an NBA level scout.
Projected differences in wins, based on current defensive and offensive efficiency, as compared to other elite teams Rockets: 50-51 wins Pacers: Defense: +25 wins Offense: -12 wins Season total: +13 wins Heat: Defense: +3 wins Offense: +6 wins Season total: +9 win OKC: Defense: +11 games Offense: -1 games Season total: +10 games Spurs: Defense: +9 games Offense: +2 games Season total: +11 games Blazers: Defense: -3 games Offense: +10 games Season total: +7 games Clippers: Defense: +6 games Offense: -2 games Season total: +4 games Warriors: Defense: +14 games Offense: -8 games Season total: +6 games Who are the pretenders? IMO, Rockets and Blazers. Both teams do not have a championship caliber defense. Who are the true contenders? Besides the defending champ: Pacers, Spurs, OKC, and Warriors. Yes, Warriors! Their defensive efficiency is eye-popping at #3 in the league, despite missing Iguodala for 12 games. Their defense makes them a legit contender this year! Don't be surprised, barring any major injuries, if they keep rising on their seeding.
Historically my eye test has been pretty mediocre. For example, I knew Harden was good, but I had no idea Harden was this good before he arrived here. When I said objectively I meant "not influenced by personal feelings, or interpretations". That is to say looking at stats like TS% and the cool driving stats with sportsvu I think Lin is better offensively than Beverley. Our team has a highly efficient offense and a not so hot defense. So it could be that Bev's defense makes a bigger difference than Lin's offense. On the other hand, Bev's on/off numbers could be affected by the fact that he spends most of his time playing with the other starters, while Lin's time with the starters has been when (for example) Harden is out. This could artificially inflate Bev's on/off numbers compared to Lin. When I say there haven't been enough minutes to compare them as starters, I'm referring to identical lineups. Even when the lineups are identical there are differences in opponents, or injury status of our players, or schedule (e.g. 4th game in 5 days). To account for this, I would like to see a larger number of minutes in otherwise identical lineups.
If you go with this argument, then I can say Lin's only performing better individually and by "eye test" because he plays against backups. See, we can go on and on with this. Every excuse you use to say Beverley isn't better than Lin in a team setting, I can counter with an equally compelling(or worthless depending one's POV) argument to say Lin's individual play isn't actually better than Beverley's. Like I said, you can't have it both ways.
Then you have to also admit that you don't know whether Lin's truly superior to Beverley individually or not, correct? Like you said, Beverley had to play against starters, right? That would theoretically reduce his production efficiency while Lin gets to go off against scrub backups. So do you admit that you're not certain if Lin's a better player than Beverley?
As to individual play, I think Lin is better on offense and Bev is better on defense. But I don't know how to demonstrate that one is better than the other overall. They are so dissimilar that is kind of depends on who they are playing with. I do think it is a plus for the team to have such dissimilar players to be able to play with matchups against other teams.
Defense is our glaring weakness, but I don't like the fact we have gone away from the pick and roll despite leading the league in PnR efficiency.
Thanks durvasa! Really appreciate your reply and explanation. Makes more sense now. Seems you can read my mind. I originally wanted to ask about statistically significant, but afraid I'd sound even stupider than I already was Thanks for answering that too. I think the latest data supports what you said. Just with 1 more game of data (from 13 to 14 games) and 21 more game minutes for this lineup, the DefRtg changed from 109 to 105.3. The current sampling is just too small. That even 1 game can change the result this much. (I am new to this stats.nba page, hope I read it correctly) // data posted before from last week Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard lineup allowed 100.2 points per 100 possessions in 245 minutes across 14 games. Lin-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard lineup allowed 109.0 points per 100 possessions in 167 minutes across 13 games. // latest data Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard lineup allowed 100.2 points per 100 possessions in 245 minutes across 14 games. Lin-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard lineup allowed 105.3 points per 100 possessions in 188 minutes across 14 games.
Last few games our defense hasn't been awful. We are currently 10th in the league in defense, tied with Miami.
I really don't see major issues on our defense or offense. Problems I see are individual player execution. We don't have a coaching problem like everyone is crying about. We have young guys who are executing a bit sloppy. It will probably get better with time - assuming that talent isn't the issue. But you have to think that there is room for hope... Howard: He might not improve in ft shooting, but he's going to get better on those turnovers/offensive fouls Lin: He can definitely get better with more practice and confidence. Little by little. Painfully little by little. Harden - he looks like he is a better player than last year. He's growing for sure Parsons: Definitely think he can improve in many areas Jones - has a long way to go before being a complete player. So everyone has areas to improve. Especially howard who is still learning to play with everyone and feel himself out again as a post player. That process will take a year or more. But the good news is that with all the work left to be done, we are still 11 games over .500. Not bad at all.
I agree with your overall conclusion but man, how can you say that Parsons can improve in many areas in the same breath as Harden looks like he is a better player than last year? Harden, offensively, is playing as well as he did last year but he hasn't improved. And defensively, he has regressed for sure. I don't remember ever really being pissed about his defensive effort last season. And Parsons has steadily improved year after year and is his value to our team is crucial as we saw in the last few games where he sat out. Yes, he can improve but all of the guys can.
The Harden of last year seemed to be a more exciting player. I think his style of play is just changing, maybe to conserve himself? Or more related to all the injuries he's had to endure, so he's had no choice but to change his style?
