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just a word is offline Old 12-13-2012, 02:08 AM   #143
just a word
just a word is Patrick Beverley -- showing a lot of promise
Since: Nov 2012
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So I stumbled on this article at hoopspeak today, talking about Rocket's shot selection this year.

They ran the numbers for % shots for Houston current distribution, and as if they had league average distribution, and running the numbers, purely based on shot selection, Houston is getting more than 5 points better with their current FG%. 82.9 points per game (minus FT) versus 77.7 points per game.

In terms of eFG%, it’s the difference between Houston being 11th at 49.2% and being 20th at 47.5%.
So, whoa, I think, what happens if Houston's current shot distribution happens with league average FG%?

If I ran the numbers correctly, that equals in best case scenario (ie. improving all FG% to league average except the 10-15ft where Houston has slightly better FG%) 86.6 points, an almost 4 point difference, and an eFG% of 0.5138. Which, if this is current, means that the Rockets would be 6th in the league. Instead of it's current 12th.

ORB% is 12th, FT/FGA is 6th... but 25th in TOV%

Given that it's a super young team (ie. pass miscommunications) with super young players (ie. young player mistake TO's), I expect the TOV% to improve to at least average.

Given how hard all the starters seem to work, I wouldn't be surprised that they all continue improving their shooting, especially on break/off-season.

tldr; good things should happen if we all just have a bit of patience and watch this team improve.

"...enjoy the Rockets’ moment as a fragile little sprout, because basketball’s version of Audrey II will be a razor-toothed man-eater soon enough."
— Ben Detrick [x]