Can't wait! "There is a possibility that more than just tropical moisture flows into Texas starting later this week."
Maybe? I've been staring at this water vapor loop for 20 minutes. I still have no idea where this system that the models begin to develop in a couple days is. There is an upper level low in the extreme western gulf/mexico. I have no clue on this one. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html
This... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 530 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2011 THE NEXT THING IN THE OFFING IS POSSIBLY EXTRA OR ACTUALLY TROPICAL IN NATURE. IT DOES NOT MATTER TOO MUCH WHICH CATEGORY WE GIVE IT SINCE WIND SPEED IS WIND SPEED REGARDLESS. WE WILL BEGIN TO SHOW AN UPWARD BUMP IN WIND SPEEDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TOWARD THE WEEKEND. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL COLLIDE WITH A STALLED FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL ACTIVATE THE FRONT TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SLIGHTLY OVER THE MID-WEST THEN LIFTS LEAVING THE GULF LOW BEHIND AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER IT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO DRIFT AS STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN. THE MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME IS WIND SPEEDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINFALL...COASTAL FLOODING...AND TROPICAL WATERSPOUTS/TORNADIC SPINUPS.
yeah, well, as usual, early forecasts of rain for Austin this weekend are drying up quickly. Hope they are wrong, but my trick foot hasn't said nothing about no rain either.
Just watched my nephew cry for an hour over not getting to slip and slide on his birthday this weekend (in Austin) because his parents can't water the yard due to water restrictions. I'd say we're all crying just not as loud, this drought and heat wave is even starting to kill the old live oaks and pecan trees. Rain chances just went down to 10%. I wonder if they'd let us put a slipnslide up at Barton Springs and recirculate the water.
At my kids' school, a parent had a water main break near their house. They went to home depot, bought a pump, and watered her yard (and neighbors' yards) with the water that was pouring out of the broken water main.
Here is what the latest Canadian model thinks will happen. Click the fwd button. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2011083100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation It shows a rapidly deepening system come onshore around Galveston then dive southwest into Mexico as high pressure builds back in. Will this happen exactly like this? Probably not, but you never know. Bears watching.
The computer models must look like a squished spider right now. Here's the experts latest. 000 FXUS64 KHGX 310911 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 411 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2011 .DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WHETHER COLLEGE STATION REACHES AT LEAST 100 DEGREES FOR A MAXIMUM TEMP OR NOT FOR THE 58TH TIME THIS YEAR. THIS WILL TIE THE ALL TIME RECORD 58 DAYS IN 1917. KCLL REACHED 104 YESTERDAY...WILL FORECAST 103 TODAY AS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT. IF ANYTHING...MAY BE A TAD DRIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. TODAY WILL ALSO BE THE FIRST DAY IN A LONG WHILE THAT SE TX WILL NOT BE UNDER A HEAT ADVISORY. STILL THINK GIVEN TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RUN IN THE LOW 100S. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST...SO DO NOT SEE THE ADVISORY COMING BACK. ALL RIGHT...THE PART OF THE FORECAST EVERYONE WANTS TO KNOW ABOUT. IS IT GOING TO RAIN THIS WEEKEND OR NOT? IF YOU LIVE CLOSER TO THE COAST...YOU WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING AT LEAST A FEW DROPS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS VERY LOW TO SAY THE LEAST. FIRST...TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS NOT ALL THAT ORGANIZED AND LOOKS TO POSSIBLY MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HARD TO KNOW WHAT WILL REMAIN OF THE WAVE ONCE IT EMERGES INTO THE GULF SOMETIME TOMORROW. THE WAVE IS NOT ALL THAT WELL DEFINED BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME WESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW. SAID ALL OF THIS TO SAY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AND LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE IT CAN DEVELOP A CORE OF CONVECTION. SECOND...SINCE THE SYSTEM IS ILL-DEFINED...NONE OF THE MODELS REALLY HAVE A GOOD GRIP ON HOW TO INITIALIZE IT OR HOW TO HANDLE ITS EVOLUTION ONCE SOMETHING DOES FORM. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING AT LEAST A TROPICAL CYCLONE OF SOME SHAPE AND DEEPENING IT OFF THE LA COAST FRI. THINK IT WEAKENS THE RIDGE TOO MUCH WHICH WILL STRETCH FROM THE S ROCKIES TO THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS MINDS AS WELL BE POLAR OPPOSITES WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS. GFS HAS A BROAD WEAK LOW ALONG THE LA COAST AND MOVES IT EAST WITH TIME AND THEN UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK LOW FRI/SAT AND THEN DEEPENS IT OFF THE LOWER TX COAST SUN. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE W GULF THROUGH MID OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TURNING N INTO SE TX. NEITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS LOOK VERY REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. THE SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PROBABLY OFFER AT LEAST SOME GUIDANCE. THE SREF LIKE THE NAM DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE LA COAST BY FRI BUT IS MUCH WEAKER. SAME CAN BE SAID FOR THE GFS ENSEMBLE. SREF DOES LOOK TO MOVE THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE WEST SOME LIKE THE NAM AS WELL. THE MAIN TRICK WILL BE TO SEE IF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WILL BE ABLE TO PICK UP THE SYSTEM SUN/MON WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE S ROCKIES AND WEAKENING OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY OPEN UP ENOUGH FOR THE SYSTEM TO PULL INLAND SUN/MON. ADD TOO THAT THAT THE EXTENDED MODELS BRING A FRONT INTO THE REGION MON...THIS TOO MAY GIVE REASON FOR THE SYSTEM TO PUSH INLAND IN THE SUN/MON TIME FRAME. SO UNTIL THE MODELS COME IN TO MORE AGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS...BEST COURSE SEEMS TO BE TO GO WITH PARTS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT MAKE THE MOST PHYSICAL SENSE WHICH REALLY IS NOT MUCH. ALIGNED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND KEEPING IN MIND LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BUT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE N GULF FRI. SYSTEM LINGERS IN THE N/NW GULF THROUGH SUN WHEN STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTH BEGINS TO PULL IT INLAND SUN/MON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PUSHES INTO THE REGION MON/TUE WHICH CLEARS EVERYTHING OUT AND MAY ACTUALLY BRING TEMPS DOWN TO CLIMO NORMS WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPS FROM THIS PAST WEEK. AGAIN...WILL REALLY HAVE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM BECAUSE QUITE POSSIBLE FOR THERE TO BE RAINBANDS TO AFFECT THE AREA WHICH COULD BRING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. STRONG EAST WINDS THAT DEVELOP WOULD ALSO BUILD UP SEAS AND COASTAL FLOODING THREAT. WHILE SE TX COULD USE THE RAINFALL...STILL LOTS OF OTHER IMPACTS THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE DETAILS IN THE FORECAST WHICH UNFORTUNATELY ARE SKETCHY AT BEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTREME IMPACTS TO THE AREA...BEST TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS CLOSELY.
yeah, if there's no rain this weekend, i think we should be able to legally end the life of any weatherman who earlier in the week had the entire city's hopes up of wet weather this weekend.
Luckily, we have at least 1 good weatherman here in Austin. He's on Fox in the morning and has said all week that the models may say rain is possible but that we shouldn't count on getting a drop in Central Texas. It's depressing but at least we aren't looking up and waiting.
