[ClutchFans] The numbers are clear: Patrick Beverley deserves to start over Jeremy Lin

With Bev playing, the ball is usually in Harden's hand. You seldom saw Bev dribbling for a long time. While, with Lin playing, the ball is half half between Harden and Lin, maybe Lin dribbles more time than harden. Your data shows the differences might be very well due to the play styles.

Without Harden, Bev's effectiveness and contribution as a PG to a team would be really questionable. If Harden is sick and without Lin, current Houston team would be in really trouble. Since we all know there is a tension with any topic related with Lin and Bev. Is this that necessary to start a topic about who should start? Again?

 

Clearly Lin is becoming irrelevant to this team. Beverly/Brooks can certainly do what Beverly/Lin can do. I have to admit that I am a sophomore Rockets fan. By now you probably can figure out that I am a LOF. Yes, I followed Lin from New York to Houston, a year and half ago. You know, being a LOF isn't easy. A LOF is not happy unless Rockets win the game AND Lin is the game MVP. Unfortunately, that really doesn't happen very often. Most of time, I ended up depressed after watching a Rockets winning game, because either Lin got benched most of time, or he played like shiit. Anyway, I just realize there would be a lot more to enjoy if I am a pure basketball fan. Lin brought me here, but by now I like lots of other players on Rockets roster. From now now, I will no longer be a LOF, I declare. And for starters, that'll make last night's game so much more enjoyable. I hope my experience can help some of the other LOFs. Thanks.

 

I didn't read the guy's other posts. I thought that "Clutch = LOH" was just him being ironic.

Clutch, as far as I know, is a Lin fan too. He did post a Lin dunk on this very forum back in his Knick (Linsanity) days. I was surprised at the time because it had nothing to do with the Rockets.

 

I disagree on some fronts. While true that Bev is definitely a better man-on-man defender, I find Lin a better team defender. He's gotten better on his gambles and help defense, and has improved on his ability to fight over screens (though far from where I'd like him to be). He hits rotations pretty well if a screen is not in his way, better than Bev a lot of the time (I'm talking about positioning). It's just Bev's ability to pressure on the ball is so good, I think you're right that even overall, Bev comes out on top defensively.

Offensively though, Bev is definitely worse than Lin, and the numbers bear that out. Although last season, Bev shot better than Lin from 3 pt range, it was 37.5% to 34%. This season? Bev is shooting 34% and Lin is shooting 35%. So they aren't that different either way, though possibly a small nod toward Bev (though Lin tends to take more 3 pointers per game as well). Hard to say as Lin's whole season stats last yr are so strongly skewed downward due to his terrible, terrible start (lots of reasons for this, anywhere from his injury at the time to new role and team, etc. It just isn't a very good indication of his level of player -- allstar break and on, when the Rockets said Lin had healed up, is prob a better indicator as since then through now, he's played pretty consistently at his average numbers. First couple of months was like 25% from 3 and FG% in the 30's, which even the most egregious LOHs have to admit are not that indicative of what he brings to the table now).

Yet from everywhere else on the floor, it isn't even close. Over last season and this season, Bev is roughly a 42% FG shooter. That's kinda bad. Lin was 44% last year and people complained! And he's 46% this year. Lin draws more fouls too, taking anywhere from ~3.5 to 4.5 FTs a game (over 2 seasons), while Bev averages something closer to 1 FTA per game. You can see it through Lin's higher TS% as well (Lin's 59% to Bev's 54%).

Combined w/ their Assisted%, the real benefit that Lin brings offensively isn't just his ability to drive to the basket and finish better than Bev (while/alternatively drawing contact), it's his ability to read the floor and make plays for himself. Bev is more of a spot up shooter. Lin's toolset on the offensive end is superior to Bev's...by a lot. Enough so to make up for Bev's better defense? Generally I think yes, but not on our team with our lineup. This is because it comes down to what this team needs, and that's why I think Bev is a better starter than Lin.

Lin's production off the bench allows him to play to his strengths, get the bench involved and be the primary ball handler. They don't need that as much with the starting 5. Bev's defense is much more important, and any non-superstar PG playing next to Harden is most likely going to be relegated to being a spot-up shooter anyways. I like Lin's skillset because, like Westbrook on the Thunder, it makes defenses have to prepare for him. It gives us options. But I agree that it probably is not needed in our starting 5.

As for your comment about Bev being superior overall, I have to disagree for the above reasons. If I were starting a team from scratch and I had NO IDEA who my other players were going to be, I would choose Lin over Bev.

 

I don't know a single Rocket fan who doesn't like Lin.

There a group of people here who post thinking everyone hates Lin, it's because the truth is everyone hates them. It has nothing to do with Jeremy.

They are using Jeremy to shield their insecurities.

 

We know bev is a better FIT than Lin as a starter as of now for his D and lack of turnovers sense harden handles ball anyway, playoffs will tell a bigger story if rockets still need a playmaking pg to start that's solid like DRAGIC or is bev D amd fit enough to get us to WCF

 

Get off my back will you? Are you just looking for a fight? I said Bev should start. sheesh!!

As far as them being comparable? Yes they are. If they were all on the free-agent market, Lin would probably fetch more than Bev - with AB coming up third. They are all mid-tierish players who are above the Toney Douglas of the world but definitely not all-star calibur.

 

........... but they are comparable since they are in the same playing field.

Bev defense outweighs whatever Lin can bring to the offensive along with is faults. Bev is the better option for the starting 5 and Lin is better as the 6th man.

Women lie, men lie, numbers dont lie. Simple as that. Accept and keep it moving.

Go Rockets

 

Looking at RAPM - a more reliable version of the on/off stats Clutch is using - the numbers provide even more clarity. Also, the Rockets' recent troubles are partly explained by Beverley's (and Asik's) absence. Beverley is a +1.48 player, compared to Lin who is at -0.89.

With Beverley back, Asik back soon and Lin possibly playing better now that he's resumed his sixth man role, the Rockets have a good chance to surprise the doubters in the second half of the season. Hopefully, the injury bug doesn't continue to plague this team.

 

Good post. I hope more of your kind become team fans rather than player only fans. You will enjoy the game that much more and life will be better

Look, its ok to have your favorite player on a team and want him to do well but at the end of the day you want the TEAM to win.

With LOF's they don't care for the Rockets. They want Lin to play big minutes and put up big numbers. If not, McHale and the Rockets organization are "racists", Bev is "hot trash", Harden is "garbage" comments surface.

 

I like how the whole point of the post was comparing the difference in TEAM scoring differential with our 2 PGs and all anyone who thinks Lin should start has to throw out there are superior box score numbers.

 

"He's gotten better on his gambles and help defense, and has improved on his ability to fight over screens"

No he hasn't. Just look at his synergy defensive stats on the perimeter. He is often caught ball watching. Nothing has changed.

"I like Lin's skillset because, like Westbrook on the Thunder, it makes defenses have to prepare for him."

Oh no you didn't. Lin is no where near the talent Westbrook is. Lin is more of a Jerryd Bayless type player.

 

Oh "Flippin" is against Bev starting? That makes his responses to me more self-evident.

 

Great read, Clutch.


I keep saying Clutchfans, we are trying to win games here.

 

Does Bev deserve to start? Yes, you can certainly make arguments and quote stats to support him starting, but you can easily make arguments and quote stats the other way, too. Nothing is conclusive and it likely will never be.

One can favor either side, but it should not make one a LOF or LOH as it is on this site. Very sad.

 

Did you seriously read my whole thing and only took away those two quotes to misrepresent me? Neat.

1) There's now a direct stat that measures fighting over screens (and the like) on synergy? This is one that has to rely more on the eye test, and I disagree with you. I find him fighting over screens better this yr and gambling better on his help defense. Does that somehow mean his overall defense must be better? No, and I even said, Bev's defense remains superior to Lin's.

2) Wow, please, I hope you never become an attorney or anything close to the sort. I never said Lin was the same talent as Westbrook. I said I like Lin's skillset on the offensive end because teams have to prepare for him, similar to how teams have to 'prepare' for Westbrook. I'm not saying teams prepare the same AMOUNT or treat Lin the same as WB. It's a pretty straightforward comment given the context of my whole post...it means it's nice to have 2 weapons in your toolshed that you can go to at times (who can create on their own).

 

I didn't misrepresent anything. Lin was fighting over screens in preseason against the Pacers and a couple of games after that. Now, it has completely disappeared. As for Westbrook, it's obvious you made a comparison there. I don't need to respond to your puffery. I know more stats and bball than you ever will. Just be short and concise.

 

Good luck to LOF's and Jlin, whatever happens to him in the near future. However, I only care about Rockets W's/L's and injuries. At full strength the Rockets are awesome. Concerned with how easily we were beat by the Clippers and Kings! Wow!

We definitely lack in the coaching department, our offensive sets are juvenile! What about a back screen for D12 for easy dunk or John Stockton pics for Dwight to eliminate his need to fight for low block position.

Let's go Rockets, time to move up the WCF ladder.

 

Great post!

 

By prepare for him, you mean cram him when he doesn't have the ball since he doesn't move well off the ball, and stand off him when he has the ball in his hands because he's an awful shooter off the dribble right?

Lin is very strong at a cpl things, namely the drive and the catch and shoot, but he's really weak at the corresponding skills that force defenders to open up the opportunities to utilise them. Some people see his good/bad games as inconsistency, others see it as defenders playing him wrong/right.