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Our team around Dwight: Has anything really changed?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by The Cat, Jul 6, 2012.

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  1. The Cat

    The Cat Contributing Member

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    Preface: This thread isn’t for those who were against Dwight Howard from the beginning. I understand those of you in that group, even though I disagree. This is for the growing number of posters who DID want Dwight a week ago, but suddenly think the roster is too “gutted” to have any shot at convincing him to stay. Also, for purpose of this discussion, let’s assume the Knicks match on Lin (highly likely) and the Bulls don't match on Asik.

    Anyway, my question to you guys… if we end up acquiring Dwight, has anything truly, substantially changed with the direction of the team in the past week? My answer is no.

    The talk seems to center around three guys – Lowry, Lee, and Dragic. Let’s look at them, case by case.


    Lowry: The belief that losing Lowry changes anything with Howard is silly. Folks, Lowry was NEVER going to be on a Rockets team with Howard. He was arguably the Rockets’ most valuable asset, so of course he’d have been in the package. The only difference now is that it’s the Toronto lottery pick instead. There’s a reason Orlando writers and fans referred to the Houston package as “Lowry/Martin + picks”.

    Lee: Has he gone anywhere? The Rockets didn’t renounce his Bird rights. He’s still very much in the picture, with some writers even mentioning a 32 mil proposal between Lee and the Rockets. If Howard comes, Lee has a good friend and dominant post player alongside a guaranteed starting role. I’d be shocked if he left, in this scenario.

    Dragic: This is the one true difference, but how substantial is it? I like Goran. He’s a nice guy and solid young point guard, and I wanted to keep him. But is the gap between Goran and the next tier of PGs (Aaron Brooks/Ramon Sessions) enough to substantially change the outlook of the team? Is Goran Dragic the caliber of player that could make a big difference in whether Dwight re-signs next year? I like him, but I don’t think Goran is that level guy.


    So let’s assume, for sake of argument, that the trade is something like Martin, Lamb, T. Jones, Patterson, draft picks (starting with Toronto’s) and cap fillers for Dwight and Richardson. This is your possible roster this year, if you re-sign Lee and pick from the Brooks tier of PGs:

    C: Howard/Asik
    PF: Scola/Motiejunas/White
    SF: Parsons/White/Richardson
    SG: Lee/Richardson
    PG: Brooks/Machado

    That team, to me, is a top 4 squad in the West. Really, it’s not that much different than the 2009 Rockets group (post-Tracy) that had a legit chance to win it all if not for Yao’s injury. And it’s hard for me to envision a team with a much better surrounding cast having the cap room to sign Dwight next summer.


    Could Dwight still leave? Of course. But it’s a risk we all knew last week, too, and most of us accepted. To me, the dropoff from Dragic to the Brooks tier isn’t worth completely changing the outlook on trading for Howard – especially considering the ease of which Morey has traditionally found diamond-in-the-rough PGs.
     
    #1 The Cat, Jul 6, 2012
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2012
  2. RV6

    RV6 Contributing Member

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    Don't think We're getting Asik.


    Either way, the focus is on getting Dwight. Stripped down or not. Just get him, at least that's the plan. Get him, then you have a season to sort things out. Plus, the rockets know Howard will leave if the team sucks by next summer. If the get him, they're going after 2013 free agents, so stripped down team may actually be better.
     
    #2 RV6, Jul 6, 2012
  3. conquistador#11

    conquistador#11 Member

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    alright I'm buying in. Let's say we sacrifice Jopac to the gods and we do somehow manage to get Howard. In 2013, why would Howard leave Houston? The Miami g*ngbang is full. The Knicks g*ngbang is full. Dallas? Dirk would be 35. Which team would he want to go to? ATL?

    I like your post. I has me believing at least for the time being.
     
    #3 conquistador#11, Jul 6, 2012
  4. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost be kind. be brave.
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    I'm sorry, I can't see that team being top 4 in the West.

    Every extra game we win helps, but it's really going to boil down to money.
     
    #4 DonnyMost, Jul 6, 2012
  5. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

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    Cat, good post. In your scenario the Rockets still have Marcus Morris on their roster. ;)
     
    #5 Deuce, Jul 6, 2012
  6. The Cat

    The Cat Contributing Member

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    Yup. A surrounding core of Parsons, Scola, Lee, Asik, pick two of our young forwards, Richardson, Brooks, etc. isn't a bad place to start. It probably won't win a championship in 2013, but it'll make some noise and be on the cusp, pending another move or two. Hard to envision any of the teams with 2013 cap room having a better situation.
     
    #6 The Cat, Jul 6, 2012
  7. smuduffy

    smuduffy Member

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    Fail...who is passing Howard the ball? I think it's a big downgrade at the point. To me the Lowry trade almost signifies that they aren't going for Howard, unless they get Lin which looks doubtful. I think if they thought they could have got Howard in here they would have given dragic his 4th year option.
     
    #7 smuduffy, Jul 6, 2012
  8. The Cat

    The Cat Contributing Member

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    Really? Outside of OKC, the Lakers and maybe SA, I don't see that team as an underdog to anyone. The 4/5 teams this year were Memphis and the Clippers, and I don't see either as better than that group. Maybe the Clippers if Griffin's post game develops, but that's starting to become a pretty big if.
     
    #8 The Cat, Jul 6, 2012
  9. Pete the Cheat

    Pete the Cheat Member

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    the irony in all this to me is that Martin was brought in to be an efficient scorer to pair with a dominant low post threat. but with the timing of the Yao injury we never go to see how well he would have meshed

    now 2 years later, he would have to be part of just about any package to acquire that dominant low post scorer (Howard)
     
    #9 Pete the Cheat, Jul 6, 2012
  10. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost be kind. be brave.
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    I'd probably put the Grizzlies and Clippers ahead of us. Definitely behind both of them if we end up dumping Scola (likely). Hell, Denver might be looking over our shoulder too.

    The offense of that unit would be downright ugly, and Brooks would have his lunch eaten on a regular basis by the plethora of good pointguards in the West.
     
    #10 DonnyMost, Jul 6, 2012
  11. TheFreak

    TheFreak Contributing Member

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    The same guy who was passing Yao the ball, in the proposal. It can't be any harder to get Howard the ball than it was getting Yao the ball. Dwight can jump and catch and stuff.
     
    #11 TheFreak, Jul 6, 2012
  12. The Cat

    The Cat Contributing Member

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    In my scenario, the same guy who passed the ball to Yao in 2009. :) Either way, I'm not too worried about Daryl Morey's ability to identify undervalued, starting-caliber point guards.

    Your point on Dragic was what I initially thought... but the more I think about it, it didn't make sense to overpay. The proposed roster is pretty good, but would need a lot of breaks to win a title. In reality, they'd need another move or two... and if Dragic's contract/PO would inhibit that, I'd rather take my chances with Morey finding the next undervalued PG for a more reasonable rate.
     
    #12 The Cat, Jul 6, 2012
  13. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    This was the team built around Yao that was meant to contend:

    Brooks/Lowry
    Martin/Lee
    Battier/Budinger
    Scola/Patterson
    Yao/Hayes

    I know many here believe it was foolish to bet on Yao returning to form, but that is not the point here. Rightly or wrong, that was the team that management believed was good enough to build upon.

    Now Yao may have had Howard's number 1-on-1, but against the rest of the league, Howard is still a clear upgrade. Parsons is at worst a wash compared with Battier. The rest is pretty much the same.

    I do not believe this is a championship team. However, it will win at least 50 games, and will be better than any of Howard's other alternatives. Not to mention the key- flexibility to bring in another star player next year like CP3 to actually contend.
     
    #13 CXbby, Jul 6, 2012
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2012
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  14. JonesDaddy

    JonesDaddy Contributing Member

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    Lowry became more valuable as a draft pick once Jameer got a new deal in Orlando.

    I feel like Chicago matching Asik is a coin flip right now, and honestly, I'm not sure which I prefer.

    I love that we signed D-Mo (because that most likely takes him out of trade discussions)

    If we can keep White & Parsons, then I'm ok with the rental.
    The Rockets are positioned very favorably cap wise.
    I think that the 3 year contract offers correspond with the length of the crap contracts Orlando is trying to get rid of.
    If Howard bolts, then it's only 2 years of **** contracts before a ton of free cap.

    Losing all of our PGs hurts, but Morey has essentially found all of them on the scrap heap and I'm sure he can continue those type of moves.
     
    #14 JonesDaddy, Jul 6, 2012
  15. Tenchi

    Tenchi Contributing Member

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    Guards are easier to find then centers. That's why centers are generally overpaid big time. Morey "found" Brooks and was able to trade Alston for Lowry, and then Brooks for Dragic. You could even say, even if it is a knock on him, that Morey picked up Lin off waivers. I'm pretty sure Morey can sacrifice a forward/future pick/cash for a usable PG.
     
    #15 Tenchi, Jul 6, 2012
  16. Prince

    Prince Member

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    I like the optimism. I like the roster.
     
    #16 Prince, Jul 6, 2012
  17. Rodman23

    Rodman23 .GIF

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    I wonder if chris paul would not resign with the clippers if we get dwight howard and then resigns with us this summer.Maybe we could get him to leave the clippers to play with Dwight.
     
    #17 Rodman23, Jul 6, 2012
  18. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    I feel like Morey is engineering 2 acquisitions, like the Nene/Gasol move. Morey isn't an idiot. He knows there is risk Howard leaves, so next years team must be a contender.

    The question is who is the second guy? Smith? Iggy? Rondo? Gasol ?

    Martin for Iggy?
    Scola/Toronto pick/Dallas pick/jones/Motie for Howard?
    Resign Lee?
    Sign Brooks/Bayless

    Brooks / Bayless
    Lee / Lamb
    Iggy / Parsons
    Patterson / Morris
    Howard / Asik

    That is a solid team IMHO, and you probably have money for CP3 next offseason. Really excited if we get him or if we don't. Atleast we are out of the middle.
     
    #18 larsv8, Jul 6, 2012
  19. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

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    larsv8, you would also still have Royce White on the Rockets.
     
    #19 Deuce, Jul 6, 2012
  20. Red Glares

    Red Glares Member

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    Is Houston still talking to Orlando? I haven't seen any info on the Rockets being in the mix in a couple of days.
     
    #20 Red Glares, Jul 6, 2012
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