Jeremy Lin on the Rockets Part II: Turnovers in Transition and Defensive Issues

Valid Points. I supported the first article and I support this one (not going to pick and choose)

 

Defensive ability out of the PG position is largely overrated. It's kind of like having a center being able to shoot 3's, it's nice to have but it's not necessary. Defense is still largely a function of team work and the big man that anchors it. Derrick Rose is a sub par defender but his recent Bulls have consistently put up historically good defensive numbers. Kyle Lowry is an elite defensive PG individually, but where did that get us defensively overall the past few years?

 

Lol. Yeah. From what I saw Lin is an average defender. Quicker guards are usually able to get past him. There was a video of him training with his little brother and his little brother was able to blow by him. That says something about his man to man defense. Usually what Lin does best is trail his defender and grab a steal or sometimes block his shot. His team defense and help defense is better than his man to man, and he plays the passing lanes well. But in terms of keeping guys in front of him that his where he struggles. Like there were a few games where he was really good defensively, against Rose for example, but then there were other games where he was not so good against Jose. He did improve better towards the end of his stretch, and I think his conditioning or lack thereof played a part. But yeah, he is average defensively in my opinion.

 

Great read. They didnt mention Lin's knack for creating turnovers though. His D needs to improve but he has Asik watching his back!

 

But still though. He has to improve at keeping his man in front of him. There were games where he was really locked in, like against Rose that was one of his best defensive efforts. And even against Deron Williams, the second time he played him, Deron couldn't get into the paint but that night Dwill was hot from 3 so he shot 12 3's and hit on 8 of them. I think he does a lot on the offensive end so he gets tired on the other end and he also likely has to improve his agility. When his little brother is able to get past him it ain't a good look.

 

No worries about defense, bro. I got it covered.




For what it's worth, the Knicks put up above average defensive #s (opponents scored 100.6 points per 100 possession) while Lin was on the court, and this number is 2.1 points per 100 possessions better than the Knicks gave up without him.

Now, this doesn't mean Lin is as plus defender. However, it probably does mean that it is possible to be a good defensive team with Lin on the floor as long as you have other good defenders on the floor with him and the team plays smart D as a unit. On last year's NY team, they had Tyson Chandler manning the middle, along with other good energetic defenders in Jared Jeffries and Iman Shumper. Not sure how the Rockets rotation will work out, but Omer Asik should be a defensive stalwart if he manages to stay on the floor and Parsons, Patterson and Delfino should all be plus defenders.

 

I was going to mention how transition turnovers for Lin this season wouldn't really matter since we have guys like Royce White and Terrence Jones who could grab the rebound and initiate the break themselves instead of passing it to Lin, but he covered all of that.

Great read.

 

Also if one of the players sprints down the floor fast enough and goes for the alley oops Lin is a pretty good outlet passer. In terms of making quick decisions in transition that is a quick decision he is able to make. In training camp hopefully they can build up the chemistry in terms of anticipating the pass. The funny thing is I always thought he was good in transition, partially because of those outlet passes he tosses. I was wrong.

 

No it won't. That's absurd. First of all, point guards aren't defensive stoppers. You don't want them to be defensive stoppers because what happens if they get into foul trouble? Iman Shumpert played next to Lin last year and was amazing at on the ball defense, but he also got yanked regularly for picking up quick fouls.

Second, this article is baloney. There's a reason this guy is an assistant at the D-league level. Isolation defense is a great stat to evaluate someone's defensive abilities? Tosh. Maybe if we were playing street ball?

As a matter of fact, according to Synergy, Lin was in the top third for opponent points allowed among players. For example, that's significantly better than Ray Felton:

Defense Last Season
Felton Lin
Opp Pts per play 0.86 0.82
Opp PPP rank* 133rd 78th
Opp FG pct 41.6 37.8
* Of 235 players to defend at least 300 plays

[http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/46697/felton-over-lin-might-be-a-mistake]

The only thing that matters is how you contribute to keeping the whole other team from scoring efficiently. Not just on ball isolation defense. All defense. And "all defense" encompasses a lot more scoring than isolation defense. Anyone who's played basketball at a high level, and is one of those stereotypically "heady" players, understands how important calculating all potential scoring threats in real time is, and how you need to hedge and play angles to reduce the total threats. Here's an article that talks about this in depth:

[http://nbaplaybook.com/2012/06/15/time-for-more-collison/]

Lin is really good at this aspect of defense, and I don't think so just because he's smart and went to Harvard, but because I've watched him play. Moreover, he had the number 1 defensive rating in the D-league when he spent significant minutes there:

[http://www.nba.com/dleague/news/the_hidden_side_jeremy_lin_2012_02_15.html]

Now, the stupid macho bro-ey response to that is "well that's just the D-league". No ****, and that's why he didn't have the number one defensive rating in the NBA last year. However, just like college stats, expression of abilities at closely preceding elite levels project at a meaningful fraction to the next level. Steve Nash would not have the number one defensive rating in the D-league.

Luckily, we have even better information: Last year with the Knicks. Was Lin effective on aggregate defensive production? Yes. The Knicks were a top 5 defensive team last year. With Lin on the floor, their defense got even better:

[http://www.nba.com/2012/news/features/john_schuhmann/07/19/knicks-amare-carmelo/index.html]

The analysis there brings up a crucial point. Yes, although he's quite athletic, Lin is not Iman Shumpert. He needs tools to help him use his basketball IQ to limit opponent points, for example an effective shot blocking center that he can funnel his man to. To wit: "[Lin and Chandler] ranked ... 16th of 470 two-man combinations that logged at least 600 minutes together last season." Pretty good, no? Lin and Chandler had the best two man defensive rating on the Knicks, a top 5 defensive team. So at the very least, when paired with appropriate people, Lin is capable of leveraging other elite defenders to achieve elite defensive interaction affects. If Asik is as good as advertised, there should be little cause for fear.

Of course, some of this is subtle. What's going to happen is that people suffering from confirmation bias are only going to remember the times that Lin gets beat off the dribble. And this being basketball, and basketball meaning you get beat off the dribble more often than not, I expect the "nyah, nyah, Lin sucks at defense" choruses to continue unabated. Irrefutable prior evidence notwithstanding.

 

Same here. With those outlet passes, the failed ones were usually only a couple feet too far ahead, and you instinctively think "oh well" and shrug it off. The intercepted and over-hasty passes made me think "ah, he's still learning the ropes". I didn't think it was that bad of a problem.

On defense, I'm a bit torn. While PG defense isn't as important as, say, post defense, we still shouldn't let the opposing PG consistently work his way into the paint and force rotations. Hopefully, he'll have improved his stamina and lateral agility by the time training camp rolls around.

 

And, oh by the way, Lin was in the top 5 for steals/48 as a starter among starters. Of course, I'm bored to tears by now with people "explaining" that steals don't make you a good defender. They certainly make you a better defender than not, all else being equal. If you don't concede that, then let's at least subtract the steals from his turnovers, so, voila, he's not nearly as possession-losing as folks say. Turnovers must mean *something*.

 

Omer Asik isn't Tyson Chandler though. People have legitimate concerns about Omer getting into foul trouble and Lin getting beat off the dribble doesn't help that necessarily. So it is something to think about.

 

Loved your thoughts, Formido. Good analysis.

 

I think this analysis is fair. I don't trust Lin defending an elite PG in clutch time. Now there is data backing it. Hopefully Lin can improve in this aspect.

Lin will learn to run fast breaks better. He is smart and has a good court vision. Composure will come with experience.

 

Unless I'm mistaken, I believe Lin's a legit 6'4 w/shoes. Given that Toney Douglas is a pretty good defender, I wouldn't be surprised if he and Lin saw a lot of time together, with Jeremy checking the opponents 2 guard on D and Douglas playing off the ball and spotting up for 3s on offense.

 

Defensive ability is not all about ISO.

To guard an elite player, many teams would use double team.

 

Lin playing with Asik/Parson/Ppat should cover up his defensive deficiencies although I'm worried about Kmart/Lin backcourt.

 

i watch almost all of jeremy lin's games last year & i saw a point guard throwing alley hoops, no look passes in transition. even saw a buncha touchdown passes to melo akin to lebron & wades.

dont agree with this article. Lin was quite competent running fast breaks.

 

The oppsing PG can't stop Lin either....