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Open letter to Daryl Morey - One more way to get a statistical advantage

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by trugoy, Nov 18, 2009.

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  1. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    I notice all the hate for joey crawford tonight, but I think that actually once you statistically analyse the referees, there is a significant advantage to be had to the team that does this in the right way.

    Amongst the referees there is a group of "senior" refs that fancy themselves "game managers", Joey crawford is one of them, they are different from normal refs in that they don't just call it as they see it but will try to "manage the game", symptoms of which there is a clear example tonight.

    e.g. 4th quarter, Amare gets the ball and crashes into Scola to make the layup, scola flops and draws an offensive foul from ref(not crawford), next trip down the court, scola gets the rebound and gets called for the loose ball foul for the rebound by joey. This is a clear case of the makeup call. Joey obviously was not happy about the scola flop and decided to punish scola for it. Now did the subsequent whistles for Amare have anything to do with this scola incident? I don't know but I suspect with enough statistical analysis we can find out which refs are most influenced by this sort of thing.

    Other things refs do to "manage the game"

    1. The half foul - where there is a foul on the shot but not enough to call the foul before seeing if the shot goes in or not, if the shot goes in, no foul is called, if it misses the foul is called.

    2. The superstar bailout, where a superstar either loses the ball or falls over and the foul would not normally be called but since it's either a turnover for the superstar or a foul on a no name player, the ref makes the decision to bail out the superstar.

    I think this would be incredible information for the coach and especially the team. If you could find out which refs are most likely to do makeup calls, after every bad call, you just force your way to the basket on the side which is closest to your target referee and very high chance of getting a makeup call.

    e.g. in tonights game after the landry foul on nash that was obviously a superstar bailout call, if someone just put their head down and runs into nash, 90% chance that a makeup call happens.

    I think to a certain extent a lot of superstars already recognise this and do this but if you could do statistics and make it part of your gameplan it would be a huge advanage.
     
    #1 trugoy, Nov 18, 2009
    2 people like this.
  2. Kracka0476

    Kracka0476 Member

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    Hey Morey how about this stat teams that have one a ring without an All-Star? 0

    Hurry up and trade Tmac already and get us some more talent.
     
    #2 Kracka0476, Nov 18, 2009
  3. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    Because 29 other NBA teams are all anxiously waiting to trade FOR McGrady all the while giving us an All-Star in return.
     
    #3 steddinotayto, Nov 18, 2009
  4. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    number of teams to win a ship in the last 20 years w/o a superstar = 1, and chauncey was real good that year.
     
    #4 Air Langhi, Nov 18, 2009
  5. Depressio

    Depressio Contributing Member

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    This is what people don't understand. They fantasize about getting Chris Bosh but fail to realize that Toronto isn't dealing him (for example). Or even Kevin Martin, without realizing that the Kings may not want McGrady.

    You can't blame Daryl Morey for having a pseudo-productive team while $40 million in superstars sit on the bench in suits while injured. In fact, you can commend up thoroughly if a team of no All-Stars with a $40 million hole in the line-up actually makes the playoffs.

    Saying "HEY DARYL WE NEED SUPERSTARS TO WIN AND YOU SUCK FOR NOT HAVING ANY" is absolute stupidity.
     
    #5 Depressio, Nov 18, 2009
  6. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    I think it's spelt:

    H3y D4rRiL (etc)

    Completely agree - I'm sure Morey would LOVE to have an All-star on the team (technically he has 2 anyway, just so happens they're both injured) - but what's the man supposed to do? Make one appear?

    I hope we trade Ming for Bosh this summer!
     
    #6 DrNuegebauer, Nov 18, 2009
  7. bugerking3

    bugerking3 Member

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    ideas.rocketball.com

    in case your idea is groundbreaking, let's keep the secrets within the rockets family, k? don't want any maverick, jazz, or laker trollers taking our awesomeness.
     
    #7 bugerking3, Nov 18, 2009
  8. intergalactic

    intergalactic Contributing Member

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    Refs do have tendencies but it's very dangerous for a team to analyze this stuff formally. 1. If a ref finds out you're "handling" him this way he will probably get angry, 2. It has a whiff of the "NBA reffing is fixed" vibe that gets David Stern really angry.
     
    #8 intergalactic, Nov 18, 2009
  9. dachuda86

    dachuda86 Member

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    I think Joey is sent in to absolutely demolish during the most high-stakes series to help the NBA. Why? Because he's always doing it.
     
    #9 dachuda86, Nov 18, 2009
  10. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    That would be great if someone who wrote for the Chronicle actually had the stones to write such a column.

    ;)

    DD
     
    #10 DaDakota, Nov 18, 2009
  11. ty185

    ty185 Member

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    Remember Morey talked about "they actually don't mind having Joey as the referee when they are the visiting team" during the Laker series?

    I think tracking and analysing referee impacts on the game is something rox already does, an does well probably. :)
     
    #11 ty185, Nov 18, 2009
  12. dachuda86

    dachuda86 Member

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    Joey is a company man, if we know it, they definitely know it.
     
    #12 dachuda86, Nov 18, 2009
  13. Fyreball

    Fyreball Contributing Member

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    The number of posts that Kracka0476 has made that make me glad I don't usually post in the GARM? WON
     
    #13 Fyreball, Nov 18, 2009
  14. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    Truth, you probably couldn't actually tell the players, or the whole thing could blow open.

    You prolly just do the stats and give them to adelman, and adelman can "call a play" from the sideline when there's good opportunities.
     
    #14 trugoy, Nov 18, 2009
  15. freemaniam

    freemaniam 我是自由人

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    I believe a number of Head Coaches or NBA teams in the league have certain moves to counter make-up calls. I am pretty sure Spurs has managed this to its best extent.

    You can often see Coach Pop called a timeout immediately after a questionable whistle that benefit their team or take the player out of the game. Sometime their subsequent plays may not involved that player much, but those are difficult to observe.
     
    #15 freemaniam, Nov 18, 2009
  16. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    Wow, any video of this sort of thing? Maybe that's part of the reason that Joey Crawford hates Duncan/Spurs...

    I think we are only at the tip of the iceberg of what can be done to manipulate the refs.

    I am sure that certain refs have particular pet hates, like flopping or travelling, etc... and you can design plays that are either away or towards those refs, etc....
     
    #16 trugoy, Nov 18, 2009
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