I highly doubt the CCP would become stronger than ever if there was a trade war otherwise they would've taken that route already. Do you really think that all of those Chinese who have now tasted a lifestyle approaching the first world will just be fine going back to living as their parents did in the 1970's?
Only if this was due to external force. CCP would run their media 24 hours/day claiming US imperialism trying to destroy the new China. And for the first time in 30 years, most Chinese would buy into that. By the way, their life will be closer to the 90s than 70s should a trade war occur.
Folks, US ain't going to start trade war w/ China on freaking rare earth. Are you kidding me? Hang up the silly talk already. :grin:
Keep in mind you will be seeing the drumbeat of US propaganda and paranoia about the Menace from the East drummed up too in the US. In both countries I doubt that will do much to keep public opinion together once real economic hardship kicks in. To the credit of the PRC yes the Chinese will hold out longer but not much longer. The current generation of Chinese like their US counterparts have grown up with fastfood and Xboxs you can exhort them all you want with tales of the Long March and Shanghai's defense against the Japanese but in the absence of actual shooting I doubt most Chinese will put up with hardship over a protracted trade war.
I totally agree and neither is the PRC going to start a trade war either. They will continue to act to keep things favorable in their own interests but I doubt they would try something like an OPEC like embargo over rare earth minerals.
Rare earth is exhaustible natural resource, so there might have been the reason why the rest of the world want China to dig it in China first. This thing just feeds well to the China monster talk come the election time. I don't think DOD is as nervous as SWT 4 2 and some other folks here. I doubt Krugman is that nervous either, knowing he did some awesome work on strategic industry, so knows this kind of stuff better than anybody else.
Pffffffft. If I was the CCP, I would be asking who the f is this Paul Krugman dude. That dude has no credibility to talk to the CCP. Or to me either. Where was he when the US started building a super bubble in its property markets? Where was he when the US financial system took on trillions (if not a quadrillion) of bad, toxic derivative debt? Where was he when well known US companies and individuals were building Ponzi schemes left right and centre? Where was he when Americans stupidly over-leveraged themselves to the hilt and tried to sustain themselves on only a 1% savings rate? I mean, with all the supposedly top-notch education in the world in the US, all those Ivy League universities, all those highly paid advisors and academics, very very VERY few people were able to see that the US was driving its economy DIRECTLY into an iceberg. The people who were able to foresee the Great Financial Crisis coming are the only people who hold any credibility. The rest of them, like Paul Krugman, carry no weight the world's books. That's why when he whines and harps, the CCP just laughs and gets back to focusing on the most important thing... the progression and prosperity of their own country and their own people. They (the CCP) know that the best way to beat America in a "war" is to do nothing. They will wait and let America make its own mistakes and scuttle its own ship. Which is what the American politicians are very adept at doing now. BTW, for all those folks pushing for a trade war... it is very easy to scream war war war when you are sitting on a high perch and on the internet. Once a trade war actually happens, and unforeseen ramifications start occurring, you guys might start crying for things to go back to normal, LOL!
China and US are in no real position to wage a real trade war. Krugman is saber rattling because both parties are treading relatively lightly given the stakes.
How about people treat each other with more respect and understanding instead. Just because China's got some rare earth doesn't mean it's a threat to the US.
ummm- a guy who won a nobel prize for groundbreaking research on international trade? Just guessing.... Where was he? Umm, writing columns and speaking about this very same thing, perhaps? http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/02/opinion/dubya-s-double-dip.html http://www.nytimes.com/2003/06/20/opinion/still-blowing-bubbles.html?ref=paulkrugman http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/20/opinion/questions-of-interest.html?pagewanted=2 Great quote in this one: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/27/opinion/27krugman.html?ref=paulkrugman HOnestly, how anybody can make the argument that Krugman, who, on a weekly basis, attacked Greenspan in print for all the world to see from 2000-2008, just sat idly by without complaining is dumbfounding. So I guess you're giving us a good indication how much weight we can give your credibility as well, no?
The current situation is better for China than the U.S. - there in lies the inequality. China has more to gain with the status quo, and the U.S. has more to lose. it's not great for u.s. business but i think it wouldn't be a long war. Just enough to get China to abide by WTO rules and play fair in the international markets. Ultimately, we can't compete with China from a manufacturing standpoint because of labor costs and environmental regulations, but we can give our exporters a fighting chance.
Looks like China is giving the U.S. the middle finger on rare earths as well. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/20/b...l=1&adxnnlx=1287514967-Qlb4N3YirzuUrLdwvL1ljg
Wang has a good argument in front WTO panel if China gets sued for it. Looks like the rest of the world wanted China to do the dirty work so they can reap the benefits, and China happily did it. It's China's turn to get it back. Reminds of those nannies came out to the media to extort money from their former celebrity masters. :grin:
And BTW, someone already mentioned here, West can't have both ways, human rights conditions, clean environment on one end and cheap Chinese imports on the other , on China. You have to pick one to stick with. Otherwise, it just look bad. It's not clear to me who's bullying whom.
I don't think the world really benefits all that much for cheap goods you buy at Walmart. It may be help keep prices in check and boost our standard of living a bit, but it also is a big drag on the economy in a big way. The point is that it's not sustainable, with all that American cash flowing into Chinese coffers, the exchange rate should be moving to balance that out. But that's not happening. Still, China has more than a fist full of dollars and at somepoint is going to have to do something with them.
