predict minutes

I see T-Mac playing a LOT less MPG than in previous years...

He averages just under 35 MPG for his career, but with a precedence in depth, I can see him dropping to 30-32 MPG in the regular season in order to save up for the playoffs.

 

Bonzi

 

Yao (34) Butler (14)
Scola (28) Hayes or new PF (20)
Battier (30) Wells (18)
T-Mac (34) Francis (10)
James (28) Francis (10) Brooks (10)

I think Alston & Head are traded for a PF. Not sure we sign Deke or Hayes.

 

Here's a possible 9-man rotation, assuming we don't make another significant trade for a rotation player:

PG - Francis,24 - James,24
SG - McGrady,30 - Wells,10 - Francis,8
SF - Battier,28 - Wells,15 - McGrady,5
PF - Scola,28 - Hayes,15 - Battier,5
C - Yao,34 - Butler,12 - Hayes,2

Total:
McGrady: 35 mpg
Yao: 34 mpg
Battier: 33 mpg
Francis: 32 mpg
Scola: 28 mpg
Wells: 25 mpg
James: 24 mpg
Hayes: 17 mpg
Butler: 12 mpg

 

No way Butler plays more than 6 min

 

I think McGrady and Battier's minutes will go down. I say 30-32 minutes for Mac and 28-30 for Battier. Bonzi is going to get his minutes under Adleman and I think that will come at the expense of Battier.

 

So you are projecting 11 minutes without Scola or Hayes, making it a small lineup for that span? That seems like a lot. I'd give more minutes to Scola and Hayes- like 25/20.

I would give more of Francis' minutes to James and Bonzi. Francis- 20 minutes. Bonzi- 24 minutes. James- 29 minutes.

I also dont see Francis playing 32. More like 20.

mac 36
yao 34
scola25
hayes20
battier36
francis-20
Bonzi- 24
james-29
yaos backup...butler or mutumbo 14

 

Anyone number guru here has the minutes distribution of the Kings under Adelman?

 

Stevie needs to play at least 30 mpg, he won't find his rhythm with less. Adelman has to find 20mpg for Bonzi for the same reason along with Bonzi not being a happy camper if he gets any less. I think Adelman has to give Brooks some burn early to see what he can contribute. Snyder, Head, Alston and Novak are the odd men out, makes sense to package one or more in a deal to unclog this logjam of players.

 

I think the best way to figure this is to separate the 4/5 positions from the 1/2/3, because I don't think Shane will be that much PF at all, especially if we trade Alston for another PF.

5: Yao: (34) averaged 33.9 minutes last year, you could put (33) but it doesn't matter
Backups: Either Dikembe, Butler, or Foster (if we get him from Indiana) will make up the remaining 14

4: Scola: (24) Hayes (20) Battier (4) (if we go small)

Now where it gets confusing:

3: Shane: (28) - you have to think that his minutes will decrease from last year [36.5] to make room for other players; T-Mac (15)- obviously we'll see lineups with him at the SF position: Bonzi (5)- figures he'll get something there

2: T-Mac: (20)- takes his total to 35, about eight/tenths of a minute less from his total mpg last year; Bonzi (15): Luther (10)

1: Steve : (24) Mike James (24)

I left out Aaron Brooks because I don't think it's a guarantee he'll play, not because Adelman won't play Rookies, but because it's not that often that you have 3 PGs playing in a rotation.

The other scenario I've seen people here throwing around is basically eliminating Luther, giving those 10 minutes to Steve at SG, then giving Brooks 10 minutes at PG, which might be fine if Brooks can shoot 3s, but I still want Luther because in a few years we might not have Bonzi or Mike James. Of course this has been discussed ad nauseum on other threads, but I think what I posted is what we'll see in the playoffs.

 

i'm going to use about 650 of my monthly plan.

What about u guys?

 

i'd like to see both yao and tmac down around 30 minutes for the majority of the season.

yao - 30
tmac - 30
francis - 25
bonzi - 20
battier - 25
james - 20
scola - 25
brooks - 15

head/deke/hayes/other - 50


obviously many minutes left over to spare for the back end of the bench, but again i'd like to see coach a run a similar rotation (minute wise) to that of popovich.

 

I don't trust Wells...-_-

 

Here's mine.

PG - Francis,24 - James,24
SG - McGrady,17 - Head,15 - Francis,6
SF - Battier,30 - McGrady,18
PF - Scola,30 - Hayes,18
C - Yao,36 - Butler,12

Total:
McGrady: 35 mpg
Yao: 36 mpg
Battier: 30 mpg
Francis: 30 mpg
Scola: 30 mpg
Head: 15 mpg
James: 24 mpg
Hayes: 18 mpg
Butler: 12 mpg

 

i like this one, but bonzi?

 

Point Guard: 48 minutes

Steve Francis 24

Mike James 24

This gives Adelman flexibility at point guard and allows James to get fair playing time.

Shooting Guard: 48 minutes

Tracy McGrady 30

Bonzi Wells 10

Steve Francis 8

This helps give some back court combos where Francis gets some more PT, I think about 32 minutes in all, or exactly 1/3 of the guard minutes is just right.

Small Forward: 48 minutes

Shane Battier 30

Bonzi Wells 12

Tracy McGrady 6

I say play Bonzi a little more at SF now, even though it hurts his offense a little it lets Francis get more floor time and it also helps Bonzi a lot on defense as he can't guard SG's anymore playing at his "ideal playing weight" of about 240.

The team now has plenty of offense so rotations should be based more on D. It also gets Bonzi 22 minutes every night, which should be enough to earn him a full MLE and compete for 6th man of the year if he just keeps his head on straight.

Power Forward: 48 minutes

Luis Scola 30

Chuck Hayes 18

I think that's fair for both players as it stands right now.

Center: 48 minutes

Yao Ming 36
(if he stays healthy he can do it)

Dikembe Mutombo 12
(if defense and rebounding needed)

or

Jackie Butler 12
(if offense needed)

Butler and Mutombo can rotate based on situational need at C. So I see a 9.5 man rotation, which is about 2 deeper than what Van Gundy used, which is a huge difference.

Individually I see it as follows:

McGrady and Yao 36 minutes = 3 quarters of a game

If Yao just stays healthy he will do it.

Francis 32 minutes = 1/3 of 96 minutes available in the back court. That's about right for him.

Battier and Scola 30 minutes = They are certainly starters and warrant legit minutes, but I think playing them about 30 is more their range than playing them more. Really Van Gundy over played Battier I think.

Then bench players:

James 24
Bonzi 22

or vice versa of

Bonzi 24
James 22

You can rotate this from game to game, which means over the year they both get 23 minutes a game, that's a hell of a nice combo of perimeter scorers off the bench for 23 minutes each average.

Hayes 18

That's about perfect for him, playing him anywhere from 15-20 minutes a night.

Deke and Butler 12

Just use either one or the combination of the two in any manner based on situational need for the remaining time at C.

That's basically 10 guys deep rotation, which will eliminate so many of the problems JVG's short rotation caused, it will keep players fresher, develop the bench, and allow Adelman to keep all the egos in check. It's not really that hard at all and it's actually one hell of a damn good 10.

Alston and Head can b**** about PT, so they can be traded along with Hayes maybe so the team could get another PF/C big, then their should not be too much issue. Lucas is gone anyway.

Snyder, Novak, Brooks, Landry, Reed and such can wait for injuries to play and they will. Adelman will play them with injuries, unlike Van Gundy who would just tighten his rotation.

 

Yao - 33

T-Mac - 37

Francis - 33

James - 29

Scola - 30

 

Yao gets most of the minutes at center. Yao has a tendancy to miss 20 games or so, so his backup ought to be able to hold the fort, with intelligence, passing and rebounding. That sounds like Deke comes back, and Butler in reserve.

Scola gets most of the minutes at 4. Right now Hayes is primary backup, and we expect another move to bring someone else there that rebounds.

Tmac Battier Bonzi

Tmac gets to play 2 or 3, whereever he is most effective and comfortable. Hopefully a little less this year to stay fresh. He has good help in Battier and Wells, and I think they swap in and out at the two positions. Battier has never been a starter before JVG, so I think his minutes go down. Bonzi was recruited by Adelman, who knows how to use him, so I think he gets to play a good amount at the 2.

Francis and James battle for the 1 with Brooks in deep reserve. Best case- Francis is a starter again.

 

If battier gets more than 30 minutes a game, its only because of injuries and problems. Hopefully Tmac plays most of his minutes this year at the 3.

10 ppg while playing less than 30 minutes = OK.
10 ppg while playing 36 minutes = we're in trouble.