1. Seriously, you got to check what you have posted previously before you replied. You insist "due to a huge overseas market in Taiwan" so that companies are willing to pay much more for the court side ads and even the TV ads for Rockets games. I would like to remind you again, this point is a complete joke. Most if not all of Rockets TV ads are heavily local favored, and if you think the Rockets and CSN will get a huge amount from their courtside ads, well, you are dreaming. Bottom line, these type of income may not even be enough to cover the CSN expenses and hence they filed bankruptcy, I am just amazed you can write such a long winded analysis and still can not figure this simple fact out. 2. Secondly, check out the Rocket's operating income in 2012, that number is : Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, even a play can play some role on this type of income, but saying a team will use it as a considering factor of evaluating this player? Well, its another joke. By using your point of view, the huge increasing of operating income in 2014 - mostly due to the addition of Howard, holy crap, Howard should be a 30 mil player?! 3. Last season, after the Rockets signed Lin and before we got Harden, we have like 4-5 ESPN games for the whole season and ZERO TNT and ABC games, our odds at vegas for the season total is 26.5 win, the bottom 3 teams in the NBA. After Harden joined, we added some TNT and more ESPN games and our odds at vegas went up to 33.5 games. Bottom line, regardless of what happened in NYK, when Lin joined the Rockets, it did not bring any hypes on the team for national TV games, Harden did. To be fair, Lin did bring 3-4 Chinese related companies like the tire company you mentioned and the local Chinese funded bank like East West Bank last year. But this year? He bought ZERO new sponsors. Look, there are indeed some value Lin will bring to the Rockets outside the court, but its far less than what LOF will be dreaming about.
Parsons is MUCH harder to value simply due to the fickle nature of "teen hotties". Teen girls and young women are notoriously fickle when it comes to sustained marketing appeal. If you're old enough you remember the "two Corey's". At one point during the 80's you couldn't avoid their faces on teen magazines and tabloids. Now people barely remember them. On the other hand you have individuals like Johnny Depp that make that transition and are still considered "sex symbols". I wouldn't even try to calculate Parson's market appeal by demographic simply due to not knowing his Q scores or brand recognition. Parsons is far from a household name outside of Houston, so his value will be significantly more tied to his contributions on the court. And the marketing benefits from becoming an "All Star" is really only realized once you have a track record of sustained performance. Now Anta did sign Parsons to a deal and he did photo shoots with Buffalo and more recently Op, but I really have no idea how much of that is predicated on his current play vs his future up side vs his pure marketability as a "model". His recent photo shoots tend to lend credence to the idea that Parsons has appeal as a photo model, but how much that is worth? And does that translate into in-game revenue? Are we going to see Buffalo and Op putting up digital ads in game? His actual twitter follower and Facebook following of 305k tend to indicate some impact. However when compared to other players stars or even other players on the Rockets it's really somewhat small. Player, Twitter, Facebook Parsons, 183k, 305k Harden, 1.93m, 46k Howard, 4.97m, 4.2m Lin, 1.25m, 2.0m Casspi, 47.7k, 114k Beverley, 32k, 5k Iman Shumpert, 256k, 386k Danny Green, 144k, 376k So basically he's got about the same presence as a moderate profile role player. My gut for Parsons is just go with his pure basketball contract value for now, at least until there's more information available or indications that he's building a really hardcore following.
tocan doesn't see that lin's market appeal just isn't that much, if all 30 teams don't want him at $15 million a year. what does that tell you, when they do not want a PG who is worth at least $5 million for 15? His marketing value is equal to or less than $10 million annually, to any given NBA team. moreover, he imagines that the taiwan fraction of that marginal advertising revenue is the primary component. this is exactly what i mean by low general intelligence of lof - he has no self-awareness that he speaks as a self-flattering lof, and cannot put together his own arguments to see the whole.
Just curious, why was there so much attention during pre season from the games in Asia if Lin doesn't bring much to the table?
1. Toyota Center is NOT owned or directly related to CSN in any way. It is owned by Harris COunty. It is a distinct and separate corporation to CSN. The profits from Toyota Center do NOT go to CSN Houston directly or indirectly, and thus will be independently operated. Losses from CSN do NOT affect the income stream from Clutch City Sports and Entertainment in any way and vice versa. Why you keep bringing up CSN's financial woes is baffling. Clutch City Sports and Entertainment ARE directly related to the Rockets. Tad Brown is both the CEO of the Rockets AND Clutch City Sports and Entertainment and is responsible for the profitability of both. 2. Howard IS worth $30M as a player. The ONLY reason that Howard doesn't get paid $30M is because of max salary caps. He is in fact grossly under paid. Do you really think that free of Max Salary caps that Lebron would be making $19M? Lebron is worth $40M+ in a free market. That Howard, Harden and Lebron are restricted in salary has nothing to do with their TRUE worth and more than Parsons is really worth $900k. Miguel Cabrera was recently signed to $292M over 12 years, or $24.3M/year. Despite MLB having a larger following than the NBA, do you *really* believe that in a free market that Lebron is worth LESS than Miguel Cabrera? The Wall Street Journal estimates the Lebron James' *actual* contract value would be $43M/year. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748704103904575337300075163446 In a world where Lebron is paid $43M, do you Really think Dwight wouldn't be worth $30M? 3. We actually don't know how many companies Lin is bringing in this year or whether he brought in any at all. We DO know of 3-4 companies that are signed into contracts. Given the absolute MINIMUM that those add deals are worth is around $75k/season on the worst and lowest profile teams in the NBA, how much do you think that would be worth on a higher profile team like the Rockets? The Rockets are NOT the Bucks or Cavaliers. While they're not the Lakers or the Knicks, their ad spends are going to be significantly more expensive than the league minimum. Even if you assumed the ad buys were only $100K each, just those 4 represent at least $400K in ad buys. And there are FAR more advertising opportunities than just the digital board under the scorers table. 3. You excluded NBA TV games and the increase in League Pass viewers. With just Harden and Lin, the Rockets were the #1 second team option on league pass. Eyeballs are eyeballs, and there were more in play than you think. Even if you disagree with some of my estimations, we are already looking at a minimum of close to half a million dollars in added revenue directly attributed to Lin from FOUR ad buys. Is $1-2M in total really that much of a stretch?
Are you reading impaired? Where did I say it was the primary component? Will it be a significant factor? I believe so. My original post was that his value was $5-6M as a player, $7-8M when you factor in marketing impact. Where did I say he was worth $15M per year in free agency? Oh right, I didn't. You might want to actually READ what I wrote and respond to that versus typing replies to statements that never occurred.
Lin has basketball value to the Rockets in his role as backup to Beverley and Harden. Morey is not going to trade him for free, or give up assets to trade him unless he needs the cap space for something valuable (e.g. Melo). From the other teams perspective, you are swallowing the balloon payment and sending assets to the Rockets? Not a likely scenario. Lin as a free agent has no balloon payment, nor do assets have to be sent out to sign him. In this circumstance, that marginal few million in extra marketing value makes a difference in his overall value. How much of a difference depends pretty heavily on the particular team. For a small market team with more limited resources, that few million lets them pay for extra non-player payroll, or goes to the owners pocket. Either way, it has value, and some of that value will wind up in Lin's pocket.
Now if you finally will come down to earth like Linsanity, do you still believe an added value of 1-2 mils in total max will actually affect the decision of Lin's role in the Rockets or even in any team which will look for a championship or serious about the playoff run? Can't you see the actual gain (as shown above) a team can get from a much improved team vs by adding a possible social hyped player? Aware you aware of Les allowed Morey to use millions of pure cash to buy second round picks not long ago? Like it or not, what Lin's future worth will be mostly (at least 90%) if not all depended on how he will be performed in the remaining of this season and next season.
Since you and me both do not have the actual number on this, I will just want to provide you with another simple fact : - One of the major Chinese cell phone companies - ZTE become an official sponsor of the Rockets before this season started. "The Houston Rockets have teamed up with the fourth largest mobile phone vendor in the world, naming ZTE their official smartphone for the 2013-14 NBA season. Marking ZTE’s first major promotional breakthrough in the United States, this partnership capitalizes on the promising future of both organizations." Are you aware who is the Rockets player being the face of this company in the campaign? No, its not Lin. Its Parsons. Look, Rockets has a long and good relationship with lots of Chinese companies, that has very little to do with Lin. Yao is the reason. Whether Lin will be in the Rockets or not, it will have little affect on their future sponsorships from China. Whether the Rockets will win another NBA championship will be a much important factor.
Lin needs to sign a 2 year contract with the 2nd one being a player option even if it's for peanuts. His value will be at its lowest point if he finishes out his contract in Houston. That's not the time to sign a major long-term contract if you ask me. I would even suggest that he sign like a 10-day contract over and over to make sure the team that he signs for has a coaching staff that believes in him. Without that trust (confidence), he's just not that great.
Actually, I don't know of any players that don't have their coach's confidence and are still great. It's sort of a catch-22. Lin needs a coach that will set up plays and picks for Lin like Popovich does with Parker. Also, Lin as PG >>>>>>>> Lin as SG/combo guard.
I would venture to say that no other player has a fan base that will spend hours posting and looking up meaningless footage trying to prove said player is beyond mediocre. It's hilarious and pathetic at the same time
If you ACTUALLY read what I wrote, I said that Lin's marketing impact is actually DIMINISHED on the Rockets versus other teams due to role, overlapping skill set and the presence of multiple players with higher profiles. And the question of whether you're talking about a Championship or Play off contender is 100% irrelevant. Lin's value on the court varies by the team. Some teams will value his skill set more highly than others based upon need and cap situation as he will be expected to play different roles on different teams in different cap situations. And the free agency value of a contract is NOT set by the Rockets, it's set by the MARKET. The question is what is Lin worth. IE, as a player in the open market. It has NOTHING to do with how the Rockets value Lin unless you're asking how much the Rockets would be willing to commit to re-sign Lin. And to answer that question, NOBODY KNOWS until we know the roster at the end of next year. Players get injured. Players get traded. Those ALL impact relative player value for the Rockets. And your argument of "90% depending on performance over the next season" is utterly meaningless. NONE of us know for sure how Lin will perform next season. He could continue to improve as most players do at his age. He could suffer injury woes. His role could grow or shrink depending on what the coaches need and expect from him. What we DO know is what he has done during his career, his current and previous roles, and from that we can extrapolate an estimate of value assuming he maintains those levels of performance in different roles. You are SO wrapped up in the idea of Lin as a commodity for JUST the Rockets that you're completely ignoring that Lin is a Commodity for MORE teams than the Rockets. And like any commodity, the value will depend on WHO is doing the buying. Step back from the discussion. Examine it from the perspective of OTHER teams in terms of finances, roster need, market position, market demographic, team success and market size. Those in toto will determine Lin's value in free agency. NOT your personal perceived value of Lin with a Rockets uniform.
None of you guys actually read and comprehend torocan's posts huh? But hey, straw men are cool I guess...
I also imagine no other player has an anti-fan base that is just as vehement in throwing negativity around and constantly showing their incompetence on a daily basis. It's hilarious and pathetic at the same time.
I think there is merit to your argument, but you are forgetting and leaving out the one and only point that matters about Jeremy Lin or any other player going into free agency. Supply and demand. NBA players are priced by market value. Morey and any other GM around the league will only pay the minimum that they have to pay Lin or any other player. Maybe he gets more than 4 mil a year, but that doesn't change the fact that I can almost guarantee you that the starting offers will be right around 4 mil a year, and I dont see GM's going above that mark when there is such little demand out there for Lin right now. I supplied the list of comparable players that any GM would use to validate where Jeremy Lin should be in comparable salary and that will be the starting point for negotiations. I do actually negotiate contracts for a living, and I not only have to get through the initial terms and agreements with usually a VP, but also have to get beat down by procurement afterwards... So knowing the market is something I'm very familiar with on price setting. if I was in a GM role that is the way I would determine where the starting point should be when presenting a contract offer to Jeremy. If you put production and statistics into the equation, it can really skew the argument for improper salary pay due to so many variables being able to be skewed to that argument. The truth of this market is that on court production More points you score, higher PER, etc. doesn't and shouldn't determine the price just as gas isn't going to be able to be priced 1 dollar more a gallon just because it has more additives. At the end of the day, people are only going to pay the minimum for gas than they have to. In this case, its all about what the other guy in your class made that determines your price, and Lin has alot more to prove to validate an argument that he deserves the salary of a PG that's in the next class up(Ty Lawson, Rondo, Conley, etc. level). Jeremy's agent can balk at the offer all he wants, and say no he scored enough to validate 6 to 7 mil a year, but it all comes down to leverage in the end, and unless there are multiple offers, and there is extreme demand for Lin's services (see why the Rockets boosted Lin's offer the first time), I do not see him getting any more than a 4 million dollar a year offer IF he was to hit free agency tomorrow just based on what similar players in similar roles have gotten over the past 3 years.
lol at the rage. Go ahead and read all the posts you posted above, especially the "very detailed one you studied regarding Lin's marketing value", and you finally want to get back to his value on the court? Look, you are the one who built up this image of "I will post nothing but facts", but when others present you with the reality of facts and number, you now have no where to go but rage. "I said that Lin's marketing impact is actually DIMINISHED on the Rockets versus other teams due to role, overlapping skill set and the presence of multiple players with higher profiles. " - I am glad that finally you started to realize about your fantasy. If Lin's marketing impacts is actually diminishing, what other reasons you believe he will suddenly regain this popularity when switching to a new team? When he came to the Rockets, he was coming off a Linsanity season from NYK, the big apple. In next season or after, he will be coming from a pretty bad sports market city and most importantly, he will be coming off from 2 very mediocre seasons of performance (I am being polite here), what makes you believe he will suddenly regain his power in the market outside the court? Should you consult Volvo for an advice? ---------------------------- - And your argument of "90% depending on performance over the next season" is utterly meaningless. NONE of us know for sure how Lin will perform next season. - What we DO know is what he has done during his career, his current and previous roles, and from that we can extrapolate an estimate of value assuming he maintains those levels of performance in different roles. ---------------------------- It's just amazing you can post above sentences one after the others Just Amazing. If you do believe what Lin has done during his career, his current and previous roles will decide the estimated value of his future contract, and you are assuming he will maintain those levels of performance, you still will say " that Lin's 2 seasons of performance and plus next season whether he will be in the Rockets or not" will be meaningless to his future value? Wow. You really need to calm down and take a deep breath.
To be honest Lin is worth a bit coming off the bench. He's really unconsistent, some nights he looks like he shouldn't even be in the nba and a couple nights later he's putting up all star stats. He's an odd difficult player to manage to say at the least.
