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[ClutchFans] Jeremy Lin's Big Test

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by GBRocket, Sep 25, 2013.

  1. Nubmonger

    Nubmonger Member

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    Hey pwnyxpress, thanks for the backup man, but it's OK - I'm a big boy, I can take it, haha.

    In my experience, the whole point of providing an example is to illuminate a larger point coherently. It's like saying, "Elephants are big!" and then showing a photo of an adult elephant next to a kid. You aren't going to show a pygmy elephant as your example if your argument is that elephants are big. It doesn't mean that you think all elephants are big or that elephants are bigger than everything else in the universe, but apparently some people like to take things out of context and harp on specific examples instead of the overall point being made. I'm pretty sure if you said, "Elephants are big!" on the internet, some dumbass somewhere is going to Photoshop some image of an elephant next to an aircraft carrier and be like, "LAWLWUT ELEPHANTS R BIG?!?!"

    Eh, what are you gonna do. Yay internet. Most likely the real issue is that he's a Kobe/superstar fan and he thinks that I'm "hating" on Kobe and he needs to defend his boi to a faceless name on the internet. Even though my point is that even if this happens just once, it provides important context as to how accurate the numbers we are seeing can be, rather than saying the numbers are completely meaningless (or that Kobe sucks whale balls and is totally overrated).
     
  2. rockets_big

    rockets_big Member

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    I expect to see a more consistent and polished version of the jeremy lin we saw last season after the all star break.

    Lin was shooting about 78% from behind the arc in his practice sessions over the summer: if that translates to an in game percentage at half that rate or close to it, Lin can be an effective contributor complementing howard.

    Lin trained with Gary Payton some time ago, and GP emphasized that since defenses will play Lin for the drive, he needs to make them pay by being able to hit that open shot.

    Bev will be breathing down his neck for minutes all season long, so the intra=team competition for minutes may be just as compelling as the rockets' rivalries with WC foes.
     
  3. IzakDavid13

    IzakDavid13 Contributing Member

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    Lin should be an All-star this season.
     
  4. Jenopogi

    Jenopogi Contributing Member

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    That would be awesome having 3 rockets out in all-star. I think it's possible. Howard will help lin look good. Read an interview with howard saying he dunked a lin bad pass. Imagine the assist jump for lin considering his last season numbers has asik as one of his big guy partner. I loved gsmith for his hands. I can imagine howard play like gsmith on steroids. Cant wait!
     
  5. bloop

    bloop Member

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    This is basically the takeaway from the article. All the other **** is bad writing and misusage of stats. For example Fudge compares Beverley with Lin by pointing at the Rockets' team defensive rating from last year. It makes no sense to extrapolate the defensive efficacy of a team for next year based on a past year, especially when you just swapped your biggest defensive piece out for Dwight Howard. There's no basis to insinuate some projected team defensive benefit by playing Beverley using last year's data when you're talking about how the team defense is going to fit together. I'm not saying that Beverley would be better or worse for the team because you have to see how the pieces come together with Howard but the starting inference isn't based on any solid correlation.

    The reason Fudge does that because Lin's individual defensive rating is pretty good. Fudge goes to past team numbers to obfuscate the fact that Lin and Beverley actually have pretty similar numbers: almost exactly same Defensive Rating, similar steals, with Lin better at blocks, grabbing defensive boards.

    The other main stat he leans on is PER. But that's weighted in terms of scoring production/efficiency from the PG position. That's not Lin's role, his utility to this team isn't going to be by creating his own production with the ball in his hands but through distribution. In fact this team is probably not going to win **** if it's leaning on Lin to put up 20ppg. What is going to measure Lin's utility is hitting the open shot and dumping it into Howard. You're not talking about the impact of Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook or Rose's PER numbers because this team has James Harden. The stats Fudge uses really aren't that important in terms of whether Lin flourishes in his role. It's going to be very simple: does he hit his shots, does he play under control and does he dish?

    Now if Houston didn't have Howard and Lin was being asked to retain his role from last year then yes, looking at the numbers from his year adjusting to the role of franchise player, Lin's PER and wins over replacement would in fact indicate that no, Linsanity isn't going to carry Houston the way Rose is expected to carry Chicago or Westbrook contribute seminally to the Thunder. That's not the case for Houston.

    It's pretty clear that anyone with a brain would have Lin very firmly as the starter going into the year. In fact outside of this board, it would take a lengthy conversation to state why anyone else on the roster would even be considered as the starter. But it's a solid bet that Beverley will get his chances too, if only because McHale doesn't think much of Lin. Contrary to the article I think that even a below average PG could be fine for this team with the caveat that he can hit his shots, not give away possessions with TOs and be a good distributor.
     
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  6. Apache

    Apache Member

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    Every players has their strength and weakness. So bias in the NBA and some peoples. Even they say he don't deserve that contract, oh yeah a lot of the players in the NBA don't deserve their either but only Jeremy Lin get mention most.
     
  7. rockets_big

    rockets_big Member

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    Lin does get singled out for criticism a lot. He's an unconventional presence in the league. The Williams sisters were and are the targets of racist taunting as well (then again, serena's death threats to umpires and crip walkin at the olympics may have had something to do with it as well).

    Lin made the mistake of listening to his critics, which is ridiculous, since most of them can't chew bubble gum and walk at the same time, much less play basketball at an nba level.

    Lin is a year older and wiser. As I've said before, let's look forward to a good season for lin and the rockets. Let bygones be bygones.
     
  8. Panda23

    Panda23 Member

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    So basically;

    Lin is a good young player who's whirlwind NBA breakout party masked his deficiencies that are depended on more with the current Houston setup. Ball-Handling, off ball play and shooting seem to be the main concerns. He improved alot with his shot coming off a serious knee injury that hampered his offseason, he was NOTICEABLY struggling.

    No big deal, if his jumper goes all nick the brick anderson and he swaps hands with Omer we have Beverley and this dude

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. raskol

    raskol Contributing Member

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    A different way of looking at it would be examining the Spurs. Every year, they are not expected to be in contention but time and time again they are, so they are lauded as true competitors. IF they were supposed to win it all every year, having failed to do so time and time again, there would be a lot of criticism.

    Lin is in some ways the same. He is expected for one reason or another to perform at all star levels, whether due to his contract (though he's playing around the level of his salary), Linsanity, or because of the LOFs who claim he should be an all star (though, frankly, not many if any at all claim he is an all-star now). Since he hasn't played at an all star level, he gets clowned even though his numbers aren't that bad at all. Had he been thought of as a rookie PG for all intents and purposes, his 38 pts against Dallas and Spurs among other great performances would have most people touting him as an up and coming solid starting pg. It's expectations.

    Now, of course, there are a lot of haters who just want to be proven right that he is a scrub, or kids who just like to say what's popular or go against what they consider is popular, but in general, I believe it's just different expectations.

    13 & 8 in his first year starting with a ball dominant sg.. I'll take that. Do I want more? Yes, I do. But that's another story for another year. Maybe this year, most probably next year.
     
  10. Dunvegan

    Dunvegan Member

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    Beverley at #174

    Patrick Beverley just showed up at #174 on the ESPN NBA rankings
     
  11. langal

    langal Contributing Member

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    I thought 13 and 6 was quite good actually. Even if he shot at higher percentages and Asik could handle it better, 15 and 7 is probably a peak. His stats this year might even be lower.

    We can't expect to drop his usage rate and reasonably expect higher point and assist numbers. I just want a good game manager who can flash some Linsanity at times when it is called for. So basically, shoot like he did in the second half of the season, cut down on turnovers - and I would be pleased. 8.3 million wouldn't be egregious at all in my opinion. There is a huge difference paying 8 million for mid-levelish guy and getting saddled for 4-5 years with a MAX guy who becomes an albatross.
     
  12. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    There are 150 starters in the NBA. #174 is quite good for a backup.
     
  13. raskol

    raskol Contributing Member

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    That is quite amazing. I'm really glad that everyone around the league is so high on Beverley. Typically, they do not rate anyone so high until they've played a bit more, but we'll take it! lol.
     
  14. BBAAB

    BBAAB Rookie

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    Beverley IS one of the better back-ups in the NBA!
     
  15. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    Really? I just googled "overpaid nba players" and clicked the first 2 links. No Jeremy Lin and plenty of non-descript mediocre players for mediocre teams.

    If you mean on this board, well, why the hell would Rockets fans care if Hedo Turgolu makes $12mil/yr?
     
  16. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    The sad thing is, I bet he was only ranked this high because of his high profile playoff performance. If the Rockets had beena 9th seed again, I bet he's ranked in the 200s easily.
     
  17. Htownballer38

    Htownballer38 Member

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    I hope the young fella have a great season.
     
  18. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    Rookie Burke is at 161 without playing a game.
     
  19. BBAAB

    BBAAB Rookie

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    And Aaron Brooks has the third highest 2K14 ratings on the Rockets without being guaranteed a spot on the final 15 man roster
     
  20. Old Man Rock

    Old Man Rock Contributing Member

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    Exactly, no reason to think he will struggle considering all he did was improve every month and as the writer even stated he shot near 40% behind the arc in the last 34 games. Many on here love the flashy play of beverly and I am a fan too but Lin is the true pg that is getting better every month every game and worked his butt off as hard as anyone this off season. There is no reason to think he will struggle and there is a lot of reason to think he will only get better. And that's a good thing for the Rockets and all Rockets fans. ;)
     

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