1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

Anyone know DMs hit-miss rate in the draft?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by agentkirb87, Apr 10, 2013.

  1. hubeijames

    hubeijames Member

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2013
    Messages:
    459
    Likes Received:
    20
    Yeah, you can't really chop a GM's body of work piecemeal like that. All of his picks and moves add up to the sum of what we have right now.
     
  2. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2010
    Messages:
    11,685
    Likes Received:
    1,113
    Unless you're picking near the top of the draft, you're going to miss more than you hit, and then even if you do, luck can play a big part.
     
  3. thething

    thething Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2008
    Messages:
    2,621
    Likes Received:
    261
    This is a complete list. Guys like Gay, Batum, and Mirotic were not Morey picks, but picks for other teams.

    2006 2 32 Steve Novak
    2007 1 26 Aaron Brooks
    2007 2 31 Carl Landry
    2007 2 54 Brad Newley
    2008 1 28 Donte Greene
    2008 2 33 Joey Dorsey
    2008 2 54 Maarty Leunen
    2009 2 32 Jermaine Taylor
    2009 2 34 Sergio Llull
    2009 2 44 Chase Budinger
    2010 1 14 Patrick Patterson
    2011 1 14 Marcus Morris
    2011 1 20 Donatas Motiejunas
    2011 2 38 Chandler Parsons
    2012 1 12 Jeremy Lamb
    2012 1 16 Royce White
    2012 1 18 Terrence Jones
    2012 2 44 Furkan Aldemir
     
  4. amak316

    amak316 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2013
    Messages:
    281
    Likes Received:
    12
    I love Morey but there are a lot of scrubs on that list. Though not many high picks, prob to be expected. He also seems to be improving (ignoring Royce the tossed salad man White)
     
  5. Benchwarmer

    Benchwarmer Member

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2013
    Messages:
    1,652
    Likes Received:
    33
    Long story short .... Morey is much better at gaining the upper hand in trades and signing free agents than he is at drafting talent.
     
  6. agentkirb87

    agentkirb87 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008
    Messages:
    1,315
    Likes Received:
    24
    Well... the "thesis" statement I was trying to prove is that Morey is really good at getting those niche role players to fill a team. We have a core of Harden, Parsons and to a slightly lesser extent Asik and Lin. And then it's just a matter of filling out the rest of the roster with those role players that can fit what you need off the bench. This year it's Beverly, Jones/Dmo/Smith, and Delfino/Garcia.

    Last year you obviously had different guys as role players... and the prime reason for this is you can't afford to get yourself caught in a situation where you are paying 4-5 million for a guy like Courtney Lee, when Delfino puts up just as much production on a lower salary. Same with Beverly. We could've spent 5 million a year for 3 years on a mediocre vet backup PG like Jarrett Jack (who wasn't a FA but I'm using as an example), and he given us more production, but when you can scout/develop a rookie into that role for pennies on the dollar, that's the better move when you are operating under the cap with plans to spend soon.

    Maybe if we were to add in the undrafted FAs to the mix, but I think you can only sign undrafted FAs if you are under the cap. So it would be a bad argument to pin that as a strength of Morey's and then when/if we spend money this offseason we can't do that anymore anyway.
     
  7. meh

    meh Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2002
    Messages:
    15,385
    Likes Received:
    2,259
    If anyone care for a comparison, here are the Spurs drafts during Morey's tenure.

    Nando De Colo
    Derrick Byars
    Corey Joseph
    Kwahi Leonard
    Tiago Splitter
    Gary Neal
    James Anderson
    Malik Hairston
    Ian Mahinmi
    Marcus Williams
     
  8. rainjacket

    rainjacket Member

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2013
    Messages:
    177
    Likes Received:
    5
    In the same time period OKC drafted

    Durant, Carl Landry (31st pick), Glen Davis (35th pick), Westbrook, Ibaka (24th pick), Harden, Beaubois (25th pick), Bledsoe (18th pick), Pondexter (26th pick).
     
  9. rainjacket

    rainjacket Member

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2013
    Messages:
    177
    Likes Received:
    5
    I'm not sure who was responsible for Landry, he was drafted by OKC but traded to Houston
     
  10. charles_zed

    charles_zed Member

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2012
    Messages:
    1,218
    Likes Received:
    42
    OKC killed the draft.

    Durant, Harden, Westbrook are all high picks though but even the other players are all great. led it. Seattle also drafted Jeff Green as well.

    Scary to think they had Westbrook, Harden, Durant, Green, Ibaka all on the same team that is a loaded roster.
     
  11. DonatasFanboy

    DonatasFanboy Member

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2012
    Messages:
    10,645
    Likes Received:
    504
    half of those people they drafted for someone else, and many of their actual picks aren't even on that list. Pointless.
     
  12. HMMMHMM

    HMMMHMM Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2010
    Messages:
    4,031
    Likes Received:
    597
    Morey has missed on a few players, but besides White all the players he's drafted are/will be at at the very least rotation players.
    His draft record isn't perfect, but the draft is a crap shoot to begin with and only few teams have done better than the Rockets during Morey's tenure.

    Gay, Batum and Mirotic weren't the Rockets picks. The Rockets only drafted them for another team after agreeing to deal their pick to that team.
     
    #32 HMMMHMM, Apr 11, 2013
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2013
    1 person likes this.
  13. charles_zed

    charles_zed Member

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2012
    Messages:
    1,218
    Likes Received:
    42
    Instead of Marcus we could have had Vucevic, Faried, Kawhi, Jimmy Butler.

    Instead of Patterson we could have had Larry Sanders, Bledsoe, Bradley.

    Hindsight is 20/20 though.
     
  14. tallanvor

    tallanvor Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2007
    Messages:
    17,140
    Likes Received:
    8,877
    No. Dawson
     
  15. bloodwings19

    bloodwings19 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2006
    Messages:
    5,406
    Likes Received:
    3,945
    I was really high on Faried, he had an obscene rebounding average in college. You can be tall and not get rebounds like A.Bargnani, or PPat. Faried's FTs and his religion before the draft probaly lowered his ranking. Regardless, Morey's stamp is already on this team, playoff bound. I really hope he is a lifer for the Rockets.
     
  16. Nolen

    Nolen Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 15, 1999
    Messages:
    2,718
    Likes Received:
    1,261
    Something else that is never given enough consideration in these discussions is how rare it is for picks beyond the late first round to become career NBA players.

    I'm sure someone somewhere has done a thorough analysis of this, but to over-generalize: it is rare for picks beyond 20 to pan out as rotational NBA players. Very rare for 2nd rounders.

    It's not just rare for a 2nd rounder to be a good player; it's rare for a second rounder to make it in the NBA beyond their rookie contract.

    Discussions of success in the draft rarely take this into account. You have to change your expectations a lot, depending on where you pick. With that in mind:

    Second Rounders:
    Steve Novak at 32,
    Carl Landry at 31,
    Chase Budinger at 44, and
    Chandler Parsons at 38
    vs
    Brad Newley
    Joey Dorsey
    Marty Leunen
    Jermaine Taylor
    Sergio Luill
    Furkan Aldemir (drafted in 2012, have to defer judgement till later.)

    This is an amazing success rate for late picks. Seriously, batting almost .500 on second round picks? And finding a true starting forward in Parsons?

    Aaron Brooks at 26 was solid. He made a real contribution as a starter on a good team (including playoffs vs LA), and he will be a career NBA player.

    Batum was traded for Donte Green who was a linchpin in the Ron Artest trade, a very solid trade.

    Taken at 20 and below:
    Donte Montejunas at 20
    Terrence Jones at 18
    Royce White 16
    Morris at 14
    Patrick Patterson at 14
    Jeremy Lamb at 12

    The only bust I see taken at 20 or below is Royce White. Every single other player is or will be a solid NBA player. How many busts are drafted between 1 and 20? A lot. A lot.

    Our drafting success under Morey is excellent. Over the past six years, our drafting success (taking into account where we picked) compares well against anyone outside of OKC.
     
    2 people like this.
  17. morpheus133

    morpheus133 Member

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2003
    Messages:
    2,534
    Likes Received:
    180
    Gay was a trade made while Dawson was GM. Yes Morey was assistant and heavily involved and reported to be in favor of it. Ultimately Dawson was the GM so he gets the credit and blame. Just like a head coach gets credit or blame over an assistant head coach for wins and losses even if it was an assistant coach who suggested that last second play that wins or loses the game.

    Considering how low most of the Rocket's picks have been, it's hard to argue that anyone consistently drafted better than the Rockets. That certainly doesn't mean every pick is 100% the best player that could possibly have been drafted in hind sight though. Nobody does that.

    Here is a list of Morey's moves:
    http://hoopshype.com/general_managers/daryl_morey.htm
    and a list of Carroll Dawson's for anyone interested:
    http://hoopshype.com/general_managers/carroll_dawson.htm
     
  18. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2010
    Messages:
    24,028
    Likes Received:
    19,942
    Its important to note that there is a problem quantifying this because so many guys like Batum, Mirotic, and Gay were NOT selected by Houston. The selection was only a formality. The team trading for those players conveyed to the Rockets who they are selecting.

    Anyways, like Deckard said, its hard to quantify who was a + or a - because take for instance Jeremy Lamb. It doesn't matter what kind of player he becomes because he was a major piece involved in getting them James Harden... So does it really matter how great he becomes in the end? Jeremy Lamb the asset was a + even if Jeremy Lamb the player turns out to be a -.

    Like all professional sports teams and the draft, there is a very low probability of that player ever becoming good at the next level much less great. I would say Morey's track record is much, much better than most teams especially later in the draft where he seems to be able to outsmart most GM's by finding undervalued diamonds in the rough like Parsons, Budinger, Landry, Brooks, etc. etc.,

    *Better yet Morey's track record at NOT EVEN USING DRAFT PICKS to find freebies like Hayes, Beverley, G. Smith, etc. is better than anyone else has ever seen in the NBA. Give this guy one or two foundation players, and he can build a team of solid players around them better than anyone else.
     
  19. DonatasFanboy

    DonatasFanboy Member

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2012
    Messages:
    10,645
    Likes Received:
    504
    tbh, i don't see anything special about getting a bunch of backups in mid round 1. i'd rather see a few busts and some real hits than a bunch of mediocrity.
    Aaron Brooks was a very nice pick for a late 1, otherwise it's a depressing list. Maybe one of the current rookies becomes at least an average starter to make it look better.

    Morey has been really good with early 2s. But overall, nothing special. It's his trading and aggression that makes him a very good GM, not draft success.
     
  20. mirus

    mirus Member

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2012
    Messages:
    1,297
    Likes Received:
    22
    This.He knew how to turn undervalued guys into solid trade value , & roll them for an even higher value.This is what Morey is good at.

    Btw you have been called as a prophet :)
    http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=236840
     
    1 person likes this.

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now