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Lawson trade

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by jayfree, Jul 10, 2015.

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  1. Disciple of RP

    Disciple of RP Contributing Member

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    Sad
    [​IMG]
     
  2. malakas

    malakas Member

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    ah..so no prison.
     
  3. alin86

    alin86 Member

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    Marc J Spears:
    The Nuggets were asking for a first-round pick and a young player for Lawson in trade talks just days prior to his latest arrest, one league source said. Even prior to Lawson's latest arrest there was little to no interest from teams, another source said.
     
  4. J Sizzle

    J Sizzle Member

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    LOL

    I would love Ty Lawson on this team, but the Nuggets are drunk if they think they were getting two quality assets for him even before the arrest. Of course there was no interest.
     
  5. Rocketsmanhk

    Rocketsmanhk Member

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    Give them T-Jones and Papa. Get it done Morey!!
     
  6. oogie boogie

    oogie boogie Member

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    I don't want Lawson on the team anymore. His drinking habits can be very costly. Great player and definitely worth a 1st and one young player, but he's just too much of a trouble maker off the court.
     
  7. Clown Baby

    Clown Baby Member

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    we rely on James so much

    Offensively, we count on James so much as a ball-handler. I think you could argue that no one player was more valuable to his team on offense than Harden was to his.

    These are our top 6 minute getters on the team and next to their name is the On/Off rating those guys had on the offensive end of the floor this past season...

    Code:
    [B]Net Off. Rtg	On	Off	Net[/B]
    [COLOR="Red"]Harden		110.6	96.6	+14.0[/COLOR]
    Ariza		107.1	107.1	+0.0
    Motiejunas	106.8	107.4	-0.6
    Beverley	107.7	106.7	+1.0
    Terry		105.4	108.3	-2.9
    Brewer		107.9	106.6	+1.3
    Based on the on/off data, it's obvious who our most important offensive player is. Our offense falls off the face of the planet when James hits the bench. For perspective, the 76ers offense had a league-worst 95.5 ORtg and our Rockets barely scored at a higher rate than that when Harden was on the bench.

    None of our other players show a real impact in terms of on/off stats on offense. An ORtg of 105.6 is the league average, and our Rockets maintain an above-average mark when all of the other top 5 minutes getters sit on the bench.

    So 76ers bad on O when Harden sits, no worse than league average when anyone else sits
    . Harden's +14.0 On/Off mark is one of the highest in the leagues, but what makes it stand out even more is the fact that none of his teammates who received big minutes also have BIG On/Off numbers on offense. It really shows what a one-man show he is when it comes to creating for himself and others in this offense.

    After I saw the Rockets' numbers, I wanted to see the On/Off Offensive stats for the Top 6 minutes getters of the other top teams in the league.

    Code:
    [COLOR="Black"][I]Net Offensive Rtg On/Off[/I][/COLOR]
    [B]Team	#1min	#2min	#3min	#4min	#5min	#6min	[/B]
    LAC	+19.9	+16.4	+10.2	+14.0	+10.9	-4.0
    GSW	+14.3	+8.5	+10.5	+1.4	-1.6	+3.4	
    [B][COLOR="Red"]HOU[/COLOR] 	[COLOR="Red"][U]+14.0[/U]![/COLOR]	[COLOR="Red"]+0.0	-0.6	+1.0	-2.9 	+1.3	[/COLOR][/B]
    ATL	+12.1	+6.5	+2.7	+4.3	+2.4	-5.2		
    OKC	+10.9	+1.3	+3.2	-1.9	+2.6	-2.1
    CLE	+10.3	+4.8	+12.3	+3.6	+3.3	-4.5
    
    MEM	+7.7	+4.5	+7.3	+5.9	+3.4	-3.8
    POR	+7.2	+7.9	+4.0	+1.4	+3.2	-2.9
    NOP	+6.8	+7.8	+1.4	-3.1	+2.3	-1.6
    WAS	+5.4	+4.1	+6.3	+3.1	+2.7	-2.5
    SAS	+5.3	+0.2	+5.5	-0.8	+3.0	-0.2
    
    DAL	+1.3	+0.1	+4.2	+3.2	+1.8	+0.2
    CHI	+0.3	+4.0	-2.3	+4.1	+1.8	-1.3
    TOR	-1.2	+5.8	-3.4	-7.1	+1.8	+7.1
    Look at that, those are all the relevant teams in the NBA last year. And not a single one of them depended more on one offensive player. The Thunder are the only other NBA team this year who show a similar dependence on one offensive star, but since James is a better offensive cornerstone than Westbrook the difference was even more noticeable with Houston.

    Harden with a +14.0 mark, while none of the other Top 6 minutes getters on the team has a mark above +1.3. That really stands out because every single other relevant team in basketball this year had a player atleast 2 players who had a +2.0 mark on basketball outside of the #1 mins player.


    Look at GSW and LAC, the only two teams who showed a bigger offensive dependence on their #1 min getters. For Golden State, you can see how the #2 and #3 mins getters (Green and Klay) also have a serious impact on the offensive end. Curry is the engine of that O, but he's not the only piece who makes a bigtime difference on that end. CP3's +19.3 mark is incredible, but taking a look at the rest of the Clippers top mins getters shows you how top heavy those guys were. That entire lineup with Griffin and Jordan and Redick is just incredible on offense, while their bench is just awful which is why their ORtg falls apart.

    None of the other teams depend on one player to be so valuable on offense. The balance of the Spurs' roster really shows up in this metric since there's no one player who has a monster impact on the Spurs' offense.

    We have a very intriguing team. Finished 2nd in the WC regular season despite injuries, finished 2nd in the WC playoffs despite injuries. With Dmo/Jones/Smoove/Dwight/Capela, we have a really deep stable of bigs who each bring something unique to the table. Ariza/Brewer/KJ/Dekker would also make for a really intriguing group of wing athletes who can all run and jump, led by Ariza and his valuable 3nD game. But our clear weakness as a team is the fact that we have no secondary creator at all which kills us when Harden goes on the bench.

    WHERE LAWSON COMES IN:

    James was the runner-up in the MVP race for a reason. The man means everything to our offense. We fall apart when he is out of the game, and when he's in the game our offense can go stagnant at times due to revolving around him too much.

    James played 36.8 MPG last year. If we had a better secondary creator like Lawson, I don't see why we couldn't bring Beard down to 35 MPG. I'd play Lawson 28 MPG and Beverley 20-22 MPG.

    That leaves 13 MPG that Lawson can come be the #1 offensive creator for. And make no mistake, Lawson is a very valuable offensive player (+11.0 Ortg on/off) who can really do some damage with a finisher like Dwight inside. Lawson/Brewer fastbreaks would also have the potential to be a huge asset in terms of getting easy buckets when James is sitting on the bench. If we had Lawson, our O wouldn't turn into the 76ers O when Harden sits. They'd remain at a respectable level at the very least, maybe even league average or better.

    So with 13 of Lawson's mins coming with Harden out of the game, that would leave only roughly 15 MPG for Lawson to play next to Harden. I can understand the concerns people have for that backcourt defensively, but Ariza/DMo/Dwight is a great defensive combo behind them that will limit the damage that backcourt gives up. This is the reason why we pay Dwight the big bucks, his rim protection can really help protect a Lawson/Harden backcourt defensively.

    And I think Harden/Lawson have the potential to play really well on offense off of each other for those 15 mins. I think Harden's catch-n-shoot and cutting skills would be utilized more with Lawson, leading to a higher FG% for the Beard than we've seen in recent years. Lawson and Harden can both suck in defenses and set each other up for some open shots. A Lawson/Harden backcourt has a lot more firepower than a Bev/Harden backcourt.

    I would tell Lawson straight up that he wouldn't be a 35 MPG full-time starter here. He'd be a 28 MPG part-time starter/6th man who would be the sparkplug when Harden is sitting out and provide a different offensive look next to Harden when they're both in. I think this would allow us to unleash a more energetic Bev who could make more of an impact on D with less playmaking responsibility. If Lawson would rather play 35 MPG for a bad team, let him. But this is the best spot for him in terms of Championship contention + Minutes by far.

    Lawson is an idiot. All these DUIs and all these stories about him indicate that he is an immature brat. He's definitely a potentially toxic character but I think the risk is definitely worth the reward, because he could be the guy that puts us over the top as a true Championship-contender. His value is rock-bottom right now and I think he just makes too much sense for us even if he has his negatives.
     
    6 people like this.
  8. Pen15clubber

    Pen15clubber Member

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    Damn I like that
     
  9. cbk41

    cbk41 Member

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    Y'all think Brew could talk so sense into Lawson?
     
  10. Pen15clubber

    Pen15clubber Member

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  11. PhiSlammaJamma

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    Although I think Lawson improves the team, and the risk is low from a basketball standpoint, I think he has a problem that has not yet reached it's low. Once you start missing practice then it's impacting your job and as witnessed his personal life too. It may be a lifestyle choice, I get it, but technically he's likely addicted at this point given what happening to him professionally and legally. It's a downward spiral. If we do pull the trigger I think we would expect more of the same without any treatment. plenty examples of guys like Mullin who find recovery. So I'm not against it. But for Lawson to be our guy I think he does need help to get there. I would pass and just get some young pg in here next year.
     
  12. dlite316

    dlite316 Member

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    Some nice work and sound logic. Agree.
     
  13. MistaK

    MistaK Member

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    Iverson disagrees with you :grin:
     
  14. basketballholic

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    Bingo.


    I told you they would have traded Lawson if they could have gotten one asset in return, either a youngster or a decent pick. They were offered N-O-T-H-I-N-G but junk for him. And one of those deals I'm sure they're regretting not taking today.
     
  15. Baqui99

    Baqui99 Contributing Member

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    You'll get nothing and like it!

    [​IMG]
     
  16. Zoplicone

    Zoplicone Member

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    I mean, if josh smith was re-signed and Dmo considered healthy, I don't see why we wouldn't risk it with T Jones and a pick.
     
  17. Zoplicone

    Zoplicone Member

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    And kostas obviously
     
  18. ROXTXIA

    ROXTXIA Contributing Member

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    Depends. If he's drinking to excess in large part because he's unhappy in his current professional situation (no-direction franchise), that might be one thing, but his string of dumbass incidents could obviously indicate a problem the Rockets don't want on their club. And I think Harden is better off without club-rat teammates.

    But if Morey, Gersson, and the like decide he isn't irredeemable, well....
     
  19. micah1j

    micah1j Member

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    That is what they were asking for before this DUI. A young player and a 1st rounder. Maybe a second rounder now.
     
  20. Mr Chuck Norris

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    What deal Jopat? I want to hear this one.
     

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