A "net possessions created" stat (applied to Rockets)

What I wanted to do was isolate a particular type of contribution. That McGrady scores poorly by this metric doesn't mean he's a bad player overall. If you want to win, it's not enough to just get your team the ball. You need to efficiently use those possessions. And without McGrady and Yao, we would be horrible at generating points from the possessions.

I just wanted to highlight some things players can do that often get overlooked in the stats. McGrady and Yao get plenty of praise already for what they do.

At the same time, I recognize the issue with this measurement. A player can essentially stand around and do nothing, and rate well above average. Some might even argue that's what Battier does (which goes back to the limitation of box score stats in capturing what a player really does).

I could eliminate blocked shots and missed field goal attempts from the metric and just focus on rebounding, steals, and turnovers.

 

After considering your feedback, I decided to change the formula. I want to focus on net possession creation, and not how those possessions are used to generate points. Therefore, I decided to eliminate blocked shots and missed field goals from the equation. Blocking shots impacts how the opposing team uses possessions, but not directly on creating a possession for your team. Chuck might be penalized a bit by this exclusion, actually, because a lot of what gets recorded as a "blocked shot" for him are really strip moves he does on players he's guarding in the lane. They could just as easily be recorded as a steal. Oh well.

This is the modified formula:

net_poss_created = 0.7*oreb + 0.3*dreb + stl - tov

Here are the league leaders (minimum 80 minutes played):

Code:

        [B]Player              Team      Min      PC/40Min[/B]
1       hayes,chuck         hou       190       7.2
2       skinner,brian       pho       90        7.1
3       evans,reggie        phi       175       6.5
4       bynum,andrew        lal       144       6.5
5       marion,shawn        pho       297       6.5
6       smith,joe           chi       118       6.3
7       okafor,emeka        cha       235       6.1
8       camby,marcus        den       272       5.9
9       hollins,ryan        cha       88        5.7
10      collison,nick       sea       217       5.7
11      foster,jeff         ind       164       5.5
12      haywood,brendan     was       175       5.5
13      dudley,jared        cha       86        4.8
14      jefferson,al        min       184       4.7
15      ilgauskas,zydrun    cle       268       4.7
16      garnett,kevin       bos       238       4.7
17      smith,jason         phi       106       4.3
18      millsap,paul        uta       161       4.2
19      randolph,zach       nyk       146       4.2
20      najera,eduardo      den       178       4.1

And here are the stats for the Rockets:

Code:

        [B]Player              Team      Min      PC/40min[/B]
1       hayes,chuck         hou       190       7.2
2       mutombo,dikembe     hou       31        4.8
3       wells,bonzi         hou       177       3.5
4       scola,luis          hou       137       2.7
5       battier,shane       hou       288       2.0
6       ming,yao            hou       302       1.4
7       james,mike          hou       193       1.2
8       mcgrady,tracy       hou       302       0.8
9       alston,rafer        hou       207       0.7
10      head,luther         hou       92        0.3

Now Chuck is leading the league. Looks good to me.

BTW, for those who are curious, here were the league leaders last year:

Code:

        [B]Player              Team      Min       PC/40min[/B]
1       foster,jeff         ind       1742      6.3
2       mutombo,dikembe     hou       1291      6.1
3       hayes,chuck         hou       1716      5.7
4       wallace,ben         chi       2699      5.6
5       evans,reggie        den       1129      5.2
6       varejao,anderson    cle       1931      5.2
7       balkman,renaldo     nyk       1065      5.1
8       lee,david           nyk       1729      5.0
9       chandler,tyson      nor       2510      4.9
10      roberts,lawrence    mem       974       4.9
11      diop,desagana       dal       1473      4.7
12      okafor,emeka        cha       2330      4.7
13      gooden,drew         cle       2239      4.7
14      millsap,paul        uta       1473      4.7
15      biedrins,andris     gsw       2378      4.7
16      mcdyess,antonio     det       1727      4.7
17      camby,marcus        den       2371      4.6
18      marion,shawn        pho       3007      4.6
19      mohammed,nazr       det       776       4.6
20      thomas,kurt         pho       1213      4.5

 

Here's my rationale, but it's open to debate. There's a roughly 30% chance a team will grab the offensive rebound on their miss. So, on a given miss, when a player gets the defensive board, he's overcome that 30% probability to help secure the possession for his team. And I use a similar rationale for offensive rebounding (overcome the 70% probability of the opposing team getting the defensive board).

 

Agree. I couldn't think of another way to succinctly describe it, though. Any suggestions?