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Iranians may be ready to vote Ahmadinejad out of power

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by underoverup, Jun 11, 2009.

  1. underoverup

    underoverup Member

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    i think everyone is getting tired of Ahmadinejad's borderline insanity.

    http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-election12-2009jun12,0,7170042.story

    Iranians ready to decide presidency -- and maybe much more

    Reporting from Tehran -- After an exuberant campaign season, voters across this country of 70 million head to the polls Friday in a fiercely contested presidential election with potentially broad domestic and international repercussions.

    Washington and capitals around the world are tensely anticipating the outcome of the vote, which pits incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad against reformist Mir-Hossein Mousavi and two other challengers. The Islamic Republic and the West are at odds over Tehran's nuclear program and support for militant groups that oppose Israel. Pro-U.S. Arab leaders have decried Iran's rising ambitions.

    The next president, analysts say, will play a key role in formulating Iran's response to the Obama administration's offer of comprehensive talks after a 30-year cold war between Tehran and Washington, which is rooting for Ahmadinejad to lose.

    "There's a hope that if Ahmadinejad is not reelected this might facilitate engagement with Iran, specifically on the nuclear issue," said Ali Reza Nader, an analyst at the Rand Corp. "Ahmadinejad's rhetoric and style has an effect on U.S.-Iran engagement. Mousavi is seen as an easier candidate to deal with by certain segments of the [U.S.] foreign policy establishment."

    For Iranian voters, the election has emerged as a referendum on Ahmadinejad, pitting those who support his populist economic policies and fiery international posture against those angered by his conservative social policies and his perceived damaging of Iran's relations with the West.


    Polling numbers are scarce and unreliable. No independent pollsters operate in Iran. Ahmadinejad supporters say he'll easily clobber Mousavi, his chief challenger in Friday's balloting. Mousavi's supporters say their polls show Ahmadinejad will lose by a double-digit margin. Neither details sample sizes or margins of error.

    Results will largely hinge on turnout among eligible voters, estimated at 46.2 million by the Interior Ministry. The more people who vote, the better Mousavi's chances, analysts say. The poor and pious and rural voters who favor Ahmadinejad for his populist giveaways and low-interest loan policies tend to dutifully wait in long lines at the polls. The young, educated middle-class urbanites who oppose Ahmadinejad tend to stay home or get discouraged by the slow process.

    Election officials are planning for a record turnout, placing ballot boxes in 130 countries, including Iraq and the U.S., where two dozen polling stations will be set up. Results are supposed to be announced within 24 hours after polls close between 6 p.m. and midnight.

    If Ahmadinejad is reelected, the West will look hard to see whether his government is prepared to tone down his rhetoric and enter into talks over Iran's nuclear program. Some of his supporters and enemies say he has already tried to readjust his policies and rhetoric, but most say he will not budge on the nuclear issue and that negotiations will fail.

    "Ahmadinejad says 'Come here and let's debate. Let's argue,' " said Ahmad Bakhshayeshi, a political scientist and supporter of conservative candidate Mohsen Rezai. "But the U.S. isn't going to debate anything with us. Mousavi, on the other hand, wants to negotiate."

    If Mousavi wins, many wonder whether Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will give him leeway to broker a deal with the West. Khamenei wields ultimate authority over critical matters of state, such as the nuclear program.

    Regardless of the outcome, the raucous campaign has unleashed new forces into the Islamic Republic's normally staid political culture. Deep simmering fissures within the establishment emerged in televised debates between the candidates. Young and old poured into the streets to voice their displeasure with the policies of Ahmadinejad, whose attachment to the ideologically strident and militant values of the early years of the 1979 revolution has alienated many among the voting blocs of young people, the middle class, the educated and women.

    "Certain energies have been released and certain new patterns have emerged," said Ali Akbar Mahdi, professor emeritus of social science at Ohio Wesleyan University and the author of five books on Iran and the Middle East. "It'll be interesting to see how it will evolve after the election, or how it will be suppressed."

    Ahmadinejad broke new ground by publicly accusing some of the system's top clerics of corruption. That led the country's top power broker, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, to demand that Khamenei rein in Ahmadinejad or risk unrest.

    Both the clashes between the titans and the colorful street displays have drawn ordinary people into debates about nuclear energy, the Arab-Israeli conflict and relations with the U.S. Even conservatives admit it will tough to put the genie back in the bottle.

    "These are signs of the growth and health of our Islamic democracy," said Mohammad-Kazem Anbarlui, editor of the pro-Ahmadinejad newspaper Resalat. "It's not who runs in an election that counts. It's who participates."
     
  2. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    The president doesn't have much power in IRAN. Its the supreme leader/ clerics that make the real decisions.
     
  3. GlenRice

    GlenRice Member

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    still Ahmadinejad will win
     
  4. Rocket River

    Rocket River Member

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    Will it make a difference? What is the possibility of getting someone worse?

    Rocket River
     
  5. underoverup

    underoverup Member

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    mousavi is a lot closer to moderate than ahmadinejad even if the clerics are still running the country it will be a step in the right direction imho.
     
  6. Ottomaton

    Ottomaton Member
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    There are 4 candidates, but the only two that have a chance to win are Mousavi and Ahmadinejad. In the latest polls, the largest group, something like 30%, still say they are 'undecided' so it is pretty wide open at this point. If nobody gets an absolute majority of the votes tomorrow, there will be a runoff election next Friday.

    [rquoter]
    Thursday, June 4, 2009

    Iran Presidential Election: Mousavi's Platform

    The following is an abridged version of Iranian presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi's national address broadcast by IRIB channel 4 today [Press TV, 4 June 2009].

    Freedom of Information

    "It is in the interest of the nation to have free access to all sorts of information."

    "Accessing government information is very difficult. I teach at university. There are instance at the universities where students cannot even get access to non-confidential information. I sometimes had to send letters to authorities in this regard but received no replies."

    "We should move towards a state in which the government is bound to provide the citizens with any information -- Military and security information should be the only exceptions."

    "The country's development is not possible without the freedom of the media and the press."

    "The only limits for the media should be those clearly stated in the Constitution."

    Iran's Nuclear Program

    "Regarding Iran's nuclear program, the country has a 'general policy'. With respect to that policy, all the achievements, approaches and progress that have been made should not be abandoned."

    "There are two issues regarding our nuclear program: the first is the use of nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, which is in our national interests and thus cannot be abandoned. The second issue is what some countries say about possible diversions in our nuclear program. This is what we are ready to discuss with other countries. "

    Relations with the United States

    "Before the Obama administration, an imminent attack on Iran was the headline of all American newspapers. However, it should be stressed that the US refrained from attacking Iran because of its fear of our nation and its resistance."

    "The US has changed its tone. Starting relations with the US is not a taboo, should they practically change their stance."

    "Iran is not a friend of the US, but America is an influential country in the world with great economic and military capabilities. It is right that we are a powerful nation, but our power should not lead us to act unreasonably. We can not face the US alone. "

    Economy

    "We should create an economic revolution to fight inflation. The private sector is a vital part of our plans to revive the country's economy."

    "The oil industry should improve. Right now our economy is solely restricted to oil exports without realizing that the oil industry is dependent on other economic sectors. "

    "Stable economic policies will help Iran to attract foreign investment. Constant changes in managerial level in the country's financial bodies -- such as the central bank -- will definitely harm the economy."

    [/rquoter]

    [rquoter]
    Wednesday, June 3, 2009

    Presidential Debates: Ahmadinejad vs. Mousavi

    In the second night of televised presidential debates, the incumbent, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, faced former premier and his main rival Mir Hossein Mousavi. Ahmadinejad tried not to debate Mousavi directly, but instead kept attacking former presidents Mohammad Khatami and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, as if he was running against them.

    Ahmadinejad accused Khatami and Rafsanjani of masterminding a plot to oust him from of power. He specifically accused Rafsanjani of sending a message to one of the kings of the neighboring countries, understood to be the Saudi monarch, in which he had told the king not to worry about Ahmadinejad, because “his term is over in 6 months.” Ahmadinejad did not produce any proof for his accusation.

    Mousavi criticized Ahmadinejad for attacking the former presidents who were not even present in the debate. Mousavi observed that Ahmadinejad was using the tactic to shift the focus of the debate away from Mousavi’s criticism of Ahmadinejad administration’s policies.

    In the sharpest attack against Ahmadinejad, Mousavi said he prefered the country to be managed not based on adventurism, instability, theatrics, superstition, secrecy, egotism, extremism and lack of regard to laws, but instead he preferred a management style based on calmness and sobriety, realism, transparency, cooperation and moderation.

    On foreign policy, Mousavi mocked Ahmadinejad of hallucinating that his administration was controlling the world and accused him of sloganeering instead of managing the country’s foreign policy. Mousavi gave the example of the arrest of British marines off the Iranian coast two years ago, in which the administration elevated international tension over the incident by announcing that the British will be tried and executed.

    The debate got nasty as Ahmadinejad accused Mousavi’s wife, Zahra Rahnavard, of going to school to obtain two masters degrees while serving in the government and entering a PhD program without passing the required entrance exams. Mousavi called Ahmadinejad’s personal attack on his wife an “immoral” move.

    [/rquoter]
     
  7. Ubiquitin

    Ubiquitin Member
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    I see Ahmadinejad getting re-elected tomorrow.
     
  8. Pete Chilcutt

    Pete Chilcutt Member

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    Hopefully it will be Mousavi..like someone mentioned earlier, he is more moderate and is the right step for us to take (iranians)

    Chilcutt
     
  9. Dairy Ashford

    Dairy Ashford Member

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    I don't think the country-folk'll stop lynching teenage girls for dry-humping just yet, but maybe they'll put down the core rods and yellow cake, and just send gift certificates and Supersoakers to Hizbollah. Baby steps for now.
     
  10. BobSura

    BobSura Member

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    The Iranian government is at best a farce government, the intrigues to which this government is formed is actually a common line towards the Supreme leader rather than that of free elections, the final say though hard line or liberal it may be is maid by the Azeri cleric Khamenei. If you watch closely, a speech a few months back given by Mahmoud, he was quite open to dialogue with Obama, this changes after Khamenei and his opium laced speech.

    Rafsanjani is the most corrupt individual in the entire world, he makes war criminals look like saints and Khalkhali look like a boy next door. But, I have to admit Khalkhali was a sick b*stard to begin with. Every death in the republic including those of the children of the Khomeini could be traced to Rafsanjani.

    Most Iranians are easily swayed by sweet words and a bunch of high falooting promises, during 1979, Khomeini gave promises from free oil to health care, iran ended up with a war with iraq, a deficit and its currency not being worth the paper it is printed in.
     
  11. BobSura

    BobSura Member

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    Mousavi appears as a moderate but he is as hard line as this idiots that the Ayatollah has assembled to run for the election. In iran, they have a system in which there is an approval first by Khamenei before they could run for any election.
     
  12. BetterThanI

    BetterThanI Member

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    Well, it is pretty hot over there. Supersoakers would come in handy. :D
     
  13. Surfguy

    Surfguy Member

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    Americans voted for change. Will Iranians vote for change?

    In my viewpoint, if Iranians continue to vote for hardliners like Ahmadinjead, then the confrontations with the West will continue unabated until...eventually...there might just be a war. If Iran thinks it is in their best interests to continue to be confrontational to the West, then at some point these issues were trying to resolve diplomatically will be resolved by force. It cannot go on like this for another decade IMO...especially with them churning out nuclear material left and right unabated.

    The Iranian people themselves, especially their younger generation, remind me a lot of Americans. I see a lot of them wanting freedom of expression and they like a balance of a culture influenced by the West but in balance with their practice of Islam.

    What is it going to be? More confrontation...or a shift in relations to where we actually can turn a corner for more peaceful relations?
     
  14. moestavern19

    moestavern19 Member

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    Have you heard of the movie Persepolis?

    Its worth checking out, gives the perspective of a young Iranian girl growing up in the midst of the Iranian revolution. Very artfully done, animated in black and white.
     
  15. underoverup

    underoverup Member

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    great turnout, they've extended the voting deadline by an hour........

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article6486939.ece

    High turnout in Iranian election boosts challenger to President Ahmadinejad

    Allies of the moderate candidate challenging President Ahmadinejad in today's Iranian election claimed they were on course for victory with a sense of change and enthusiasm infecting long lines of people queuing to vote.

    Observers suggested that turnout was at its highest for almost three decades, which was expected to favour Mir Hossein Mousavi, a former prime minister who wants better relations with the West and a more liberal, progressive domestic agenda.

    Voting was extended by one hour to 7pm (1430 GMT) because of heavy queues at polling stations, said the Interior Ministry.

    One of his aides claimed he was polling well enough today to win the election outright by securing more than half of the vote and avoiding the need for a second round run-off.

    “I can say that based on our surveys . . . Mousavi is getting 58-60 per cent of the vote and we are the winner,” said Sadegh Kharazi, an ally of Mr Mousavi.

    An adviser to Mr Ahmadinejad, Ali Akbar Javanfekr, immediately dismissed the claims. “This is a psychological war they launched to influence voting,” he said.

    The results will not be announced until tomorrow, but many of Mr Mousavi’s supporters claimed that the only way the President could now maintain power was to fix the vote.

    It is widely believed that the 2005 election was marred by fraud and experts estimate that up to four million votes could be rigged this year, however, with the turnout so high, even that may not be enough.

    Mr Ahmadinejad's other opponents in the election, including the liberal cleric Mehdi Karoubi and Mohsen Rezaie, a former Revolutionary Guard leader, appealed to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Iranian Supreme Leader, to ensure there is no vote rigging.

    After casting his vote in a white ballot box, Mr Khamenei urged Iranians to remain calm. “As far as I see and hear, passion and motivation is very high among people,” he said. “If some intend to create tension, this will harm people."

    Mr Mousavi's allies suggested that a discredited victory for the incumbent could spark riots and chaos on the streets.

    That warning was echoed throughout Tehran where hundreds if not thousands of optimistic voters queued outside each polling station in stifling conditions from early this morning.
     
  16. mc mark

    mc mark Member

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    An interesting sidenote to the election --

    US Right-Wing Neocons Rooting For Ahmadinejad Win

    American Enterprise Institute's Michael Rubin told National Review's Kathryn Jean Lopez it might be better for Ahmadinejad to win, because a loss might give Obama the impression that diplomacy was working.

     
    #16 mc mark, Jun 12, 2009
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2009
  17. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    GO GO MODERATES !!!!

    DD
     
  18. Surfguy

    Surfguy Member

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    Iran's president is just a puppet. Other than for Iran's image, is it really going to matter? Doesn't their Supreme Leader ultimately make the final decisions? That just makes the presidential election a fake stab at democracy but, ultimately, it's a dictatorship. Correct?
     
  19. mc mark

    mc mark Member

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    The BBC has a good primer.
     
  20. Major

    Major Member

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    CNBC is reporting that the reformer won in a landslide...
     

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