Trevor Ariza is shooting 33.1% from three point range on 7.0 attempts per game this season.

Who is better focusing on defense, Ariza or some dude not named Ariza? Why is everyone but Ariza gonna be defensive all stars but Ariza will be stuck on his current level of defense? While defensive sieves like Jeremy Lin do play harder defense at the end of the day these guys still can't compete with defensive specialists which is why guys like Ariza still retain their value...playoffs didn't exactly increase Parson's D against Batum last year

Regarding 3Za, his performance at the start of the year and the past few games is telling me his slump has more to do with fatigue than anything else, prior to Brewer being acquired he was playing 35-40 mins a night and it probably took a toll on him. Now with Brewer around to eat some of his PT Ariza has been shooting better.

 

A good defensive player like Ariza is less valuable in the defense focused playoffs?

I have lost my ability to even.

 

Amazing isn't it.

Because everyone tries harder to defend in the playoffs, good defenders are less valuable.

By extension, does that also mean that since every tries harder to score in the playoffs, a good scorer like Harden is less valuable??????

 

It is also his career....

Every single year he stinks in dec/jan as a shooter.
over a long career he is 38% from 3 post all star break.... it just happens!

 

How am I supposed to panic with this kind of info?

 

Games are more valuable in the play offs, that's why I only watch regular season games against the east.

 

He shoots best with someone in his face. Anyone got a stat on that?

 

Be that as it may, but an Ariza pull up trey from the angle with 20 seconds left on the shot clock is not now nor will it ever be considered a good shot. He's averaging a career high SEVEN 3PA a game. The stat sheet and the eye test both say that a third of those shots can't be within the flow of any offense not named rec ball. He has more three point attempts than every player in the league not named Matthews, Curry, or Lillard.

I just have to disagree with you on this one.

Edit: Just went through and read the rest of this thread, and I want to be clear that my only quarrel with Ariza is that I think he shoots too many three's. That's it. Other than that I love his game and think he fits this team like a glove. And I'd take Ariza on a reasonable contract over Parsons at $15mil 8 days a week.

 

Current 3PT%
Ariza .334
Smith .323


After Ariza's hot start and Smith's slump in Detroit, it's pretty crazy their current percentages could be this close. Smith has shot
.356 in Houston after doing .243 with the Pistons. Hopefully Josh continues his accent and Trevor can continue his recent surge.

 

Well the question is what kind of shots do you want Ariza to take then? He's not MJ or Kobe or Stephen Curry, what kind of shots are available to Ariza aside from drives to the hoop and 3s? You want him to take step back jumpers with a hand in his face? He already did that the first time he was here and he was horrible.

Most people who complain about Ariza taking too many 3s have no concept of percentage, as long as he shoots over 35% you want him taking as many 3s as he can. Who cares if he takes more 3s than Curry, if he hits them at a good clip what the F is the problem?

 

Hopefully parsons understand at the end of his contract no one will every pay him that again and he comes back to houston if we don't get durant

 

Man stop making so much sense!

 

No, that's not the question at all. There's no logic at all in that false choice that you presented. He has options with the ball in his other than shooting the three or taking a step back jumper. It's totally reasonable to want Ariza to shoot less three's. No one is saying don't shoot them at all, just not seven times a game. It's not too much to ask him to pick his spots, stick to where his percentages are higher, and look for opportunities to maybe swing the ball one more time if possible.

You don't want him shooting as many threes as he can, because the game isn't played in a vacuum. There are real consequences from untimely missed three's. There are real consequences for possessions that end with a bricked three with >18-19 seconds left on the shot clock. Logic and percentages go hand and hand, one doesn't work without the other.

Shooting more threes and limiting inefficient shots makes all the sense in the world. But balancing that fact with the fundamental, tride and true, cause and effect, well known, if I do this then that will happen, natural occurrences of the game is where analytics can give you a real advantage.

 

Anyone who watches Rockets game and thinks that Trevor Ariza running to take uncontested pull up threes with 20 seconds on the shot clock left is any sort of common thing at all needs to check in to the hospital.

 

He does it at least once per game in transition.

 

Maybe I'm missing something, but is the remaining time on the shot clock your biggest objection?

If Ariza has an open look in the corner with 20 seconds remaining, how is it worse than him having an open look in the corner with 7 remaining?

I can't tell if you want Ariza to attempt fewer threes per game because he's shooting at a lower percentage this season so far, or because he's shooting contested threes. If it's the latter, I have to disagree- I've watched every single game, and he almost never shoots unless open.

If it's the former, then the solution would be to tell Ariza not to shoot at all.

For better or worse, Smith, Ariza, Terry, Dmo, hell- everybody outside of Dwight and Dorsey has the green light to shoot the 3 if open. I have to assume that is because someone on the analytics side has set the bar rather low as to when to tell one of our players not to shoot the 3.

I think Ariza is going to regress to the mean, i.e., his shooting will improve the rest of the season. He won't end up with 40% from 3 by the end of the year, but he won't stay at 33 either.

 

Yes, the remaining time on the shot clock is one of my biggest gripes. And that's because a three pointer by Ariza is not remotely close to the best shot that the team can take on any given possession. Especially at the beginning of the possession. It's an entirely different story when he catches the ball open later with less time on the clock.

It's true that the bulk of his shots are open, but it's also true that he's not a good enough shooter to warrant shooting seven 3's a game. I guess I'm alone on this one, and for the sake of the team I hope I'm wrong.

 

I think you're wrong as far as the big picture goes. If Ariza is wide open, even with 20 seconds on the shot clock, he should take that shot. There is no guarantee that we will get a better shot. In fact, there are quite a few risk factors if he passes it up. To name a few: chance of turnover by passing out of the shot, especially since defenders are likely in passing lanes if the shooter is open; three second violations by rebounders anticipating a shot; Ariza's below average results when looking to score or create off the dribble, if he decides not to pass out.

Regarding the 7 threes a game, which ones would you take out? Even if he takes one bad three a game, that's still 6 good shots for every 7 attempts. You can't really say, "just don't take the bad ones." It's not that simple when you have to make quick decisions in a quick league. To push the point further, it could be the case that Ariza is actually passing up one good shot per game. I've certainly seen him decline to take the occasional open shot. If you want to analyze this aspect of Ariza's game, you really need to look at his proportions of bad shots taken and good shots not taken. Do you think those proportions are significantly worse than league average (or whatever your expectation is)?

 

35% isn't good enough. That would be an offensive rating of 105, and you would get fewer offensive rebounds than average, so fewer possessions.

 

You may indeed be right- but it seems that the Rockets staff and coaches disagree, because there's no way that Ariza is shooting 7 threes per game without their explicit permission. Beverly, Dmo, Smith- everyone, whether they have a history of great shooting like Terry or not, they have been explicitly instructed to shoot that shot when open.

It also seems to me that in the four games since the All Star break, we're looking to get the offense back to what it was last year- run run run push the ball fast break and run some more. I'm afraid we're going to see even more open threes being shot early in the clock.

What's groundbreaking about the Rockets offense is we are following a different definition for what a 'good shot' is than the rest of the league. Almost all three point shots, if open, especially if in the corner, and not made by Dwight or Dorsey, is a 'good shot' as defined by our coaches and analytics guys.

Have they set the bar too low for what is acceptable? Giving J Smith and Dmo and Ariza the green light to shoot away when open? We'll find out in the playoffs. IMO, we've enjoyed way too much success this season to say the system is bad.