[ClutchFans] Houston Rockets Salary Cap Update: 2015 Offseason Pre-Draft Edition

Excellent article as always Bima!

-Brewer: I think the Rockets resign him.

-Smith: I think the Rockets offer the 2.5M deal. But don't go into the MLE. It is take it or leave it. I hope he stays.

-K.J.: Likely gone, but we'll see.

-Beverley: Toss up. Rockets realize the importance of Defense at the PG position. The Rockets don't want to lose an asset. I am sure they will make their best attempt to sign. Even if it is a "creative contract" as already mentioned (e.g. 2/24M). BUT, we know how Morey thinks and he is NOT going to overpay (paint himself in a corner) on a deal. If the dollars and years are too much, Morey will walk away.

-LLull: From all indications, it sounds like the Rockets are making a full court press for Llull with the MLE. I am all for this. Hope it happens.

-Trades: Will the Rockets move #18,TJones & Kpap+Prigs+Dorsey filler contracts for Ty Lawson, Kyle Lowry, Ricky Rubio? Should be interesting to watch. Will the Rockets use #18+Tjones and move up in the draft?

Bima, great point you brought up that the Rockets can make a trade at the draft, but not consummate it until July when the cap/contract dollars go up.

 

Someone mentioned the Rockets interest in Marc Gasol. Would be interested to see if we are trying to pitch a scenario where we are reuniting Llull, Gasol and Rubio. Not sure if the Rox are still in love with Rubio though... the dude has a terrible shot and is signed to a 4 yr/$55M deal.

 

Rubio's deal starts at 12M. Same as Lawson & Lowry. Guys, that is a solid contract.

Dragic is looking at starting at 20M. When Mike Conley is a FA next year, guess his contract terms.

The board is going to go INSANE this summer and especially next summer with the contract terms with these FAs. We can't compare the "salary structure" of "how it was" or "how it currently is" when things are changing.

It is going to be beyond laughable how underpaid guys like Harden/Curry will be.

 

Bima..if prigs retire his contract cant be traded right?

 

So PatBev is gone. No way we are paying 8 million a year.

 

In regards to Brewer & PatBev:

Letting them walk really stings for the coming season as you not only lose the talent / play on the court but you also lose the money over the cap that they represent with no way to recoup that cap space.

Matching PatBev to me seems like a no brainer even if it is for $5-8m as he can always be moved later but you cant generate that cap space otherwise.

Keeping Brewer is much the same scenario , retain him using bird rights or lose the cap space for nothing with only min salary exceptions or the MLE to replace him with which severely limits what other moves you can make such as but not limited to Sergio Llull.

Ideally I think you'd get Terry to stick around on a two year deal with the second not guaranteed , have Smith accept the $2.049m minimum , retain Brewer with his bird rights , sign Llull to the MLE & still have #18 , KPap , Prigioni , Dorsey & Jones to fill in the rest of your roster needs.

 

No sorry I have it right here

"PatBev will get 8 million per year - Bima"


See the quotes? Boom.

 

Agreed. I think a Bev/LLull combo would be solid at PG.

 

If the Rockets made it to the Finals and/or won the championship last year, Les would have matched any offer for Parsons.

PLUS, it's not like the Warriors will need to wait on offering Green their own max contract because they are trying to preserve cap space. They won't have cap space.

The Warriors are going to sign Green, likely to a max contract...

The Warriors are going to be good for a while.... the only way around that is if they get injured themselves... which is a possibility considering Curry and Bogut's injury history.

 

After thinking about this I would be ok with signing Lull with the MLE, letting Brewer go and using the money saved from Jet and Brew to resign Mcdaniels. I loved Brewer's energy but that kind of strength only works in the regular season...in the playoffs the fact that he overplays on D and can only score in transition got exposed. Mcdaniels has a ridiculous ceiling, I see a lot of Wilson Chandler in the kid so I hope we keep him to be Ariza's backup and eventual successor.

 

You don't "save any money" per se with letting Brewer go. You lose an asset.

Llull and KJ are the key principals vying for the MLE. And to an extent Josh Smith. If you are high on KJ and want to keep him, then you might have to pass on Llull.

Rockets have Brewer's & Terry's bird rights and can sign them without touching the MLE.

 

The Llull situation is the most interesting to me.

For one, how good is he? I have no freaking clue. If I'm guessing, I'd say if he came over he'd clearly be #1 on the PG depth chart and his great year 1 in the NBA case would be 12-15 ppg, 4-7 apg, decent shooting, decent defense. Certainly an improvement. And certainly if you could resign Bev and he could stay healthy, gives you nice PG depth.

For two, regardless of how good he is, will he come over? If I'm guessing, I'd say he doesn't want to come over. He's incredibly popular there, is one of the best players in that league, makes a bunch of money, and plays on a team with two other guards who tried the NBA and just didn't like it.... who are whispering in his ear.

I'd love to add him, but not at the expense of passing on a good deal for Lawson or Lowry. And if the get Lawson or Lowry... it's highly unlikely they add Llull. He definitely doesn't want to come over to be the clear backup PG.

If DM, Mchale and company really think Llull is a trans-formative backcourt tandem with Harden... in the sense that Harden is clearly asking for help at a running mate, then I trust them, and it does at least make the task from there a little clearer - focus on teh PF position and depth.

 

I just think the fact that McHale WENT OUT OF HIS WAY to mention Llull on that radio broadcast....just speaks volumes. I was pretty surprised. McHale totally sounds like he has bought into what Llull could bring to the team.

 

Absolutely would be possible.

Dwight (assuming he opts in), Harden, Lowry, and Ariza would account for 59.826 against a salary cap of 89 Million.

I'm sure the Rockets will have more contracts on their books, and cap holds, but its easy to see that as long as those 4 players are the primary contracts being brought into 2016, its very possible for the Rockets to make an addition, or trade for an addition this Summer and still have max cap space to go after Durant.

And again... we still don't know what's going to happen with Dwight's contract. I have a nagging suspicion that he's opting out, and resigning a long term deal to basically finish his career here. Does he take less than his 2016 cap figure in order to secure long term.... quite possibly, but we shall see.

 

is McD worth more than Brewer? i love Brewer as an energy guy, but i expect McD is already better defensively, and has greater upside at this point.

or does letting Brew go lessen the likelihood of keeping Smith?

 

Add me to this group.

Beverley's situation is really interesting to watch. The reality is that he's a very fringe starter in the league. He fits well with a ball dominant guard and will only be desired if that guard is somewhat of a defensive liability (ie Houston).

Comparisons to Avery Bradley are somewhat fair. Bradley is younger and a better finisher, so I don't see Beverley commanding the same contract.

One way I like to look at it........if Bev was on another team, what would I be willing to spend to bring him to Houston? My answer is $3-4 million, which is roughly in the same neighborhood as Thabo Sefolosha, Mike Dunleavy, DJ Augustin, etc. Something like 3 years $12 million seems fair.

 

Man I don't know what the hell he does.

It would be hard to turn down that ~$23m option .... even if you could sign for 5/50 , that 23m is as good as in the bank and he still has the potential to make that 5/50.

In a perfect world (from a fans perspective) Howard opts out and takes a large paycut allowing the team to spend that money elsewhere bringing in a talented player or two .... but this is business and if I were in his shoes , I wouldnt give away a dollar.

 

So basically our options are (not taking into account any possible trades):
Option #1 (Best IMO):
1. Sign Smith using Non-Bird
2. Sign Sergio Llull using TP MLE
3. Sign Brewer using Early Bird (~6-8 million)
4. Sign Terry to vet minimum
*5. Sign McDaniels to QO (only if he accepts it)

Option #2:
1. Sign Smith using the TP MLE
2. Sign Brewer using Early Bird (~6-8 million)
3. Sign Beverley using Larry Bird (~6-8 million)
4. Sign Terry to vet minimum
*5. Sign McDaniels to QO (only if he accepts it)

Option #3:
1. Sign Smith using Non-Bird
2. Sign Brewer using Early Bird (~6-8 million)
3. Sign Terry to vet minimum
4. Sign McDaniels using TP MLE

The tax-payer (TP) MLE is used in every scenario, so Morey maintains his flexibility (i.e. not be hard-capped at the apron).

These are just basic scenarios based on keeping our own free agents.

Option #1 gives us a lineup of:
Llull/Terry/Prigioni
Harden/Brewer/Johnson
Ariza/Papanikolaou
Smith/Jones
Howard/Motiejunas/Capela
Also the 2015 draft picks plus contracts to trade (Papa, Prigs) to take on salary. Pretty solid, build off the chemistry of this past year.