[ClutchFans] Notebook Dump: Reflections on Dwight Howard, Morey, Asik and Lin

IF the Rockets didn't offer an extra 2 million. The Knicks could of matched!

End of discussion!

 

There you go! They overpaid essentially because they had to. Jeremy was a RFA and what we had to pay didn't necessarily reflect his worth at the time because we had to be sure that NY couldn't match...Overpaying is a normal occurrence in the NBA in terms of trying to pry talent away from a team w/ the rights to match

 

Fair enough. Lin's talent worth 6 million, and he would likely bring in extra money to compensate what he is overpaid. So it is still a fair deal.

Then why other teams don't want Lin because his contract is too expensive?

Is it not possible that Rockets actually needs him, is it not possible some teams might want Lin's service but not have what the Rockets needs? Don't you think it is fair not just state Lin is overpaid?

 

What the teams don't want is to pay him $15 million during the 14-15 season due to the poison pill. His cap hit is $8.67 million though but either the rockets or another team will have to pay $15 million after this season so that part is unattractive to potential suitors

 

Anyways it was a great article, Clutch. Always enjoy reading em so thank you!

 

Wincan does have a point.

If Morey decided to pay Lin that amount, and no other team was offering more, (and from what I recall, the Rockets were the only ones that gave Lin an offer sheet), then the Rockets made their bed and now have to lie in it.

Morey was probably trying to spring a trap on the Knicks.... by putting up such a contract, he was hoping to "cripple" the Knicks' pay structure with a contract of that magnitude. What he did not expect was that trap backfired on him and the Rockets instead with the Knicks not matching.

This kind of strategy happens often in the corporate world. If we get wind that a rival company is trying to acquire a mutual target, and we know that said rival has a better chance of acquiring the target than us, we will bid in such a way that we force the price of the target up and our rival will be saddled with a huge financial burden from undertaking the acquisition. Which will give said rival less resources to compete with us in other undertakings down the line. But there are times when this strategy can backfire. Like how it is probably backfiring on the Rockets now.

Ultimately, the Rockets were the ones who set Lin's final market value. Folks can moan and b**** about whether he is being "overpayed" or not, but if you did not think he was worth 8 million at all (or worth only 6 million in the first place), then why pay him such an amount? Saying that the Rockets were trying to "pry" him away from the Knicks is not an excuse.

 

Fans are acting like Parsons is the third star and Lin's not worth his contract.

By this logic Parsons' fair contract right now should be 5-6 mil a year, because he's at the same age and contributes at same level(or slightly worse) than Lin last season according to Morey's interviews.

 

Don't be trolling with that rubbish.

 

The thing is that most weren't sure what Lin's value was after his stint with the Knicks. The Knicks didn't know either, that's why they told him to go out and see what he could get. Clutch is coming to the conclusion that since Rockets originally offered him 6 to 6.5 million that that's what he worth. And that since Lin is a Harvard guy that's what he knew what he is worth. I just find that a weird analysis. I would concluded that Lin just wanted to go back to the Knicks so he signed the first/only reasonable contract, not that it's what he believes he's worth. Clutch is using this weird analysis to come to the conclusion that Lin is paid above his worth.

 

Don't like it, then don't read it.

 

Like I mentioned above, not every team will be able to make money back on his expensive contract.

Plus, like Dorian mentions, the teams who get him now would be paying more for the later years of his contract which are more expensive. Especially with the new CBA luxury tax kicking in next year.

To take it to an extreme example, let's say I gave you a 3-year contract that paid you $1, $1, $15 million. But that contract only counts the average ($5m a year) of those numbers against my salary cap. It would not have counted the average for your old team (Lin's case it was Knicks). It would have counted exactly $1 for this past year, $1 for the upcoming year, and $15m for the last year. In that last year the Knicks would have to pay $45m because the luxury tax kicked in. That was poison pill piece that allowed us to win Lin.

Whoever I tried to trade you too would get you for the same salary cap #s that cost me (Rockets). But I paid you $1 only for first year. They would get you $1 for their first year. But suddenly their last year they would have to pay you $15m. You had better be real good for them to want to take that last year hit.

 

I don't think you guys understand how negotiating contracts actually works. You don't offer Lin the max of what you think he is worth with your 1st offer. They offered 6 to gauge where they were at with Lin & the Knicks. Lin says "I agree" but Knicks are likely to offer me that too. Morey says well we are willing to go as high as 8 which is what we value you at. That's how negotiating contracts works. Morey doesn't offer 8million if they don't think it's a good deal for them. This is Daryl Morey people!

 

This a forum where reading is required to understand what is being said & therefore understand if it is worth liking or not! How do I avoid reading what I don't like if I don't know what is going to be said?

 

Mark to Market.

Lin is worth what his market value is.

As Morey said in his recent interview, the Rockets received calls from teams interested in trading for Lin.

This means other teams were not only quite happy to acquire Lin at his cap hit and balloon payment in the final year, but also give up assets (in a trade) on top of that to get him.

So if Lin was a free agent now, like when we got him. His market value would be his cap hit and salary payment + whatever assets teams are willing to trade for him. In other words, he is far more valuable now than his contract.

Only when teams are unwilling to trade for a player and you have to give up some more assets to trade them (like throw in some picks or the rights to Aldemir) are they said to be worth less than their contract.

 

I don't think we're arguing that. We're arguing with Clutch's conclusion that Lin's worth is only 6-6.5 since that was the original offer and Lin agreed to it. If the Rockets then changed it to 8 million then they thought his worth is at that price since they offered it to him.

As thebornloser said:
Ultimately, the Rockets were the ones who set Lin's final market value.

 

Double edged sword.

If that was the cost the Rockets were willing to bear to get Lin (a 5 million, 5 million, 15 million contract which would be 8 million X 3 for anyone who trades for Lin subsequently), well, they are now saddled with that cost. And he is pretty difficult to trade because of that last year.

I remember when I was reading about Lin's revised offer sheet from the Rockets that turned the New York Knicks owner off and created a firestorm on the media.... and I was telling myself: Hang on a moment... is this really how much the Rockets value Lin for? Is this really how they want to structure the contract? Yeah sure, he is a nice prospect. Yeah sure, he cements your link to the China market. But man, you are going to need him to perform like a top 6- top 8 point guard or that contract structure is going to backfire on you if you want to / have to move him. This can just as easily have a negative impact on the team as it can have on the Knicks. There had to be something more to this.

Morey himself said he was less then 50% sure he could get Lin from the Knicks even with the revised offer. Well.... if that's how much the Rockets really value Lin.... well, he's here now.... *shrug* Hopefully, he is making Les a lot of money from the shirt sales and endorsements.... (not to mention all the other business connections that he can get in China by virtue of being the owner of the team that has Jeremy Lin.... *chuckle*)

 

Well, if you think I am trying to "troll" by writing "rubbish", then I suggest you put me on your ignore list. I don't want to have to reply to your nonsense against me anyway.

 

People also need to understand that even if Lin is slightly overpaid, he nonetheless helped the rockets to the playoffs (3rd in win shares according to Morey) and without us making the playoffs I don't think we get Dwight bc we don't seem nearly as good. So the Lin bet has already paid off, even setting aside any off the court matters. Whether he gets moved in the future is for another time - I hope he will take the next step next to Dwight and can stay, but if he is moved I'm sure Morey will get good value.

 

The myth that Lin brings extra revenues to the Rockets from merchandising or international broadcast rights needles been discussed before on here and also by Morey. Those revenues are league revenues that are distributed evenly to all teams. Lin does not make extra money for the Rockets or any other team he gets traded to.

 

He does bring it with in stadium advertising and in stadium jersey sales. Those are not shared. How much is not known, but I believe the tire company in stadium ad was around 3 million? Can't remember.