You did not answer the main question. Your premise is then that anyone if "handed the keys to the car from the start" will produce similar numbers to Lin's? That's what you believe?
If you are counting that then we should look at Lin's average stats for the first 50 games which plenty of players can compare to. I'm pretty sure the talk is about his big games which were under Mike D and then last night when he got to run the show with Harden out.
Since you believe that his first 50 games are not that special, would you please give some instances of players that have produced similarly in their first 50 games that then went on to just have so-so careers? This is an honest question as I'm curious about the answer.
i'm not going to even ask....or google. But I will say, I think it means Lin's needs the spotlight on him, which makes me wonder if he can be in the shadow of Harden. I am going to see how he plays these next few games and how he plays when Harden comes back. Hopefully it's just a confidence thing.
It doesn't change the argument, if anything it reinforces it. His age was 25, similar to Lin's, so he was not hitting his prime yet. Also, his large sample size only proves that you never know what you will get out of a player, especially if they have small sample sizes. Picking his best year doesn't disprove that fact, especially since his age in his best year was similar to Lin's. All it shows is that a player could look really good, but it could be a fluke. What if Lin's first 50 games are his best games in his career and he will start going downhill from there? If he picked his best year, when he was 27 for example, then one could make that argument that the argument is not sound.
The problem with your argument is that you seem to assume that many young players would've been able to do what Lin has done if their usage rates were similar. While that may or may not be true, you seem to be ignoring the most important fact, which is that Lin actually took advantage of his opportunity and put together a record-setting run. That shouldn't get devalued because theoretically, other young PGs may have done similarly had they been in the same situation. Young PGs have played in D'Antoni's system before, yet none of them went off like Lin did. If Lin was just a function of his time and place, then how come it's never happened before? Surely if an undrafted Harvard grad who barely had any time to mesh with his team could set NBA records, a well-pedigreed first-rounder who encountered a soft schedule would've already had a Linsanity-like streak. And against San Antonio, there wasn't some special game plan for Lin to dominate.
I disagree. He doesn't need the spotlight on him at all. In NY under Woodson with Carmelo & Amare in the lineup Lin averaged 18 & 8 per 36 with improved shooting, less TO's & better defense. In the first two game in Houston with Harden when he had the ball in his hands more he played well. Lin doesn't need the spotlight on him at all, in fact he is the total opposite. He needs the ball in his hands to be effective. He is a good shooter off the dribble not in catch & shoot situations. He needs screens & picks set for him. He is right dominant, Harden is left dominant that makes things SO much easier for the Rockets in terms of positioning them on the wing. He doesn't need the offense to run through him, but he does need to direct the offense more than he has been. He isn't CP3 he can't direct every offensive possession, nobody smart is asking for that. What people are asking is that he direct more possessions than he has been thus far & Harden play off the ball. A 60 - 40 balance favouring Lin or 70 30 would be ideal. Frankly it depends on the teams as well, if Lin is struggling let Harden make plays & vice versa. Harden is a much better player than Lin he has the talent to play off the ball Lin does not have that talent at all, the kid is lost on the wing. Just a few thoughts.
Age 27 was a much worse year for Devin Harris. apollo picked age 25 for a reason. If he wanted the exact age comparison, Devin Harris played at age 24 as well. Why not pick that year (that's Lin's age)? Why a "similar" age and not the exact age if you're going to do a true comparison? Maybe because he averaged 7 pts per game less while averaging 1.5 assists less than at age 25. He picked age 25 for a reason. You know, I'm bringing facts and trying to have a rational discussion, and you're accepting bad logic and arguments that are not sound. Look at the posts above, and you'll see I'm bringing data points and facts to the argument. Sorry dude, but you're not worth the honest effort. I apologize, but I'm putting you on ignore as I'd rather have a more meaningful discussion -- okay to disagree, but with an effort to finding out what's more true rather than the trash logic you're bringing.
What's your opinion regarding migrant workers? Will you keep watching basketball if all the GMs/Coaches and Owners are black?
Lin's averages over his first 50 games is not all that great. I can find lots of players with comparable averages for their first 50 starts. If you aren't talking about his averages you should reread what I said.
You are assuming I'm making those arguments. I simply asked how many people have had that many minutes with such high usage rates in their first 50 games. My point is that I don't think it is an average occurrence so it is unfair to disqualify so many quality players simply because they didn't get the same opportunity in their first 50 games. For example, if Kobe didn't get the same opportunities in his first 50 games because of how he was developed he gets automatically disqualified from being in the argument. I am in no way saying everybody can do it but I am saying that players that could have where never given the chance to do so so in their first 50.
I guess you just have to nitpick the seasons too, Harris was 25 at the time which is still pretty damn young and at a developing part of his career. How about this, Jennings In his 6th, 7th, 10th game of his career, he scored 32-9-4, 55-5-5, 29-9-4. Again great single game numbers, again predicted really nothing about his potential or future. I don't even know why would a sane basketball fan make a such a big deal out of 2 38 point games of a player, no matter what year he is in. And people constantly bring up Lebron, Jordan and stuff also achieved this like it has ANYTHING to do with Lin's potential. And by the way Devin Harris wasn't a bust, Lin wishes he will ever achieve what Harris achieved in 2008-2009.
Once Amare and Carmelo returned, Lin faded quite a bit. You have to ask yourself a more fundamental question. Why does Lin need the ball in his hands to be effective? Or you can broaden that to - why does any player need the ball in their hands to be effective? I'm curious to hear people's answers.
I'm gonna take a go at this. There's many answers to this depending on different type of players. But I do believe that Nash and Lin falls into the same category to why they need the ball in their hands to be effective. In my observation, I see these 2 as high BBallIQ strategists. Meaning these guys have the whole floor plan laid out in their mind and have great intuition on how everyone is going to react and move based on what action they take. So when they have the ball, they can dictate the movement of the offense because they are the starting piece where as if they don't have the ball, they have to react to unforeseen variables. It's probably because they think too much on how to react to the unforeseen variables, they become hesitant until it's too late. Where as players like Kidd are true facilitators on pacing and handling the team. This for me is why Steve Nash is still effective at this age. Just my theory.
I think the "needs to have the ball in his hands" theory is a myth for any player. Sure some players need the ball to get comfortable - but really that means that they are poorly disciplined or lack confidence - sulk when they aren't the focal point. Nash was effective because he got rid of the ball pretty quickly. He never was a big time scorer (except maybe his MVP season) nor was he the fastest pg. But he was solid offensively and was an incredible passer - perhaps the best at his peak - better than magic even. But the way to contain him was to "keep the ball in his hands" and take away his devastating passing. The Suns weren't putting up 110 points a game with Nash running out the 24 second shot clock dribbling the ball each time the court. There is no reason by Jlin can't be effective playing off the ball. He can still see the court. The same unforseen variables are in play. There are 5 defenders and 4 teammates - exact same variables. As soon as the ball comes to him, he should know what to do with it - in fact, he's at an advantage since the defense has to rotate and adjust since he is not the one breaking it down. He can shoot, drive, or pass just like he can when he is "handling the ball more". It's psychological at best. He doesn't need the ball in his hands more, he needs to carry his head high and not pout after games when he wasn't that involved. I've been a big supporter and fan of his - and still am, but I think he has to get a lot tougher deep down inside. There is no reason for him to play amazing when Harden is out and to play subpar when he is back. That's Jeremy Lin being a kid. I am sure he will grow up and mature - but let's just be honest and drop the he needs to dominate the ball to be effective.
Hey i love your posts so I will take a crack at it. This is incorrect. When Melo & Amare returned Lin was still putting up 18 & 8 per 36. By faded quite a bit you mean he stopped putting up 20+ points & 10 assists then hell yes he faded lol. But I still think 18 & 8 is still pretty amazing. Did anybody in there right mind SERIOUSLY think he would keep putting up 20 & 10 my goodness. The people that put up the whole he never played as good as before or he fell back down to earth with Melo & Amare are delusional (no offense). Obviously he wouldn't keep putting up those numbers His shot attempts dropped justifiably so also he was being increasingly scouted as well. If Lin continued to put up 20 & 10 on less shot attempts he would be the second coming of Magic Johnson. It isn't about Lin needing the ball in his hands. This angle is overplayed & doesn't get to the deeper issue at hand. After all Lin played well with Amare & Melo. The issue is that Lin needs to run the PNR consistently. He needs a steady diet of it. That is the issue. He isn't getting that. Lin's entire identity is in the PNR mainly which he is very good at 47th in the NBA. With Harden Lin isn't getting enough PNR plays. In NY the PNR constituted 43% of his offense in Houston it is 29%. What was the difference in the Spurs game. Well he was getting all the PNR plays in the world & had the chance to either pass or score just like he was in NY. All those PNR plays that would be going to Harden (50/50 split) were giving exclusively to him. All the screens that were usually set for Harden were being set for Lin. Isolation plays, jumpers off the dribble all of that were his. Right now Lin & Harden are the exact same player in terms of how they play but Harden is elite whereas Lin is very good. The funny thing is that both Harden & Lin are running the PNR 29 % of the time but Harden ranks 3rd in the NBA & Lin 47th. Harden can run the PNR just as much as Lin but still have the third best PPP. For Lin's PPP to be as high as Hardens he would have to run the PNR at least 40+% of the time but he still wouldn't be as good LOL. That just shows you how amazing of a player Harden is & how much further Lin has to grow. In NY he was spotting up 13% of the time & he was mediocre at it then, in Houston he is spotting up 27% of the time & he is still mediocre at it. The difference is that Lin has been doing less of what he is good at when he should be doing more, but more of what he is bad at when he should be doing less. Like I said it isn't about having the ball in his hands but about being able to run the PNR over & over & over again. That is what he needs to be more productive to be honest but he just isn't getting that. Part of it is because Harden is here but a lot of it is our front court as well. Aside from Asik nobody else in the front court sets effective picks/screens. I elaborated more on it in this thread in terms of how both players & the team overall can improve going forward. It is a complicated situation & I think the overall answer is time & patience. The team needs the former & fans need the latter. http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=230662&page=5 See Post 82 & 93.
