DD's Rocket talk - The decision 2011

I'm all for trading B.Miller but I really don't think anybody would want him for the amount we're paying him...

 

First, an analogy:

Player ratings 1-10. Lebron being a 10.

Where we are at:
We have a team full of 6's & 7's, at least as they have been currently playing. A few, may have the potential to be a bit more (twill, Pat, Hill?)

It has been demonstrated time and again that a team constructed of lets say:

10-9-8-4-4 is usually going to beat a team of say 7-7-7-6-6 most of the time.

So we come to the obvious. How do we turn those 6's and 7's into 9's and 10's?

This is Morey's mission. This is what needs to happen for us to leap into the realm of title contender. The problem is, this is what every other team in the league is trying to do also. So every time these 8's and above become available, every basketball brain trust out there starts assembling what they are willing to give up, offer it, and hope the opposing team takes the bait. This is so straightforward and simple that you will seldom succeed this way. So, you have to get clever, resourceful and lucky to get this done. No one gives up a 8 for 3-6's. Not in obvious fashion anyway.

Fortunately for some, unfortunately for others, the NBA is NOT a level playing field. Its becomes a game of taking advantage of the uneven field and seeing clearly where you have the higher ground, but at the same time, giving the guy at a disadvantage something they want.

Firstly, know what your advantage is. In the Rockets case, its the ability to move several talents without roster depletion. Not only this, buts its talent without those blackhole contracts that make the other team cringe at the thought of taking what you have.

Then, you need to know what the other teams disadvantages are. And which ones could potentially gain from what we are offering. This becomes very complex when you bring a 3rd or 4th team into the equation. But in the end, player movement is only going to happen when all the partners involved see themselves gaining something. And sometimes that can happen in the form of potential (draft picks) rather then something immediate. Same said for cap space. It gives a team future hope that they can sign someone helpful next year, or the next.

So we have a league whereby every team is trying to get better. But some are willing to give up immediate help for future help. Every team knows this. Every teams needs are thoroughly analyzed by every other. When you know what your opponent is trying to do, it has the unfortunate consequence of every other team trying to rape you to accomplish it. Like in chess, if you can see what your opponents is up to, you can make the price too steep for him to succeed at it (if your competent enough to out flank him).

Now to the Rockets and DD's post. He points out how the Rockets are kinda stuck in the middle. Are they rebuilding? Are they trying to add big pieces? Are they buyers or sellers? No one seems to be sure. THAT could be a HUGE advantage. If WE dont know, chances are, other teams dont either. No one out there (especially in our division, somewhat so in the conference) wants the Rockets to be a problem for them later. The fact that our path isnt clear, makes it a lot harder for them to know how much they could be helping us through a trade. It makes it a bit more likely we could pull a fast one on somebody, and them not know it till its too late. I dont know if DM engineered this by design, or through accumulating talent, it just turned out this way. But what looks on the surface like a bunch of parts that dont fit, could be a royal flush in the making. The trick is going to be (if the opportunity presents itself) to look at the entire playing field and move pieces around in such a manner whereby no one move seems too lopsided in our favor, but the cumulative effect gets us the hand we want.

Whats pivotal is the opportunity. But in addition, taking the correct ones based not only on individual assessment, but the overall scheme. The more player movement that takes place, the greater our potential to work multiple pieces. The Rockets greatest advantage is having multiple pieces that are movable. The more complicated it gets, the better it is for us.

 

Thank you for saving us time and bandwidth from having to read 500 of your posts with that video, DaDarkOne.

All I hear is "blah blah blah" of stuff I've seen on the court and I already know.

 

keep up the good analysis

 

Just watched the video, and it was pretty good, interesting points of view.I agree on the team not having a direction, with the team basically contsructed for an inside presence in Yao who went down again.Some meaningful trade(s) are needed;however trading Battier,Scola, and Miller(regardles of what people think about him)leaves the team without veterans to help out with the young guys, who really do need them(just look at SacTown with all that talent ,and no vets).I think the team need to hold on to Battier,and the ChuckWaggon as part of the coaching staff ,only on the floor with the young ones.

 

I agree. The value or productivity of player is augmented by the players, the system they play in, and coach around him, surely.

To know which players could blossom in a different role, different style, or different environment would require intimate knowledge of that player. I dont have that kind of player knowledge.

But I would say that their are usually signs. That is, players that show moments or flashes of high ability are the ones to keep an eye on.

Along these lines, I think getting twill was a good gamble. Hill, despite last night (and many others), seems like the kind of player that could rise to a fairly high level. Its a matter of throwing different situations/roles at him to find which one fits his makeup.

As far as what should the Rockets do, depends on what becomes available. Their is more than one path to success. If you look at the Rockets as they currently are, it would seem a rim protector is paramount. But if we ship 3 or 4 players off, then our need may change. Certainly, some things you want no matter what personal you have. But concentrating too fiercely on one thing can lure us into tunnel vision. Miami is weaker than us at the 5, but they overcome it with strengths in other areas. If we were basically keeping the team as is, and looking to add just one player, things would be much more simple.

In general though, Id like to see this:

1) Focus on 2-way players and players who can play multiple positions. When you dont quite know where your going, flexibility is a huge asset.

2) While one dimensional players are useful, we have a few too many of them. I say, get what we can for a few of them. I agree with your assessment that having some room at the end of the bench is a plus. Since shipping off players for other players (on a 1-1 basis) doesnt address this. Get some picks where possible.

3) But most of all, keep poised to see how the Melo-drama plays out. I believe that several other player movements will be on hold till this one plays out. Once it does, then the flood gates will open and opportunities will arise.

 

I didn't finish watching the vid, cause i agreed with everything you were saying..

+1 mate,

i'd make the scene a little more professional, i think fans would subscribe more.. if it didn't seem so "homemade"

 

A couple things I don't agree with:

1. Martin is not a "net 0" on the court. And that is the problem with only using your eyes, it is a guess. We can actually figure out exactly what he is, And it is somewhere around a +2 to +3 depending on if you look at adjusted +/- or on/off court measurements. Drawing fouls does not bog down an offense. In fact it is probably the second highest % shot in basketball behind a wide open dunk. One of his strengths is actually his decisiveness with the ball, whether to shoot, attack, or swing, he generally does it immediately. What would bog an offense down would be over dribbling and refusing to swing the ball when doubled. Only one player does that on the team consistently. You also overstate his lack of defense.

With all that said, your conclusion is not too far off base. I would look to deal anyone for an upgrade, whether it is immediate or future(picks). The prime candidates are Martin and Scola. Besides their age, what makes them even more expendable is they have young, cheap, and most importantly GOOD backups ready to step in with Courtney Lee and Patterson. While Martin is clearly the better overall player, Lee is more well rounded both on offense(he can dribble) and defense. With costs considered, I would probably take Lee if I had to choose.

2. We actually do have a clear direction. Your confusion stems from the fact that the direction is not as black and white as the options you are considering. Our direction is: Win now, hang on for the playoffs, meanwhile try to showcase players(really only one) before the trade deadline. The source of your confusion is why aren't we playing Jefferies if we are trying to win now. Because we are desperately trying to pawn off Jordan Hill for anything worthwhile. Before the deadline: don't be surprised to see Hill maintain his minutes even when everyone is back healthy, to the detriment of Patterson's minutes most likely. After the deadline: if he is not traded, don't be surprised if he starts racking up the DNP-CDs.

With that said, those were really the only two things I thought you were really off on. In general your videos are much more level-headed compared to your posts. This is because you are actually forced to think out and articulate your positions, as opposed to just grabbing a keyboard and type on any emotional whim otherwise. Usually that is why so many arguments end badly, as you are forced to reinforce/regurgitate positions born of emotional whim- likely due to ego or good old fashion stubbornness- until they are utterly stricken down with irrefutable proof.

Anyways, there's my 2 cents as Dr. Phil and an attempted compliment.

 

I have always envisioned Scola as being that guy who just bleeping kills you in the championship series. The guys who takes all sorts of crazy shots and never misses when it counts. I want to see him do that for us in the finals.

I don't want to deal him at all and would rather move other parts and improve our interior D at C. It's much easier to find a defensive C than it is to find a Scola.

 

Lets Trade Kevin Martin and Luis Scola now after this video.
I hope something good goes on near the deadline.

 

And Martin does not bog down an offense at all. Neither does Melo in fact. Melo does need the ball, but he attacks immediately once he gets it. This is a fact. In no way whatsoever is Melo comparable to TMac in terms of needing the ball in his hand and stopping the flow of the offense.

 

I liked the first 14 minutes...but then you yelled "SEE YA!" :grin:

But really though, that was a great breakdown of the Rockets' situation. Nice job!

 

I dont know about others, but I think its common to truncate ones thoughts on a blog. Sure, that waters down the idea a bit, but I wouldnt say that means its emotionally whimsical.

 

"Oh, we got something here. This isn't so bad... In reality, it is that bad. And that's the kind of move I'm hoping Morey can pull off."

LOL.

As always, enjoyed it, DD.

I couldn't agree more with your point on Courtney Lee, a very solid 2-way player. He's a strong on-ball defender, and is versatile on the offensive end of the floor, as he has proven that he can consistently knock down the 3-ball in the flow of the offense or take his man off the bounce and finish at the rim.

 

At this point, I'm thinking Bud, as much as I like him needs to go, along with Hill. At the end of last season, I thought those two would really be key this season but a few months in and I see virtually no improvement. As for Brooks, Martin, and Lowry, one of them probably should be traded but I don't see Lowry or Kmart going anywhere. It's hard to say who should go lately since almost everyone has started contributing is some way due to injuries but I think Scola, Lowry, Martin, and Chuck are safe. Good discussion DD.

 

I don't understand why we need Sean Williams. This guy couldn't get any play time in the pissed poor Nets team last season. He was bashed by the Nets' fans as having absolutely nothing between his ears. All he got is mad athleticism which did not bode well for his team.

 

As always well done DD!

Can't agree more about flipping Scola and or Martin now. Preferably Martin 1st or at the same the time, but that's just me. Would love to do it as well to move up in the draft! Something in the top 4 would be nice.


good stuff!

 

DD you look like my favorite childhood cartoon character louie anderson from life with louie! :grin: