Not about Lin here, but ranking Ricky Rubio after 30 for PG defense does not make any sense. Some good bits and some bad parts in the article. Wouldn't take it too seriously. I think Lin is underrated and above average on D, but not spectacular and not top 10 yet. Hopefully little things like addressing his stance and improve his reaction time just a tad faster.
Insert Dwight, and check the difference between his stats and Asik's last year. And project minutes for everybody to go down a tad because we've got better depth and our projected points differential is likely to be higher this year meaning more blowouts and starters get more test. Plus pace might slow a little with Dwight.
I basically agree with you about Lin, Rubio and the article. But having some good bits and some bad bits is unusually good for Bleacher Report. I thought his description of Lin's defense sounded a lot worse than No. 10 and was more accurate than the ranking.
So, I tweeted Bradford Doolittle (who wrote the piece for ESPN) and Kevin Pelton (another ESPN writer who has used WARP/SCHOENE projections since back when he wrote for Basketball Prospectus), with a cc to Daryl Morey raising the point that Asik's very low 0.7 WARP is strange. Morey actually PM'ed me back saying that "his projections are way off." I think this is interesting since Morey apparently disagrees strongly with multiple player projections in the piece. Pelton also replied that the WARP measurement does not reflect what Asik does well. I think this is because WARP, as Pelton himself admits here http://www.sonicscentral.com/warp.html, is based on box score stats and does not do a good job reflecting defense-- which is where most of Asik's value comes from.
predicting a decrease in stats does not make him a hater - contending requires sacrifice for the good of the team, which usually means stats like ppg, apg, rpg, spg and bpg, and mpg go down, while percentages and efficiency go up. Also, there are MANY unknowns on the roster - the wing depth on this team is a total unknown and the PF play is also TBD.
This guys opinion is the same as the ones shared by his haters: meaning that he has not seen Lin play much and is just going by his reputation. He doesn't take many risks ringer his steals, what is he talking about? It's just a way to disavow his flashy steals stat. I hate when "analysts" talk like they know what they're talking about without seeing more than a couple of games. Doesn't Espn have a dedicated Rockets correspondent? They should, cuz we're gonna make big news in the coming years.
So..... everyone on Clutchfans, or other NBA writers and analysts on ESPN or NBAtv, who have been saying the EXACT same things this ESPN writer says about Lin such as: "he has below average 1 on 1 defense", or "Beverley should start" are either: 1. lying because they hate him ("haters!"), or 2. are ignorant because they don't watch as much basketball or Rockets games as you. Serious question here... Is this what you really think?
No one asked Hakeem about Lin's defense or about Beverley starting. Even if they did, he wouldn't say anything bad about any Rockets player. -jocar
Close. I mean, someone has to be wrong, right? Matter of degrees on how wrong, but too many people are purely reactionary. It almost seems like the "cool in thing" now is to hate on Lin. I usually give almost as little credit to ESPN analysts talking about the Rockets as I do most Bleacher Reports (okay not that bad) mostly because I've noticed throughout the years that...damn, ESPN really does not know jack about the Rockets. Maybe it is because in the last half decade or more we haven't made much noise, but ESPN caters to the larger markets. Some of the things their writers have said throughout the years ARE just extremely ignorant (as it pertains to our home team). Before I digress even more, on this Bev vs. Lin thing, I fall on the Lin being the starter side. We're often looking at tone here when we see what the author says. Let me give you some examples. On Lin, the ESPN author does not mention Lin's massive improvement in shooting in the latter half of the season, something that is a bit relevant given how it would certainly affect 13-14 projections. Not mentioning that is fine I suppose, but look at his bias here -- he downplays Lin's nice steals number by highlighting that the steals are there, but he gambles too often. Yet with Bev, the author says he is an efficient scorer. Fails to mention he shoots under 42% from the field (contrast that with author omitting Lin's FG% and 3 pt shooting increases in the later half of the season). Instead highlights Bev's great 37.5% 3 pt shooting. Then he approaches Bev's turnover rate in the opposite way of how he approached Lin's nice steals stats -- he downplays the FLAW for Bev, saying how Bev needs to improve on TOs but hey, it's a team malady (last time I checked, over helping on defense is a team malady for the Rockets too). Bev's playmaking abilities are no where near Lin's caliber, and he mentions how well Bev moves off the ball. Lin moves off the ball at LEAST just as well (if not better). Look at those crisp rotations! You get where I'm going with the bias that seems obvious to me. Now I don't think the overall conclusions are that far off the mark. Bev IS a better defender than Lin, ESPECIALLY one-on-one, but Lin isn't that bad. Lin's like average overall on defense, probably better on team def. than Bev, but not as good one-on-one. Bev is above average on def. but he isn't THAT amazing. He gets a boost from the "Tony Douglas and Jordan Hill Effect" where effort gets confused with skill or even production. Now that is unfair of me to actually say because Bev is, again, actually very good on defense, but sometimes I think it is overplayed a bit too much. He draws a lot of fouls and makes rookie mistakes, which will not work as a starter...can he change that like Asik did? Maybe, but that is easier said than done. So while Bev is better than Lin on defense, I don't think Lin is enough of a defensive liability as so many CF posters seem to suggest (without many stats to back it up -- only the eye test by itself)...and his playmaking abilities give Houston a better two-pronged attack on offense (similar to what WB gives KD for OKC, though he's on another level), and his P&R skills will fit even nicer with Howard (vs. Asik). I sorta wish small ball were more viable in the West though as I personal favorite would be a lineup of Bev/Lin/Harden/Parsons/Howard. Bev does generally fit the PG spot better than Lin does, assuming Harden is at the 2.
I think most people would laugh at the idea of Beverley starting over Lin, Beverley plays more intense defense, but that's the only thing he does well. Lin is a better passer and shooter and Lin's D isn't THAT far behind Beverley's to where that one advantage would make up for Beverley's shortcomings when it comes to the rest of his skills.
Um, we have a defensive minded coach; Harden is a defensive liability, so having the other guard be a better defender helps; Beverley's offensive skillset slots in well next to Harden. The argument is entirely valid, on this team. Personally, I'd prefer Lin. Not much point arguing about it, though, as we will see what actually happens shortly.
If Beverley wasn't a black hole on offense, then I could see it, but he's not a good shooter, not a good passer, and he can't create offense. If he brought anything to the table beyond defense and offensive rebounding prowess then I could see it. Beverley's defense just isn't that much better than Lin's to make up for all of the other things he can't do.
I wouldn't go so far as to say it is a laughable idea. While I prefer Lin over Bev for a number of reasons, some you listed (better passer, better court awareness, better team def and rotations, if latter half an accurate indicator, better shooter [even from 3 pt land], better playmaking and and offense initiator, better P&R player, etc.), the one-on-one intense def. Bev brings works really well with the current Harden and really, really annoys other PGs haha. Blocks in the nba don't directly do THAT much, but the intimidation factor ends up making a lot of players second guess themselves or hesitate or alter their shots...Bev's def is sort of like that. Again, while I prefer Lin over Bev as starter, if Lin's confidence would NOT take a huge hit from being moved to 6th man, I think he'd abuse most reserves. Given total offensive freedom and less pressure (and facing up against worse PGs)...that'd be pretty neat to see too.
I can see that point, but I personally think that Beverley is even more important coming off the bench because when the starters aren't in there, the D goes in the toilet. Bringing a guy like Bev off the bench to be an injection of energy and D is IMO what you want.
