it has to be mis-spelled. should be "Ba". as "Che Jia Ba" makes sense. "Che" maybe the family name, "Jia" is family/clan, "Ba" is dam. it's pretty standard name in that nature.
thank all help for chines I am a chinese and a rox fan I have donate my money to the region where earthquake happened , I hope american friend can help my hometown thank you~
Modern Chinese history is chapters of sad stories. Just want to share this chinese article with my fellow Chinese and u know it is very sad when the Sichuan Earthquake Observatory had successes in earthquake forecast but the observatory has abandoned its successful way.
don't believe emotional, uninformed journalist's report on this topic. According to the USA Geological Site, here's their FAQ towards earthquake forecasts: Q: Can you predict earthquakes? A: No. Neither the USGS nor Caltech nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. They do not know how, and they do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future. However based on scientific data, probabilities can be calculated for potential future earthquakes. For example, scientists estimate that over the next 30 years the probability of a major EQ occurring in the San Francisco Bay area is 67% and 60% in Southern California. The USGS focuses their efforts on the long-term mitigation of earthquake hazards by helping to improve the safety of structures, rather than by trying to accomplish short-term predictions. Currently, there's no successful short-term earth quake predictions done by the US scientists; Japan, being frequently hit be earthquakes year round, has never had a successful short term prediction; China has the ONLY record of successful short-term prediction in 1976, when it predicted a magnitude 6 earth quake in HaiCheng. -- HOWEVER, the theory used for that prediction has then been proved mistaken and the only successful prediction in human history (unfortunately) has been rendered pure luck...
As for Mr. Geng's claim, if you dig a little deeper, there are enough resources online to outline the flaw in his theory and why it's simply impossible to make short-term earthquake predictions at the moment. Simply put, anyone who finds a way to reasonably predict an earthquake in short term, is almost a garantee to win the Nobel Peace Prize if not the physics prize. contributions of this scale is not being overlooked. not by the way that the journalist is claiming anyway.
So, your basic thinking is Japan and US cant do it, so it wont happen in China. I think you forget something. Chinese understands their land well. There are thousands of years of records of weather, drought, and earthquake that can be studied. The correlation between drought and earthquake in China is documented in Chinese history books. Nothing new here! The question is how to make the short term earthquake prediction more accurate. I feel funny when you say nobody can predict earthquake but they can prove the ONLY (I dont think that's the ONLY one, they actually had 4 right predictions) right earthquake prediction in human history is based on a wrong theory. Show me the proof. Also, please remember, the theory may only apply to China geology because that's based on it's drought and earthquake data.
btw, there is no theory there. That's an observation that's recorded in Chinese history books. Mr. Geng (耿) used a statistical approach to study the correlation between drought and earthquake that ocurred in China.
Great. so... we are talking about predicting earth quakes without a theory eh? Doublebogey, I have heard enough of the similar arguments and believes that this arguments belongs to another thread -- maybe a chinese bbs would be more appropriate. if you want to drag the "chinese history" and "chinese knows about chinese geography" argument into it, there definately involves way too many background materials the the majority of Clutchfans will not be interested in and not appropriate for GARM. Again, just to clarify my stance: 1. ALL credible earthquake monitoring sources (including US, Japan, China, and wherever you would like to get a quote on) maintains that short term earth quake predictions are impossible currently. If you find ANY credible source believe otherwise, I would be interested to know. 2. Mr. Geng's research certainly could have shown a corelation between drought and earthquake probabilities. But first, even him admits, this is a corelation, not a causal-effect relation. Secondly, his research belongs to the intermediate earthquake forecasts, where scientists all over the world have been making progress on. -- In fact, long term and intermediate forecastes are part of USGC's forcuses are well. HOWEVER, no short-term causal-effect relationship for earth quakes has been established yet. not in the states, not in China, not in anywhere around the world. I stand corrected on this fact. again, I fully expect you to disagree on my stance as I have learned in recent days that the two camps on this issue is so far apart that once one makes up the mind, it's almost impossible to change it. However, if you really want to discuss the validity of short-term earth quake predictions IN CHINA, I suggest you to name a more appropriate place so we can move our relevant discussions there, instead of bombarding GARM with irrelevant informations. I have expressed my feeling in the other hangout thread before, but let me say it again as that's what relevant to GARM: No matter whether it is the SARS crisis, or Katrina, or the Snowstorm earlier this year, or the earthquakes, Yao has always been one of the leaders in humanitarian aids. I couldn't be more proud of Yao being a houston rockets. My hats off for him. peace
i have a masters degree in statistics. tell me how the hell is it possible to predict an earthquake using a statistical approach? sure, you can probably find some sort of correlation between earthquakes with draughts and other stuff, but heck, you can probably find relationships between earthquakes and tons of other crap that has no relationship whatsoever. it's just math and equations. if there is NO causal relationship, then it's BS.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/15/world/asia/15morgue.html?hp http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2008/05/15/world/0515-CHINA_index.html
