aapl is really plummeting im thinking of going Long on it tomorrow given I can get it in the 410-419 range....all bs aside, theyre a solid company with a strong brand and a loyal fanbase.....not to mention over $150B cash in the bank now, theyre not going bankrupt.....losing marketshare yes, but not bankrupt anyone else buying apple here?
The only way to get blown out of the AAPL short is if you committed 100% of your capital to it alone. Of course I would not recommend committing 100% of your capital to any investment. Especially when the short AAPL portion is only 50% of the investment. With that said, even for the GOOG/AAPL pairs, I was clearly early. At its lows, the trade had a drawdown of roughly -28%. For a trade, I would have been wrong, as I was with the naked AAPL short at the time. However, I did specifically state that the pairs was recommended as a longterm investment, rather than trade. With that in mind, -28% is not nearly as bad, instead offering an opportunity to average down. Assuming you followed investing norms of not committing your entire bank account to one investment, you would have cash left to do so. More than anything, the fundamentals of the pair trade is becoming increasingly obvious. Goog's "open" commoditization strategy of giving the Android away for free will eventually plummet Aapl's margins as phones like the Galaxy continue to gain share. The only way out of this for Aapl is for it to offer pioneering new innovation like it has in the past. The next Iphone 10 or Ipad 8 isn't going to cut it, the world has caught up. To maintain the largest capitalization the world has seen, it has to continue to lead, something I would bet against with the loss of Steve Jobs. My original thesis. This has happened before with MSFT vs AAPL with PCs vs Macs, this will happen again now. If we don't learn from history, we are doomed to... you know how it goes.
Google doesn't even make money of android. They make money of search and advertising. As more people use mobile some of their views on desktop will move to mobile and I don't know if they can charge the same rates on mobile. I don't know if google is a good long at these prices.
They are at a market cap of 400 billion and they have cash of 137 billion. However a lot of that cash hasn't been taxes so suppose they really have 100 billion, well you have a potential to lose 300 billion. 5 years ago Symbian, rimm, palm, and Microsoft had 83% of the market share now they have very little. Nokia used to be biggest phone maker in the world and they are now almost bankrupt. Things change really fast in tech.
Top in the market within 10 trading days. 2,000+ point decline to come. Not shorting yet, I'll post it when I do. Really nice run up the last few years. Robbie about to learn what a "market neutral" strategy means.
Hows BAC doing now? O really? :grin: Winners.... I still trade but post less here, mostly on Twitter...I've made a nice amount of money. My latest heist was ACAD, almost 5k in 5 days.
4/17/12 We eventually did finally make new all time highs and broke 650 on 8/20, which did indeed turn out to be the final leg up to lure in the last of the suckers of this bubble. At this point, a break of 400 is mostly assured. A 50% drop from all time highs to 350 as predicted is highly likely. Will it get to the 200s like I originally called for? That will likely take years for the excesses to get worked out, becoming one of the most hated dog **** stocks on the street fallen from one of its darlings. Much like what happened to it in the mid '90s. This is a cycle that repeats itself time and again. None of these tech darlings lasts the test of time. The industry simply moves too fast. And it's cash??? No one gives a **** about its cash hoard. That was a laughable reason to buy and hold on to the stock and always was. Shorting AAPL on Steve Job's passing was too early. Selling AAPL above 400 now isn't too late. Like I keep saying, this will be one of the worst investments of the next decade.
The end is nigh. Markets making all time highs with consumer staples carrying the leadership role? Recipe for disaster. Not short yet, the tail end of these bubble moves are always dangerous, as AAPL has shown us. With that said, I am biding my time to jump on this thing. The S&P will be in triple digits within 2 years.
So do you think the economy is going to get significantly worse? Housing certainly seems to have bottomed. I can't see there being that big of a reversal with housing being stable. I mean if it did drop that much then I would be buying, but who knows... FWIW, I have conflicting sentiment indicators. Robin Quivers (from Howard Stern) is trading stocks, so that would be a bearish indicator. Then the bullish indicator was a call from the investment guy over at Wells Fargo where I bank. I started an account back in mid-2010 with a conservative type investment group that he referred me to. I liked what they had to say and the account has outperformed the market so it's done well. I've scarcely heard from the investment/sales guy since I started the account. I get a call from him last week after hearing nothing for about 24 months and he starts with, "Robbie, how would you be handle your account dropping 20%?" The investment/sales guy has been dead wrong on the market for a long time. I wouldn't trust him with my money at all. So in conclusion, with this random investment guy worrying about huge pullbacks and with Robin Quivers trading stocks I'll give this rally another couple of months. And all that said I haven't hardly traded for the past 5 or 6 weeks. Just been hanging out at the house and doing side stuff with the UPS Stores which are destroying gold like I said they would
The topping process will take weeks of back and filling most likely. We probably won't go appreciably higher from here, though. I'd say we are within 5% of the top. But again, you never know with the tails of these moves, so I am still on the sidelines for now until a signal.
I've never understood the point of these types of predictions. What's he's actually saying is if the market doesn't go up from here, it could go down. What does that really tell us?
ATVI. New gaming consoles coming out this year, new BLOPS coming out this year, WOW still as strong ss ever and development of a similar game in the works, and they have begun to sneak into the online gaming industry
