Our problem at this point of the season is that our vets who are signed for the minimum have lost their touch from the 3pt range--Garcia, AB, Casspi. Even Harden is down in his averages. So maybe we need to look for more efficient veterans and be willing to pay them a little more.
The Rockets love to operate at a fast pace, but it's nothing compared to their D-League counterpart. The future of the NBA lies in Texas. Not in Dallas, Houston or San Antonio, home to the state's three NBA teams, who have won a combined 64.4 percent of their games over the past decade, but farther south in Hidalgo, Texas, located a long 3-pointer across the Rio Grande from Mexico. There, in the NBA's D-League, the Rio Grande Valley Vipers are playing the most extreme professional basketball in America. You might have seen the Vipers' shot chart, which went viral on Twitter after being posted by the D-League. [+] EnlargeNBA Charts 2 NBA.com/DLeague/Stats Rio Grande Valley is quite fond of the 3-point shot. Nearly half of Rio Grande Valley's shot attempts have come from beyond the 3-point line, but that's not the only thing that sets the team apart statistically. The Vipers are averaging 107.2 possessions per 48 minutes, which not only blows away the fastest mark in the NBA this season (97.5) but is faster than any NBA team has played in the last 20 years. Since Rio Grande Valley's offense is also hyper-efficient (its rate of 121.0 points per 100 possessions would lead the NBA this season and blow past the 2004-05 Phoenix Suns -- 117.5 -- for the best offensive rating since the NBA-ABA merger), the team is averaging a nearly unthinkable 129.4 points per game. Three players score at least 20 points per game, and all five starters are averaging at least 17.2 points. None of this is happening by accident. Since the Houston Rockets took control of the Vipers' basketball operations under a single-affiliate partnership agreement in 2009, the Rockets' front office under general manager Daryl Morey has utilized the D-League squad as a laboratory of sorts, a testing ground for ideas they can import to the NBA. Under Houston management, the Vipers have always relied heavily on the 3-pointer. They also quickly pushed the pace, and have continued to play faster each season (the D-League's average pace is generally trending upward, but Rio Grande Valley has increased more). While the big club has always tended to play fast and shoot a lot of 3-pointers, it wasn't until last season that the Rockets really mirrored their affiliate's extreme tendencies. It took some time for Houston to get the right personnel in place (this year's team has inevitably slowed down relative to the rest of the league to accommodate Dwight Howard) and get total buy-in from the coaching staff. Vipers Ahead of the Curve Season RGV Pace HOU Pace RGV 3A% HOU 3A% 2009-10 93.6 (6) 92.7 (6) .286 (1) .265 (4) 2010-11 96.2 (1) 93.0 (7) .334 (1) .264 (5) 2011-12 97.3 (1) 90.5 (11) .348 (1) .240 (13) 2012-13 99.7 (1) 94.7 (1) .315 (1) .349 (2) 2013-14 108.2 (1) 95.1 (5) .496 (1) .352 (1) As a result, it's fascinating to consider whether this year's Vipers might be a preview of things to come for the Rockets. After hiring Nevada Smith from Division III Keystone College, Rio Grande Valley has taken the twin philosophies of playing fast and emphasizing high-value shots to their logical extremes. According to the new NBA.com/DLeague/Stats, the Vipers took just 36 2-point shots outside the paint during their first eight games. Some 88.1 percent of their shot attempts came either at the rim or behind the 3-point line. That blows away Houston, which leads the NBA by taking 69.5 percent of its shots from those two locations; no other NBA team is above 60 percent. This leads to an inevitable question: How far can teams increase the number of 3-pointers they shoot? Last year's Knicks set a league record by taking 35.4 percent of their shots beyond the arc. The Rockets attempted them at the third-highest rate ever, and are on track to shoot them slightly more frequently this season. League-wide, NBA teams are taking 3s on more than a quarter of their shot attempts (25.4 percent) for the first time ever. Seeing how much further NBA teams can go may require nothing more than looking at the NCAA, where the shorter 3-point line has always been more inviting. In fact, college teams shot 3-pointers as frequently as NBA teams do now all the way back in 1992-93. Long-distance attempts peaked at 34.4 percent of all shots by 2007-08 before the NCAA moved the line back from 19 feet, 9 inches to 20 feet, 9 inches -- still 3 feet shorter than the NBA line at its longest. Since then, the NCAA 3-point rate has settled in around 33 percent of all shots taken. [+] EnlargeNBA Charts 1 ESPN Stats & Information The superiority of the 3-point shot has long been held by statistical analysts, but the trend toward fast-paced play is a new one. With former Houston assistant GM Sam Hinkie taking over the Philadelphia 76ers this season, the Sixers have supplanted the Rockets as the league's fastest team. While there is a variety of reasons Philadelphia might want to speed things up during a rebuilding season, as Per Diem partner Tom Haberstroh explored in the first installment of "The Big Number," that the Rockets, 76ers and the Vipers are all playing at fast paces seems to indicate that Morey and Hinkie fundamentally believe in it. (The 76ers' D-League team, the Delaware 87ers, also is playing at a fast pace and ranks second in the league in 3-point attempt percentage.) That philosophy has been applied in the NBA before, most notably by Paul Westhead's Denver Nuggets. The difference is that the Rio Grande Valley system has proved more than just a gimmick. The Vipers won their second D-League championship in four years last spring and have started this season 9-0. Thursday's win over the Austin Toros was their 19th consecutive during the regular season (not counting a 6-0 playoff run), tying the D-League record. The Rockets' style won't be nearly so extreme when they face the Golden State Warriors on Friday night (10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN). If Rio Grande Valley continues to be so successful, however, expect Houston to continue pushing the pace and hoisting more 3-pointers. And if that works for the Rockets and Sixers, more NBA teams will follow the Vipers' lead.
I wonder how Morey feels about this being brought to so much attention. it's on the front page of espn.com now.
No not really, but the tired legs part is interesting. You got to remember past this Dork Elvis side of Morey, he was previously a consultant. His top men, like Hinkie, were consultants for some of the top notch firms such as Boston Consulting Group--a rival's of Mitt Romney's Bain & Company. These guys think out of the box and are highly curious within every perspective of the game. They pose questions that dig for a deeper answer. Things like tired legs, etc., are all the factors they account for and beyond that. They scrutinize every little ounce of it. Morey's philosophy offensively is great, I'd like to hear more about his D philosophy. I know he's valued Asik, Chuck Hayes, Shane Battier over the years...but this side of the basketball game we need help on. I don't think it's Morey's fault though. I think it's more McFail's.
Somewhere along the line in Daryl Morey's life he decided that he wanted to erase the mid range shot from the world, kind of how I want to erase Arachnids from the Universe.
Miami and San Antonio aren't "older" teams when you look at the actual age distribution versus the average age. Average age is misleading as 38 + 22 = 30, but so does 30 + 30. The Spurs has older players, but more importantly they have multiple young players to offset those older legs. For example, Tim Duncan is 37, Manu is 36, Parker is 31, Diaw is 31 and Bonner is 33. However, the rest of the roster? Here are their ages... 26, 27, 27, 26, 26, 22, 22, 25, 28, 25 Most of Miami's age is on the bench. Their starters? Lebron James - 28 Dywane Wade - 31 Mario Chalmers - 27 Chris Bosh - 29 Shane Battier - 35 Allen is 38, Cole is 25, Lewis is 34, Anderson is 35. So you have 2 players over 30, the rest under 30. Roll that back 3 years to when they formed, 2 years when they won their first chip. Age wise the Heat is heavily tilted to the bench (minimal minutes) with a lot of old vets. Their starters aren't anywhere near "old" except for Battier. You don't need an entire roster to be young, but you do need enough under 30 players that the opposing team doesn't run all over you in transition and run you into the ground trying to defend the 3. As for 3pt%, the role of 3pt% has increased dramatically over the years. This year 28.3% of Miami's shots are 3 pointers. San Antonio shoots 3 pointers 25.0% of the time. http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/three-point-rate Previous years? Miami - % of 3pt shots attempted 2013/14 - 28.3% 2012/13 - 27.9% 2011/12 - 21.2% 2010/11 - 23.6% 2009/10 - 22.0% 2003/04 - 20.7% Spurs - % of 3pt shots attempted 2013/14 - 25.0% 2012/13 - 26.2% 2011/12 - 26.2% 2010/11 - 25.9% 2009/10 - 22.7% 2003/04 - 18.5% That doesn't mean that you can't do anything but 3's, but 3's are an increasingly critical part of a successful team right now. And the trend is increasing towards higher pace and more 3's due to the improvement in defensive schemes. I expect that to continue for the most part. More buckets at the rim, more 3 pointers. That doesn't mean the mid-range shot dies. Just that teams will tend to shoot them only if they have no choice during an offensive set. The real question is what will the eventual balance be when Analytics becomes a discipline of marginal advantage.
What are you talking about? Both Casspi and Brooks are currently having the highest 3pt% of their respective careers. Brooks will likely regress to the mean a bit, but Garcia's can go up just as easily if he hits a hot streak.
Even with his recent slump in shooting the past few games, Garcia is still averaging shooting the three at a decent 35% clip on the season. Casspi is shooting a great 39% from three on the season and AB is averaging shooting at a monstrous 46% on the season. The veterans are shooting fine. They've just slumped the last few games, but they'll come back. Let them keep shooting.
That's knee jerk reaction and opposite of what your user name suggests. When 3's don't fall, just take it to the hole. Lin is definitely better at that than the said three though. And Casspi is hardly a vet.
you do know that Miami and San Antonio are both near the top in 3 pointers attempted, right? You do win championships in the NBA by constantly jacking up 3s.
NBA teams score an incredible 1.15 PPS when they go to the catch and shoot 3. The league only averages 0.84 PPS when they go to the catch and shoot mid-ranged shot. Unless forced into one, NBA teams should never shoot a mid-ranged shot. They make absolutely no sense whatsoever.
Yeah, I guess Lamarcus Aldridge and Dirk Nowitzki beating us with mid-range jumpers just "makes no sense whatsoever" ... except they won.
And you don't think that this points to the Rockets having a defensive black hole at the power forward position? Sometimes the simplest explanation is the one that makes the most sense. It certainly is easier than arguing with an overwhelming body of evidence.
