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Defensive stats: facts vs fiction and other

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by DrNuegebauer, May 6, 2014.

  1. TTNN

    TTNN Member

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    For defensive rating calculation in Basketball reference, I wrote a detailed analysis last year.

    http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=7983624&postcount=27

    Basically that is an estimate, and it not really look for one player's opponent scoring, but rather the opposite team scoring, but it kind of individualized with the stop this player generated, such as steals, blocks, rebounds, especially offensive rebounds, and personal fouls, yes, personal fouls is consider positive here as that stops the opponent's offense.

    So if you let your man drive by and scored, that would not hurt your defensive rating, same if you close out nicely and forced a miss, you will not be credited to your offensive rating either. Those were all goes to the team defense which contribute to the base line of the team defense, which every player would got 80% of their defensive rate from.

    Both James Harden and TJ are good rebounders, TJ also good at blocks, that pretty much contributed to their good defensive rating in basketball reference calculation. Last season Patrick Beverley had super good offensive rebounds, that really helped his defensive ratings. But he was not as good this season as last season.

    Whereas in NBA.com, the defensive rating is simply counted the opponent team's points while one player is on court, and that is normalized to per 100 possessions. Thus it is more of the reflection of team defense. However, usually there are rotations of line ups, and if the data sample is large enough, it would still in certain degree reflect one person's contribution to the team in defense.
     
  2. langal

    langal Contributing Member

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    I'm all for analytics, but if the analytics conclude that Harden is a better defensive player than Bev, then something is wrong with those analytics.

    Come to think of it. Why was Harden in the game the final .9? Given his low defensive awareness, it would seem more prudent to keep him out.
     
  3. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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    You don't need to pay unless you want to do group sorting, you just go to http://www.mysynergysports.com/ and plug in the name and you get vastly better data than basketball reference, etc

    Of course a little head work is necessary like that Paul George usually guards the opponents best wing, whereas Harden usually guards the worst, but then nothing else is telling you that either.
     
    #23 Aleron, May 6, 2014
    Last edited: May 6, 2014
  4. Jt29

    Jt29 Member

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    Analytics n statistics are not needed where everyone can see with their bare eyes, harden keep losing his men, try that useless wrap around steal, pretend to bite on the pump fakes so he can slack off later. U know what? Once harden loses his men, he literally stop or just jog a little bit conserving energy, waiting for the moment rockets will go on the other side of the court. Is there a stat for slacking???

    The ultimate harden defence youtube is there for a reason. Why there isnt the same video for paul george, andre iguodala, kahwi leonard n the spurs friends, or taj gibson n the bulls friends? Mchale n his buddies are spoiling harden, morey is annointing him as rockets saviour, n HOFs in clutchfans are defending him furiously. Harden can do no wrong in rockets is by design. Let him play with the spurs, pacers or bulls, we will see if he is lucky enough to be in the rotation. Sam Presti knew this, as tough as letting an all star goes, harden is not worth more than $65 million contract because of his defence. This is basketball, similar like volleyball, where offence defence are needed allllll thheeee tiimmmeee. Lack of efforts will suffer bad consequences instantly. Its different with sports like football or soccer.
     
  5. ZNB

    ZNB Contributing Member

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    As I said, the stats are misleading. I watched every possession of every game, Harden is HORRIBLE on defense. If you don't think so then you aren't being honest with yourself.
     
  6. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    With RAPM becoming almost mainstream now (its available on ESPN, isn't it?), I don't see a reason to rely on DRTG for assessing individual defensive performance.
     
  7. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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    Because they aren't on a team who has a rabid player supporter fanbase with an ulterior motive?

    Steve Nash might well have been the worst defender in the league for a decade, but do you see videos of his poor defense coming from Suns fans? of course not

    Curry is absolutely awful, there was one play in that Clippers Warriors series where Chris Paul dribbled past him 3 times in 1 play until he got an open dunk for DJ (and he quickly got put on Barnes), lol, videos? nope
     
    #27 Aleron, May 7, 2014
    Last edited: May 7, 2014
  8. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    I don't think there is a reliable stat that measure individual defensive ability. I remember even Morey admitted this. So you pretty much have to rely on the eye test

    This is probably why Moreyball is not as good at spotting undervalued defensive players as offensive players.
     
  9. daoshi

    daoshi Contributing Member

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    Not to say this metric is better, but it does match my eye-test, Jones, Parsons, and Harden are the three worst defenders on the team.
     
  10. jamphus

    jamphus Member

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    Agreed.

    Harden almost always guards who doesn't score much,
    while Bev/Lin always guards who scores more than who Harden guards.

    Don't really appreciate this kind of arrangement.
    Just like telling Harden: "Hey! Since you don't wanna do defense work, I will get somebody to cover your ass."
    Then Harden took that for granted forever.
     
  11. iconoclastic

    iconoclastic Member

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    You don't need stats to tell you that McHale is a terrible coach and that another coach may have gotten better defense out of Harden and Jones.
     

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