[ClutchFans] The numbers are clear: Patrick Beverley deserves to start over Jeremy Lin

Beverley has missed 9 games in 2014 due to injuries.

 

So basically back to square one with this thread, oh the joy.

 

Argg, Bev didn't come back until the Portland game on 1/20. I think we played 7 or 8 games in Jan before he came back. But never mind that, you can't have it both way. If you want to use net rating, it DOES NOT matter, given enough data, who the opponent is, who played for the opponent, if it was a blow out, etcs. If you want to consider all of that, then good luck.

So, yes, take of those rose colored glasses.

p.s. I don't know what sutton's data is referring to. The last 31 games or so??

 

I think there are two problems with the statement.

1. Numbers aren't "clear". Statistics, depending upon which ones you pick and choose and how it's presented or edited, can and are often misleading and misinterpreted. Also, cause and effect are not always the same (i.e., every person who has ever eaten grapes has eventually died). Especially in this case, there are plenty of numbers that can be shown to make the case that this is not true that Beverly deserves to start over Jeremy.

2. The word "deserves" implies that Beverly took away Jeremy's starting spot. I think Jeremy's biggest contributions are his scoring and facilitating ability, which is just not as much needed on the starting unit, but is sorely needed on the second unit. It was most evident in the Portland game, when Jeremy scored 26 points and the entire rest of the bench scored (wait for it...wait for it...4 points. 4 POINTS!!). Thus, it's not so much that Patrick (who I like) "deserves" (or "earned") the starting position. It's just that Jeremy is needed more on the second unit (at least in the McHale's mind).

3.

 

The problem with that statement is that 1st unit and 2nd unit don't all swap out at the same time. Usually a couple of players are subbed in at a time. By having JLin start, he would help the 1st AND 2nd unit play better but proper substitution. Harden and Parson usually play 38+ minutes each game so there is no way to avoid overlapping their time together and in playoff games, you need your best players running at full throttle.

I think the move of starting PBev were more of a the hedge for Rox to trade Lin at ASG.

 

I'd like to hear Clutch's opinions with the new set of numbers

 

This is certainly true in the 1st and 3rd quarter, but the 2nd and 4th generally have subs starting the quarter.

 

Hmm... I'm quite perplexed how this data is so different from nbawowy.com's numbers in regards to Rockets defense with Lin's 5-man lineups. All other numbers look about the same. I'm not discrediting either service, nba.com or nbawowy, but this discrepancy is really weird. Especially since I love to use nbawowy as they give some really fascinating breakdowns in regards to shot locations as well as more user friendly interface than nba.com.

 

Not exactly, from my observations of the past 20 games, it almost always goes something like this (Unless someone is injured or in foul trouble.):

1st Quarter: 8-9 minutes Starters, 3-4 minutes Bench players with some starters (Usually Harden, Parsons, and/or Dwight)

2nd Quarter: 7-9 minutes Starters, 3-5 minutes Bench players with some starters.

3rd Quarter: 6-8 minutes Starters, 4-6 minutes Bench players, maybe some starters depending on whether the game is still close.

4th Quarter: 3-5 minutes Bench players and Patrick Beverley, closing with 7-9 minutes Starters with a bench player, usually Lin, but only if he's playing well throughout the whole game.

 

Turnovers and defense are the only numbers that matter, from our starting PG.

DD

 

I think there are certain match-ups where a healthy Jeremy Lin would be the better fit ie. teams that don't have an elite ball-dominant pg for Beverley to defend.

 

I verified Sutton's numbers on stats.nba.com, and they use exactly the same metric that Clutch did for his initial article, except that Sutton's have a larger sample size with more minutes played, and are thus more accurate.

Regardless of who you think should start at PG, this shows that Clutch's approach doesn't provide a useful argument one way or the other.

 

The numbers will be clear once the season is over and playoffs are done with. In hindsight, claiming Beverley's "right" to start when the season isn't halfway through is bound to be a fallacy. Trades happen, lineups change, some players get injured, some regress and others rise up.

 

The numbers are obviously not clear. Using numbers that don't make sense of anything proves nothing.

Pretty sure the coaching staff just wants jeremy to be a true 6th man. Problem is, they're reducing his minutes. That in itself is the crime here.

 

It doesn't matter - Bev is a better starter for this team than Lin - with Harden and Howard both turnover prone, you can't add another turnover prone player in Lin to that team.

That would be catastrophic - so with Harden and Lin both being similar players, you play the better one in Harden and bring Lin off the bench.

If Lin was on another team - and was given the Harden role, he would be starting - he won't ever be a starter on this team as long as he doesn't protect the ball.

And Lin is a high risk, high reward player - if he didn't try to pass so much he would probably be a LOT more effective, he is about 1/2 second behind on most of his passes, he sees stuff, just slightly too late.

DD

 

I don't think you can say that either. Turnover prone that is. IMO if you are not taking into consideration how he plays when healthy and how he plays when not you are missing the biggest issue. Lin started the season healthy and outplayed beverly IMO. Lin is healthy again now and is outplaying Beverly. You can argue it's close one way or the other, healthy Lin vs Healthy Beverly. But the argument that it's not even close is not valid IMO.

Now who should start is a whole other argument. And on this team I give the edge to Beverly when his A game is on. Lin hows to clearly separate himself from Beverly to justify starting him over Beverly on this team. Even when Healthy Lin hasn't separated himself from Beverly. Lin takes touches away from our superstar and I think Harden is too good to start the game off that way. Plus Lin has had many an opportunity to start over Beverly and he dropped the ball. I think that was because he was playing hurt. But that's life.

 

You can use this argument, although Rockets TOs are not necessarily lower with Lin coming off the bench.

 

This is just a troll thread to elicit both camps to debate, nothing more than that. In the end its a matter of the better fit, the title is pure trolling to get more hits.

 

No the numbers are not clear, the only thing clear is that Lin is just a 1 year rental, why would the Rockets start him?

DaDakota is right, Dwight and Harden are very turn over prone, that is why you need a guard who can take care of the ball better - Beverley. At the beginning of the season Mchale said I have 2 starting PGs, but now we know that is just not true. The coaching staff decided they are going to go with Beverley since day 1, but made it sounded like a competition. It did not matter how well Jeremy play at the beginning of the season, because it really wasn't a competition, just a different direction the Rockets want to take.

I suspect Lin is relegated to the backup pgs with reduced involvement in minutes and offense because the Rockets plan to part ways with him soon, because they have enough offensive power in the starting lineup and what they really need is a really good perimeter defender and spot up shooter, that is why you see Lin's shot attempt reduced when the starters are healthy, and his assists went down because Dwight consumes about 20 possessions a game to post up

 

This makes zero sense to me. This is only one ball on the court. It is not like Harden, Dwight, and Lin can get three turnovers in one possession.

If Lin turns it over, then it means Dwight and Harden won't have to make the turnover so their turnover counts will decrease.

If Lin is not on the court, then Harden and Dwight will get the ball and pile up their turnovers.

So, you get turnovers no matter what; what is your point?

The important thing is that: when Lin is on the court, we get higher AST% (McHale's "move the ball" philosophy), faster pace (McHale's "push the ball" philosophy), and high TS% (more quality shots).