So I stumbled on this article
at hoopspeak today, talking about Rocket's shot selection this year.
They ran the numbers for % shots for Houston current distribution, and as if they had league average distribution, and running the numbers, purely based on shot selection
, Houston is getting more than 5 points better with their current FG%. 82.9 points per game (minus FT) versus 77.7 points per game.
In terms of eFG%, it’s the difference between Houston being 11th at 49.2% and being 20th at 47.5%.
So, whoa, I think, what happens if Houston's current shot distribution happens with league average FG%?
If I ran the numbers correctly, that equals in best case scenario (ie. improving all FG% to league average except the 10-15ft where Houston has slightly better FG%) 86.6 points, an almost 4 point difference, and an eFG% of 0.5138. Which, if this
is current, means that the Rockets would be 6th in the league. Instead of it's current 12th.
ORB% is 12th, FT/FGA is 6th... but 25th in TOV%
Given that it's a super young team (ie. pass miscommunications) with super young players (ie. young player mistake TO's), I expect the TOV% to improve to at least average.
Given how hard all the starters seem to work, I wouldn't be surprised that they all continue improving their shooting, especially on break/off-season.
tldr; good things should happen if we all just have a bit of patience and watch this team improve.