[Podcast] Morey on 610 today: talking Lin, free agency & expectations for next year

Mike Conley is a championship team-level PG. You should be happy if that's a realistic ceiling for Lin.

 

13/6 isn't bad for a PG who constantly got benched in the 4th and deferred the ball to Harden most of the time. Most PGs would only manage 9/4 or 9/3 with that kind of system...(PGs in Lakers)

 

All this talk now of Dwight and Smith could be pure speculation but in the interview, morey said he is prepared to go after stars through free agency signings, trades, OR BOTH.

I may be reading to much into it, but the OR BOTH comment could mean he has already considered contingencies for the Dwight & Smith acquisitions cause BOTH trade and FA are the only way to get these two.

 

I'd be very happy if Lin can reach Conley's level in next 2 years.

 

Stats show Harden, NOT Lin more often than not has turnovers at crucial times/4th quarter in 1-2 possession situations. Just look at game 3 vs OKC as example, only had 2 TOs but both came in the crucial final 1:49 leading to 4 points for the opponent.

As far as decision making he's at least better than Harden, who released his inner JR Smith after allstar break and into the playoffs. Pounding the shotclock down then passing off with 3 seconds left over and over. Barreling into the lane looking for fouls and turning it over. Taking bad contested shots. Throwing passes at the ankles of the bigs.

 

People have a preconceived notion of Jlin, that he is turnover prone. So even if he did it only once or twice in a particular game, it gets magnified 100x.

Harden or other Rockets players can commit turnover after turnover but they don't get criticism as much as Lin and they get a pass.

Also, ball handling, remember Harden had one or two, sometimes three stolen from him every game but no problem here ( as if that did not happen) but if Jlin had one stolen from him, there would be pages and pages of harsh criticism.

Somehow, only Jlin's mistakes get stuck in people's mind.

 

Repped, repped, repped.

People who complain that Lin makes dumb TO's in crucial times costing Rox the game is ridiculous.... re-watch the 82 games this year and site specific examples. Every time I ask someone to back up their specific anti-Lin statements such as this with actual specific game/situation, no one does. So I will do it for you haters. The one instance that sticks out in my mind was the first Portland game at home way back in November, when he tried an alley-oop to CP that failed, a risky play, and the Blazers eventually tied up that game to force OT.

 

LOL I'm calling you out for being a LOH. Preseason? Who the hell cares about preseason unless you're looking for reasons to disparage a player? Jesus Christ get a life.

 

It is hard for me to take anyone seriously who slams Lin. Not because I think Lin is amazing, but because 95% of all arguments against JLin are based on unreasonable Linsanity expectations or just "gut feelings" not supported by stats.

Stats have shown that he is pretty much worth what he is being paid, and that he has progressed a lot this season. Obviously we can't expect Linsanity -- did some people ACTUALLY think he'd put up the first 8 games or so of Linsanity numbers? Note that for the whole stretch his numbers were similar to this season's. And besides, first 8 games of Linsanity-type numbers cost a HECK of a lot more than ~$8M a yr lol.

Next yr, Lin can EASILY be 15-6-3 guy, just based on his play after the allstars. That's assuming almost no offseason improvement. I'm not a huge Lin fan; I just have realistic expectations and try not to base all the arguments on "feelings" alone.

 

I guess that depends in the players around him.

 

You're shocked that people would criticize a player with a negativePER in the playoffs?

 

Why are people still judging Lin based off his playoffs performance? He had an awful Game 1, a decent half of game 2, then got injured. And it's not like he was being guarded by some slouch for both healthy games either, Westbrook is good man-on-man defender. I'm not trying to make excuses, but judging him for 6 quarters of healthy basketball, where he played decent/good for 2 of them, doesn't really seem fair.

 

If you were criticizing his playoff performance only, then I would agree. Lin sucked it up HARD in the playoffs. Yes, he was injured for most of the games, but even just the first one was pretty bad. Only GSmith did worse than him in that series.

But I wasn't directing my comment at only those who were slamming Lin's playoff performance. You know full well it is people who have been lamenting his whole season without basing it on facts. Lin's TOs go down for the season and they'll cry that he's more TO-prone than ever...and I'm just sitting here going, lulwut?

 

Someone gave me rep and said where at my stats to back up my earlier comment. No idea yet (too new to this forum) to figure out who is repping me haha, so can't respond privately. I will do it here:

Morey's stated before (apologize for the no link, but I know it is on clutchfans) that Lin is what, 3rd on our team for win shares? Based on his stats.

But even without getting into advanced stats that I am sure Morey uses, or even hoopdata numbers for comparison to other PGs who make $8M, let us look at Lin since his allstar break. Coaching staff and Lin and Morey have all said Lin was still injured in the beginning of the season (much like Howard), and he obviously was not gelling with our team (again, much like HowarD) and his sudden new role (from what he expected and practiced for in the offseason). So you will see amazing progression throughout the year.

His season stats are: 13.4 ppg, 6.1 assists, 3.0 rebounds @ 44% FG, 78.5% FT, 34% 3 pt %. Those are aight for $8M. Kinda not worth the contract tbh, but this is due to his abysmal first few months. I mean, his Dec numbers were 10.2 pts, 6.4 assists @ 37% FG, 26% 3pt %!!! That is TERRIBLE. Like, why are you in nba terrible If Lin played like that all season, I would be part of the LOH club or something.

But fortunately for us, his Feb numbers were: 14.5 pts, 6.6 assists...44% FG, 42%! 3pt%. March numbers were: 13.8 pts, 5 assists...48% FG, 40%! 3pt%. In April, he was 17.3 pts, 6.9 assists...44% FG, 36% 3pt%.

So those last 3 months, he has an unweighted, lazy average of 15.2 pts, 6.2 assists...45% FG, 39% 3pt%. That is pretty dang nice for an $8M starting PG averaging ~32 min a game over those 3 months.

Keep in mind, with Harden, his usage % has dropped a LOT since his time in NY (I think he's now around the mid-teen %'s while at NYK it was closer to 24%? I forget the exact figures). But even so, let us be realistic. Over the course of ALL of Linsanity, 18.4 pts, 8.5 assists...~44% FG, ~32% 3 pt%.

Remember though that his usage rate was a lot higher (for example, he had almost 15 FGAs a game during Linsanity, but less than 12 in the last 3 months). Fewer opportunities to throw those assists out with Harden holding the ball more, and let us be honest, Tyson Chandler can finish those passes in PnRs a LOT more often than Asik can haha.

So I don't know, looking at the last 3 months, I see a lot of progress and a lot of potential with Lin. He will get a lot better next yr. Even if he doesn't, he's still a 15/6 guy with pretty average FG and 3 pt %'s...easily. For $8M? Add in that potential to be better? That is why I feel most LOH arguments are emotions-based and not fact or stats-based. Again, I'm not LOF, I think the guy is aight. I won't shed a tear if he's traded for a better piece, but I don't think he's holding us back either or bad value for his contract. He's just not EXCEEDING his contract like Asik or Parsons are, but are we now really holding him to that standard? lol, if Morey can't get someone who NOTICEABLY exceeds his contract, he's somehow a bust? hmm...

note: sorry, some of my averages are rough approximations and most are unweighted because I am lazy

 

Yeah, not sure how the rep system works either. I've picked up about 60points over the last 3 weeks but have no idea who's giving them to me. And when I hit the 50pt mark I had a lot of privileges taken away like starting threads, ranking... etc. It's weird.

Anyways.

Thanks for nice post with reasoned arguments. Many of these arguments about Lin's season have been made numerous times on this forum. Generally boils down to:

- Had a terrible start to the season (injury, new system, new team, arrival of Harden)

- Had a great end of season (showed he could shoot 3pt @ 40%)

- Overall, performed to his contract and as expected (others on the team outperformed their contracts in comparison, his TO @2.9 a game is also slightly high but has improved to a point where its not a big concern)

Your summation was very nice and I feel the same way. Not opposed to Lin getting traded for a team upgrade, at the same time, would be OK to see him back as he has potential and good work ethic so likely to improve. Has potential to become a top PG in the league.

 

Maybe those people should have realized that Lin was injured and could not even take off his own shirt without assistance.

 

Preconceived notion? He IS turnover prone. He averaged only 0.4 TOs less than Harden per 48 minutes. As any defender of Lin will attest, Harden had the ball a ton more than Lin did, shifting the difference to at least equal and possibly in Hardens favor.

Bottom line is they both have work to do in the TO department. It really makes me laugh when some people try to spin it like Lin is so much better than Harden in this area.

 

Just have a look at their respective Ast/TO ratio and come back.

And the problem is not people spinning in favor of Lin, it's the opposite that created the problem.

 

What does AST\TO have to do with strict turnover numbers? Especially when a good chunk of Hardens TOs come from failed attempts to draw fouls when driving the lane.

The only problem is Lin fans don't want to acknowledge a shortcoming he has in his game and deflect the criticism by pointing to a teammate who averages only slightly more TOs/minute while handling the ball on a much more frequent basis.

Like I said they both have work to do in the decision making department. Both are fairly young guys so there is still plenty of time to fix the problem.

 

~lol~ at the only problem. YOU are the one who brought up Harden, smarta$$. Ast/TO ratio is very important because the more a player passes the ball, the more chance it would get intercepted. All the great PGs have high turnovers because they pass a lot.