I've heard so many people talking about the notorious rookie wall theory. Does it really exist to all rookies? What's the reason it exists? Yao's performance, based on pure stats (I can't see the game, and that's the only thing I can relate to), has gone down considerably in the last two games. Is it because of the rookie wall thing? Some wise man please stand up and help me out here.
Well if he is hitting one lets hope he catches a second wind. I noticed he was basically a non-factor in the Knicks game. I think teams are just adjusting to him now and he is going to need to adjust to what they are doing to him. He doesn't look tired, but he looks a bit lost out there sometimes. He had that really nice 10 games stretch, but I think other teams are catching up to him now and he has to change some stuff up.
Yao has tried alot different moves(ball fake, baby hook...) to score in recent games in stead of turn around jump shot. I think Rudy asked him to learn these moves and practice at court. He's not very comfortable yet, sort of like Shaq started to play baby hook 5 years ago. Apparently Yao's favorate is fade away jumper and he uses it at clutch time (like 4th quarter, yesterday's game). When Yao finally masters these offensive moves(maybe 20 games later), his PPG will rise dramatically.
Yao already HAD those moves. Those skills are ingrained in him. He did not learn them recently. The problem is the offense/chemistry. Teams have adjusted on how to defend Yao in the CURRENT offensive sets through sagging in on him with double teams and throwing a bunch of guys to outmuscle him but it is up to the coach and his team mates now to get him the ball in different sets. 1. Screen and roll to set up Yao for the open 12 foot jumper 2. Dump it into Yao BUT have guys keep on cutting so they cant double team (Moochie does this well). Yao is too good to stop. The best a team can do is to CONTAIN him. I have said this a ton of times but management needs to get a legitimate PF like Brian Grant to help out Yao... Eddie G can not hold his own against the Western Conferences PFs. If you notice during the game, the other teams front courts primary objective SEEMS to be to BODY UP Yao to prevent him from getting to the offensive glass. They would use multiple guys (Magloire, Campbell, Brown) or (Thomas, Doleac etc.). Often 2 or more guys at once. This SHOULD leave our PF a clear path for offensive boards but instead, we have Eddie G camping out at the 3 point line.. If we had Brian Grant, teams can not ONLY focus on Yao but will need to box out 2 guys now... The fact is, sooner or later, we WILL HAVE TO get a good PF to compete. I vote for teh sooner....
I agreed with you that our guards' cutting actually draw double team on Yao sometimes. Yes Yao has those moves already. But he can't use it as he wants in NBA, on those physical players. For example, his ball fake was way tooo slow at the beginning of the season and the defender got a hand on it easily. But now his elbow goes first in the fake, and moves alot more quickly. That's his progess. But there's still much space to improve. Baseline spin is one. Refs notice his right arm wrapping around the defendern and start giving his offensive foul. To avoid this, Yao has to make the spin quicker, work on his foot work and strength. I see he has the potential to make spin moves as quick as Hakeem. Look at WangZhiZhi's move right now and you'll believe it.
Rookie wall will hit him because he has played for too long. he needs a few months off not just because of the physical aspects, but mental as well.
One reason may be due to the slump of our perimeter shooters. Rice and Taylor had been horrible. Griffin is still very inconsistent. Mobley struggled until last night. When the shooters can't hit the open shots, the defense tends to sag in even more around Yao. The Knicks game was the epitome of the shooting problem. They were having open looks all night long. I am more concerned with Yao's rebounding rather than his scoring.
Thats pretty much the way they play in the NBA. Paul Silas, the Hornets coach, likes to play Magliore, the Hornets center one on one with Yao..and has been sucessful. Indiana did the same. Every team will throw any wrinkle they can to slow down the big guy..He seems to be doing fine adjusting. But the question in the last two games is: Why are Steve and Cat outrebounding Yao Ming. IMHO hes just a rookie and he will be somewhat inconsistent, he will improve as he learns..and he's a fast learner.
zzhiggens, "But the question in the last two games is: Why are Steve and Cat outrebounding Yao Ming." My take on it is that it is easy for defenses to focus on boxing out Yao because there is NO other front court threat. New Orleans had 2 or 3 big bodies going after the ball. We only have Yao Most of Steve and Mobleys boards are off of transition/fast break type rebounds ala Iverson. Those are great too but for us to contend for the playoffs, we will need Yao and another big body (hopefully Brian Grant) patrolling the paint and attacking the offensive glass. Rebounding is kinda like trying to sack a quarterback. Your chances are alot better if you have 2 or more guys breaking in the offensive line. If anything, it will open up holes for others. Right now, Yao needs another big man to complement him.. Olajuwon had it in Otis Thorpe, Sampson, Barkley etc... Yao needs it NOW! my 2 cents..
Personally, I am more concerned about his REBOUNDING over the last stretch of games. He was on a nice pace having double-doubles over like 6 games in December and over the last bunch of games his rebounding has gone WAY down....especially his offensive rebounding. Rebounding is part position and part hustle. I was wondering if because he is getting tired he is not hustling/fighting for rebounds as much, perhaps saving his energy for the offensive end of the floor. I haven't been able to see any of the last few games so I am only looking at stats. Anyone else know why his rebounding is really going south? Chris
Duce, I share your concern about the rebounding. Also of concern to me, have you noticed that he has not won a jump ball in quite a few games. Most have been "stolen" but still, he used to get them all. Regarding rebounds and scoring, I thik it goes to position on the floor. In spite of being 300 pounds, he can not establish himself in the key. I assume time will cure all. Does anybody remember Hakeem looked like 30 gmes into his pro career? I was there, but I have to assime those were a part of my ahem, "fun" youth.
The man is tired. Tired!!! The maximum amount of league games he played in CBA ranges in the twenties or so. I don't mind him hitting the "rookie wall"; I just hope he has a second wind because his next extended break will come after the playoffs in May or June (yes we can) baring unforseen injury (God forbid). Oh btw, he is now second (with 56%) in the NBA in FG accuracy behind Shaq (57%).
He probably hit the Rookie wall BEFORE he joined the rockets. Then found a second wind. He is probably at the start of the second rookie wall now. If I were Rudy, I will NOT start Yao until later in the season and limit his minutes to 10 to 20 minutes. We might lose 5 or 6 more games during the regular season, but we will also be the team nobody wants to face in the playoff.
Memo to tie22fighter; Rockets need Yao Ming (effective one I must add) to make the Playoffs - period. This is where the problem is - we need him but we wish we could limit his minutes so that he does not suffer any kind of fartigue induced injuries. We also need to give The Cat and Stevie more rest because of the nagging injuries the have been playing with all season long. An effective Yao does not have to score 20 and grab 10 boards; he just needs to be influencial on defense and help draw double teams/creat open shots on offense. Anything else he gives the Rockets is "pleasant supprise".
I think foul trouble has a lot to do with it. He had four fouls last night (taken out early in the first and third), and five against the Knicks. If you noticed, this limited his minutes the last two games to 27 and 32, instead of the 35-40 he had been getting. And, when you're in foul trouble, it's natural to be less aggressive around the basket so that you don't risk picking up cheap fouls to be taken out of the game. If it happens for an extended period, there may be an issue, but two games isn't enough.
This can not explain why he got these rebounds before KT was traded. The reason I think is that as KT is gone, teams do not feel there is a need to guard heavily any Rox PF anymore. Neither Taylor or EG gets much offensive rebounds any way. Remember KT hustles a lot and can get many offensive rebounds. So if I am the coach of opposing teams, I will tell my PF and center to spend 80% of energy on Yao, 20% on Rox's PF. Let's face it, even for Shaq this year, he is having a tougher time getting into the paint as teams just "ignore" Walker. Yao is not a Shaq-type of player and he won't get easy offensive rebounds from now on.
If you have a 250 pound 6'11" on your left, a 260 pound 6'10" on your right, and both of them push you hard and elbow you hard, I do not care you are 300 pound or 350 pound, you are not getting the rebound. Rox's PF needs to step up and makes the opposing team pay.
None of the above explain why Yao wasn't getting defensive rebounds during the last few games. Yao should've the position when he's defending, there's no excuse for that. He's simply not trying hard enough. Rebounding for a 7 ft 5 is all about hard working, physically he shouldn't be outmatched. Yes I know he's tired but then maybe he should just play less minutes, I'd rather have him playing 20-24 minutes and grab 10 rebounds, then trying to score and win the praise of the media. Yao said himself eariler this season, his job is to rebound and draw double team, not scoring. It's time to back that up.
I think he is more tired now compare to a couple of weeks ago. He seems to be less agressive going after the rebound and also less agressive on his move to the basket. He settle more for turn around jumper instead of making move to the basket. He is also getting less touch as he miss some shots and they don't go to him as much. So I think it's a combination of things (including tougher defense) but I expect him to rebopund and put up good numbers like he was before again. Even though his numbers is not as good as before but he still contribute to the team. So I wouldn't worried much about Yao.
