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[Grantland] BS Report on Harden Deal

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by stl1622dc, Oct 30, 2012.

  1. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    I disagree that this is only the opinion of clutchfans. Several other analysts think the Thunder shouldn't have broke it up. Charles said it was a good move, Kenny did not. Go to Real GM, they have a post about this and the people are split.

    I don't think this is a biased thing. Fact, the Thunder downgraded.

    If the Heat did that to Harden, what are they going to do to Martin? One can make a great argument that the Thunder do not get past the Spurs without Harden. They downgraded.

    Even if Harden is nothing but a very good player they lose this trade because they have taken for granted a championship team. Not easy to build.

    I do agree that it has been easier to find good PGs rather than SGs. Right now, Harden is the best young SG in the NBA. No doubt about that. I think the thunder risked more and lost more than the Rockets did.
     
  2. Agent94

    Agent94 Member

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    There is no way OK gets this good of a deal if they wait until the end of the season to trade Harden. What are the odds of OK winning the title this season with harden? Harden was going to be one and done, so they took the deal now instead of getting less later.
     
  3. GideonC

    GideonC Member

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    Can anyone think of a 3-1 or 4-1 trade for a star (I know Harden isn't quite a "star" yet... but he's obviously a huge talent with a great chance at true stardom) in which the team getting multiple lesser players actually got the best of the trade? Real question... maybe there are some out there. Off hand, thinking about all the trades like this, it seems like the team getting the one high-level player usually comes out way on top.
     
  4. redhotrox

    redhotrox Contributing Member

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    Carmelo trade.
     
  5. leebigez

    leebigez Contributing Member

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    HeyP and Jay Google, if you go back and read what I posted about the thunder, I said they should've traded harden to bobcats for the 2nd pick in the draft. I think people quickly forget until last yr, people were wondering if this guy was gonna come around. I mean to me, his upside is joe johnson except johnson has produced as a starter once he got to phoenix.

    Why wait if you've made your last,best offer and have peopleasking the same questions? That's a major distraction to a young team. The 80s lkers traded norm nixon for a rookie after winning 2 titles and losing in the finals in 83. They will be fine without harden because they have 2 top 10 players in the entire nba. They also have ibaka,martin,maynor,pj3, and the toronto pick. Thing is, westbrook,durant,and ibaka are getting better. They have to maintain flexibilty. If he really wanted to stay, he would've taken less like westbrook did. It was a win-win and very necessary for them.
     
  6. GideonC

    GideonC Member

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    Gallinari, Mozgov, & Felton + 2014 Knicks pick < Carmelo IMO... obv close though... that's probably the most even star for pieces trade.
     
  7. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    Here's a controversial statement:

    If they didn't trade Harden, OKC was not a contender this season.

    Here's why: chemistry. The thing they had going on was team chemistry. Fail to agree upon an extension for Harden, and under the new CBA it's pretty damn obvious you're not only getting nothing back for him, but he's gone, walking out the door and finished. Of course he's wanting a max contract, and so there's that inevitable feeling all season long that he might be traded, nobody is really sure, and the locker room just doesn't have the same feel.
    Oh, did I mention that everyone on the team (save Durant) has taken less to 'stick around and be part of the title team'? Harden just turned down his 'small amount less' - it's entirely possible the other guys start getting irritated by that as well. More pressure to add to the locker room situation.
    And finally, Harden might start getting itchy, getting the grief from his agent to force the issue, and 'showcase' himself. Only leads to further chemistry issues.

    Now this may not have happened - but Presti saw that there was a chance, and loaded up on 'assets' that he can swing for a semi-star around trade deadline time. He was willing to pay Harden just a little less than the max for 4 years, so we'd have to imagine he'd bite at the 'right guy' in that semi-star category, and he now has Martin to match salary, and draft picks to tempt someone to pass them on. OR he has the ability to use those draft picks to shuffle Perkins for an expiring.
    Bottom line, OKC may not have finished retooling their roster for this season, and whenever they have Westbrook and Durant, they're title contenders. Sure, it's an immediate step back to lose Harden, but give it 2-3 months and let's see what they make of it.
     
  8. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    Here's why I think OKC made a mistake: Even if Harden's extension is not done, he's still gonna be a RESTRICTED free agent next season.

    This gives OKC the option of playing the year out, taking another shot at the title with their current cast, before having to make the decision of whether to pay Harden or trade him for valuable package (the threat of them matching all offers gives them the leverage to make such a trade). They can also sign him back to that max contract and then trade him later for a lot in return (the only reason why OKC had reservations about paying Harden the max was the tax implication, most teams in the league would gladly trade a ton of assets for a re-signed Harden).


    In sum, it seems OKC really jumped the gun on this one. They didn't have much to lose by waiting, and have much to gain-- i.e. at least one more shot at the title with Harden on board.
     
    2 people like this.
  9. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    I remember those rumors about him being dealt, to the bobcats? I actually think the Thunder got a better haul here, but then again I think Lamb will be better than Beal and all those other guys that were drafted ahead of him.

    I used to think his ceiling was something like Johnson too, but that is because I thought he was a guy that was just content with being a bench player and playing behind Westbrook and Durant. Happy to be a '6th man' and nothing more. OBviously with some things we've learned about Harden, that may not entirely be true. He has complained about shots and it seems he wants all the individual accolades any other star player wants. I always thought he was happy with his 6th man role on a winning team. Seems not. That's a good thing for Houston, they want a guy who wants to be the best and prove to everyone that he is more than just a 6th man so we'll see.

    I just think the Thunder lost more than the Rockets did. Martin and unproven assets is all they lost. We'll see, Harden gave something unique to that team especially that will be difficult to replace. I think that team represents the West one more time. IMO that is worth more, a single shot at the trophy is worth more than Lamb and a Lottery pick. I don't see that happening now.

    Maybe Martin proves me wrong, but I think he is what he is. I see him being a complete negative on defense and unreliable in the clutch, and that's not going to get them to the finals this year.
     
  10. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    This is not a random scenario...OKC actually traded Harden for Martin and pick.

    If OKC was your favorite team, are you actually telling me you would be happy with this?

    Don't freaking dismiss my question. There is no chance in hell the person I know as leebigez on CF.net would be happy with that trade.

    You just don't like trading picks...I think.
     
  11. mirus

    mirus Member

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    two questions:
    is a 1st round rfa not tradable within a year?
    is it possible that okc would look to another trade ie with martin +picks.
    i've seen ths idea thrown in another forum
    thanks
     
  12. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    Do you want me to tell you how many times you have said this in the last 4 days?

    Don't be like DD...let others like me find low activity threads with high value and you and tinman stay out of them...because all you do now is attract the Walking Dead conversations.

    You do,,,you never should have started that Lin vs Harden thread.

    Stay away from our low activity threads...please. Like you need them.
     
  13. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    When did I post in a Lin v. Harden thread and what did I say? Sorry, I'm just confused what you are getting at.
     
    #33 Carl Herrera, Oct 31, 2012
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2012
  14. leslie

    leslie Member

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    I guess they may trade Martin (+ the Dallas and Cha picks) for J. Smith or Jefferson at the trade deadline. I don't see them re-signing with their teams next summer. Not a bad deal if they end up with Smith/Jefferson + lottery pick + Lamb.
     
  15. leebigez

    leebigez Contributing Member

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    If I were a okc fan, I would be cool with this trade because my 2 superstars are durant and westbrook. Durant and wesbrook are under 25 and this is not the end game. They got a good haul and still are in the upward mobility business. They have martin and his 12m expiring and raptors pick. Given their financial situation based on market size,they may not want a max deal type player,but maybe someone along the lines of a 8m player.

    CH, I disagree about waiting it out to a degree. My disagreement is the distraction to a young team. They made him a valid offer and he turned it down or wanted to wait. Maybe presti didn't want the same dwight howard saga next year. So, a team couldn't offer him more than what the thunder offered him,but maybe they offer or structure it front loaded? Its easy to say ,just match. What if he never signs an offer and just does the tender so he can be totally free after next season,then what?
     
  16. Spiegel

    Spiegel Member

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    Based on Hardens age and his status as a top 3 SG allready without even coming close to reaching his prime both teams did well.We gave away a guy who wasnt coming back anyway and a rookie who might or not might panout.The Dallas pick will be a mid to late 1st rounder and the Bobcats pick is going to be a early second rounder. The Raptors pick will probaly in the 8 to the 14 range.

    This deal wont hurt our ability to be a major playerin the free agent market either and infact having a foundation of Harden with good role players like Lin, Asik and Parsons will also help future free agents decision making.
     
  17. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    I think you're overvaluing what offers were available. I'm sure Presti had at least talked to 20 other GMs and got a feeling on what they could offer. If he felt there would likely be a similar offer on the table next offseason, I think he would've let things ride out. But there probably weren't a lot of attractive offers.

    Also one thing to keep in mind is that through this trade, the Thunder can re-sign KMart while being over the cap. It's not a slam dunk that KMart at his age and injury history will command a huge contract. If he stays for slightly above MLE money, I think that can be a bargain for a team like OKC. And he would not have been included in any package the Rockets can send next offseason.
     
  18. leebigez

    leebigez Contributing Member

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    I agree. They said presti talked to every team in the league to get a feel about a deal if he turned down their offer. Looking at what the rockets gave up, it looks like the best deal from both sides. The rockets got hope and the thunder got flexibility. As I stated earlier, this doesn't mean either team is done. I mean,they're are teams trying to rebuild and start over. What are the hawks doing now that howard is in la?
     
  19. bloodwings19

    bloodwings19 Member

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    Westbrook is a great player, but his head is just not there. He is the M.Vick of basketball, a lot of talent, but not a lot of field commanding. He'll make foolish errors like picking up Ts in critical moments, or just shoots lights out while Durant is open. In M.Vick, he rather take a sack than throw the ball away, or just hold the ball too long and fumbles.

    OKC GM panicked, he was thinking about LBJ, Melo and Bosh too much. These players left when they refused to sign extension, the difference is that they played with players not on the same level with Westbrook and Durant. I'm quite sure Westbrook and Durant would re-worked their contracts for Harden. If they flop in the 1st and 2nd round, there will be a lot of questioning.
     
  20. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist
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    How would the chemistry work if KD and Westbrook took less than the Max and all of a sudden Harden gets the Max?

    A trade kicker restricts their flexibility to trade him. It's not just a matter of the other team paying him more.

    I think this deal worked out well for both teams. Martin will almost replace the production for a year, Lamb should develop behind KD and Martin, 2 first rounders and 1 second rounder for their trouble. They will be almost as good as last year and continue to improve internally, while their next few years look much better than it did.

    I agree they are slightly less likely to win it all this season, but they are MORE likely to win it between 2012-2015 after the trade IMO. Giving him the Max would create problems and keeping him till he becomes a RFA would create problems. OKC is not good enough to endure chemistry issues and Harden won a lot of games for them.
     

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