I was sent the opening odds for 2003-2004. I'm not sure what sportsbook this is tho'. L A LAKERS 2/1 2/1 SAC KINGS 7/2 7/2 S A SPURS 7/2 7/2 DAL MAVERICKS 8/1 8/1 N J NETS 12/1 12/1 DET PISTONS 18/1 18/1 N O HORNETS 18/1 18/1 IND PACERS 18/1 18/1 PHI 76ERS 18/1 18/1 MIN T'WOLVES 18/1 18/1 ORL MAGIC 20/1 20/1 POR BLAZERS 22/1 22/1 BOS CELTICS 30/1 30/1 MIL BUCKS 30/1 30/1 PHX SUNS 30/1 30/1 TOR RAPTORS 35/1 35/1 HOU ROCKETS 35/1 35/1 N Y KNICKS 50/1 50/1 MIA HEAT 60/1 60/1 UTAH JAZZ 60/1 60/1 SEA SONICS 60/1 60/1 ATL HAWKS 60/1 60/1 WAS WIZARDS 75/1 75/1 GS WARRIORS 75/1 75/1 CLE CAVALIERS 100/1 100/1 L A CLIPPERS 120/1 120/1 CHI BULLS 150/1 150/1 MEM GRIZZLIES 200/1 200/1 DEN NUGGETS 250/1 250/1
What was the odd for the Rockets to land the #1 pick last year? I think I remember a longer odd than 1/35.
Actually, Houston had an 89/1000 chance at the top pick, or 8.9%. 1/35 would equal 2.9%. Of course, those were statistical odds and not betting odds...
Okay, so it was only 3.0689655% more likely that we would land the #1, so a 'Ship next year is not entirely out of the question.
I can answer that question robbie. A book won't care what players are on what teams. They really don't. What they care about is getting the people to bet in predetermined way. If you take the superbowl for example. All they care about is getting 50% of people on one side and 50% of the people on the other. They make the most money when this happens. With the NBA championship odds maybe they want an even distribution of betting between all the teams. I honestly don't know their formula, but whatever it is, they set the odds in such a way that they can't lose. The house always wins. So they don't really care what players are on what team when they set the odds. As long as the people are betting in such a way as the house wants them too. If the people are not betting in that way the odds shift so that they do. This is why Vegas always wins. When Gary payton signs with the Lakers you can rest assured the odds will change so that people continue to bet in the same pattern they were betting before he signed. The key is to keep the money flowing. That's why they make the odds so early.
