The Next Moreyball Innovation That Should Happen Now

Even though the average return in Dwight's case would be .29 additional points, the variance can be higher. You can potentially get an additional 0 points (>73% of the time) to 4 points (foul + 3 pt).

 

In the long run, you want to minimize variance though... An expected .59 point return on average is better than an expected .29 point return.

 

I was just thinking about this. The asset hording strategy really only works when you're the only team doing it.

 

Good idea, this sounds like something Pop would do faced with this situation.

 

If this was a good idea. Would would already see the affects. We are a low % team on ft so there are a lot of missed attempts already. I don't see us getting the rebound all that Much

 

Anyone know the breakdown of missed free throws of Dwight, Josh, and Joey (first attempt vs second attempt %)?

 

The next "Mauryball innovation" should be putting together a team that can actually get out of the first round. What a novel idea!

 

The next bit of statistical gold will be identifying underrated coaching talent....and of course firing McHale's dumb ass....

 

Teams do this out of desperation only when they are way behind and need some luck to catch up. Think of it like an onside kick in football, or pulling the goalie in hockey for another offensive player. It's a move that works a low percentage of the time, but at the end of a game your options are limited.

If there is less than 10 seconds in the game, and a team is down by 2 or 3 after the first free throw, it's not a bad option, since most options for winning at that point are low, and it may mathematically be the best option at that one point in the game.

 

I am volunteering to teach a one hour webinar on statistics for Clutchfans...

 

Uh no, you should never try to miss a free throw on purpose. Why do you think they try so hard to get to the line? So they can set up for an offensive rebound that they probably won't get? Jesus. This is literally the dumbest idea I've ever read on here in 16 years. Unbelievable.

 

I've never understood why teams didn't start to employ a full court press when they went from 10 to 8 seconds to get it over half court. If you steal a net of 1 or 2 possessions a game it's totally worth it. By net I mean, some of the time they are going to beat your press for an easy bucket. If you can minimize the easy buckets given up by the press and cause a few turnovers it's a great idea.

 

Teams only do this at the end of games when they're out of timeouts and time is almost up (maybe 5 seconds or less left in the game). They wouldn't have time to foul the other team and then advance the ball with a timeout to get another shot off before the buzzer goes off. The chances of getting an offensive rebound aren't very good at all so it's really a desperation, last ditch effort. You can tell who has played the game before and who just watches it...because this is not a viable idea. At all.

 

They numbers only work if you get 100% offensive rebounds.

 

Actually, it depends on how bad the free throw shooter is. For a 85% free throw shooter, the offensive rebound rate needs to be nearly 80%. For a 50% free throw shooter, the offensive rebound rate needs to be nearly 45%, which is double than most NBA teams.

 

When you're in front by less than 3 and there is less than 0.3 seconds on the clock, missing a free throw is a guaranteed win (due to a the minimum time for a time out to occur).

 

Guys, does anyone know where to find the offensive rebound rate off of missed FT's? That is much more applicable to this scenario than a team's overall offensive rebound rate.

 

It doesn't matter, it's definitely lower than what it is overall (closer to the basket, defense in better position to rebound), and even using Rockets' 27% overall, this doesn't make sense.

 

Here:

But, don't bother. This is a bad idea. After the first free throw, you can either:

1. Make the free throw: A 60% shooter makes 0.6 points on that oppportunity.
2. Miss and get an offensive rebound maybe: Even if you had a 30% chance (double the average) because you set yourself up to maximize your chances, that's still 1.07 points per possession times 0.3, which is 0.32 points.

You can do it in particular situations to increase volatility (since the play could net you anything between 0 and 3 points, compared to 0 or 1 for a free throw), but to do it every time is a statistical loser. To make the plan work, you'd have to believe:

1. You can be confident to get the offensive rebound most of the time (maybe something like 80%+).
2. Or, that possessions after an offensive rebound off a free throw yield considerably more PPP than a regular possession (something like 2 PPP, or a near automatic bucket on every such offensive rebound).

That doesn't sound reasonable.

Here's an alternative plan: When we have a bad shooter at the line, everyone else try really hard to get the offensive rebound, while the shooter tries really hard to make the free throw. Oh, that's what we (and everyone else) already do.

 

Fixed that for you.