First of all, what do I mean by efficiency? Basically, efficiency means doing the most with the possessions you're a part, both on offense and defense. One way to estimate this is by looking at a stat provided at basketball-reference.com -- player win%. Essentially, it combines an estimate for an individual offensive and defensive efficiency (or Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating) into individual win%: win% = ORtg^14 / ( ORtg^14 + DRtg^14). The exact method for calculating the individual offensive and defensive ratings for a player is shown in Dean Oliver's Basketball On Paper, and it's too complicated to reproduce here. The general gist of it is described here. Note that win% will show the efficiency of a player, not impact. For overall impact in terms of producing wins (or losses), you can look at PW and PL. Anyways, here's the top 50 players in the league this year in terms of individual win% (cutoff is at least 250 minutes played): Most "Efficient" Players Hayes actually is ahead by a very wide margin, and what do you know second place is Dikembe Mutombo. Here's the list for Rockets players this season: Rockets Players The remarkable thing is that, going back to 1978, only Steve Kerr in 1996 had a higher win% with at least 250 minutes played! That's pretty impressive, considering it is only Chuck Hayes's first season. Granted, he's not asked to do a lot, but he certainly makes the most with his role on the team. And, for fun, here's a list of the least efficient players this season. Our very own Ryan Bowen makes the top 10. Congrats! Least Efficient Players
Why? He was a very efficient scorer this season (62% true shooting percentage). His good defensive rating is helped by the Pacers's overall strong team defense, of course. It struck me as strange as well, and Mutombo certainly didn't have nearly as strong a year this season as last season. But the difference isn't so much efficiency, but rather a significantly reduced role on offense. He was actually a more efficient scorer in 2006 (63 TS%), which is a career high and second in the league only to Steve Nash. But he was so invisible on offense that it wasn't really noticeable. For players playing at least 500 minutes on the season, only Michael Ruffin, DeSagna Diop, and Mark Madsen had a lower usage rate (which measures possessions used via scoring attempts, turnovers, and assists per 40 minutes). So, his offensive rating (or offensive efficiency) is very high while he's barely involved. Defensively, he's still a very good player and as a result he has one of the better defensive ratings in the league (though it's not as good as the previous season). Combine his strong offensive rating and defensive ratings, and he turns out to be an extremely efficient player. Again, I'll stress that this doesn't necessarily measure impact -- clearly Mutombo has virtually no impact on offense and is in fact probably a liability since he's so limited. But, nevertheless, strictly speaking he was still very efficient.
Actually this stuff is interesting if for no other reason than it is probably the type of thing that our future GM is going to be using as a tool. This is the sort of thing that can be a help in adding good role players, as in a lot of the guys in that Top 50, mixed in among all those top-shelf stars; but also as a decent way to help possibly weed out some of the bottom-feeders whom we might otherwise find tempting as a FA .. guys whose name syou occasionally hear tossed around this BBS like Jerom James, McCarty, Miles, Kareem Rush, Voshon Lenard, and heck, even Pietrus.. this list could maybe help us avoid some of these guys who don't seem to contribute much to helping a team win.
as much as i love Rubber Chucky [Hayes] (check all of my previous posts), i think he might prove expendable if we can get our hands on Paul Millsap. i would love for us to have specialists, but i'm afraid our roster will only have room for one undersized rebounding-w****. on top of that, millsap isn't stiff like Shelden and actually has a considerable offensive game. Defensive Stopper :: Replace RyBoCop with Bobby Jones [Late 2nd-Round Pick] Athletic 2 :: Replace Keith Bogans with Ronnie Brewer [Lottery Pick] Hustling 4 Spot :: Replace Rubber Chucky with Paul Millsap [Late 1st-Round Pick] Outside Shooting PF :: Replace JudasHoward with Novak/Pittsnogle (yeah, it's true that neither Novak or 'Nogle are good at defense, but neither is Judas, so we don't lose anything here); or replace Judas with Raef [see my sig] Undersized 2 ( ):: Replace Wesley with Taquan Dean [Undrafted] Undrafted Rookies :: Follow Up Rubber Chucky of this year with Rashad Anderson and Denham Brown (smart players who get overlooked) Assuming V-Span will stay in Greece one more year to win their championship :: 1 - Rafer | Luther | Bobby Sura 2 - Brewer (draft down)| Denham Brown (undrafted)| Taquan Dean (undrafted) 3 - TMac | Rashad Anderson (undrafted)| Bobby Jones (acquire via draft trade) 4 - Millsap (draft down)| Novak/Pittsnogle (draft) 5 - Yao | Deke that leaves 2 spots open for veteran/FA help. or 1 - Rafer | Luther | 2 - Ronnie Brewer (draft down)| Brown/Anderson (undrafted) 3 - TMac | Gerald Green (trade)| Bobby Jones (acquire via draft trade) 4 - LaFrentz (trade)| Millsap (draft down)| Novak/Pittsnogle (draft) 5 - Yao | Deke this leaves 3 spots open. it makes no mention of: Rubber Chucky, Keith Bogans, DWesley, RyBoCop, or Magic Lamp; who knows what happens with them. it is also assuming: 1) Bobby Sura overdoses, oops, i mean, retires, 2) the Juwan|Stro for Green|LaFrentz trade goes thru, 3) we trade our top pick down to pick up Brewer and Millsap, 4) we keep our 2nd round pick for Novak/Pitt, 5) we acquire another 2nd Rounder (Bobby Jones) for a future 2nd Rounder + cash do i honestly believe we can trade our *hopefully* Top 3 Pick down for a lottery pick AND a late 1st rounder? if it is indeed a Top 3 Pick, then yes. god, i hope we don't get Tyrus "Inside-Only" Thomas, LaMarcus "Stromile" Aldridge, Adam "Diabetes" Morrison, Andrea "Low Release Point" Bargnani, or Brandon "Bad Knees" Roy.
ok, lets see: 1. Head can't play the PG .. the dude just cant .. he might be a good 2, but not a 1.. 2. why would u bring 3 inexperienced players via draft and pick up from the undrafted pool to be our back court ????.. u need veterans in the backcourt to win championships.. 3.Rashad Anderson ?? Bobby Jones/??? we need a good, athletic, not necessarily young SF to backup T-mac and play a good 10 minutes a game.. why bring drafted & undrafted players?? 4.Milsap and Novak? omg.. that's just messed up.. we need powerforwards, not jokes... 5. this one is good.. I dont think a team with 7 rookies can operate properly.. it's absolutely a bad idea and I dont there is a way on earth to make it work.. I somewhat agree with u on this one.. I think our answer is JJ REDICK !!!
my thoughts are this thread is getting off the topic. whether Hayes is efficient or not, i dont care, he's a reasonable second option. but not ideal. if we can upgrade at his spot thru the draft/offseason moves then he'll be gone.
hahah - i'm not tooooooo sure about reddick, but yeah i see your points. before i go on, note that my 'roster' still allowed for 2 more players, which could be filled in with veterans. 1) Head can be a damn good 2 for sure, but i say we groom him to be our 1, b/c we're kinda stuck with Rafer [he's good, but not GREAT, hence the word 'stuck'] and Sura sure as hell will never come back, and the Rox don't have much confidence in JL3. V-Span, according to TaunTaun the Greek Poster, will likely stay for one more year for when Greece hosts the Euro Cup [or whatever it's called]. we will not draft a PG, and we're unlikely to find one better than Rafer in a trade. and Cassell will not come here for just the MLE. [sorry for the run-on sentences.] hence, i left Luther at the 1 with Rafer. 2) D-Wes is too short to defend, too old to play, and not at all able to consistently drain outside shots anymore. Bogans is decent height, decent age, decent defensively, but an average finisher and a sub-par shooter. obviously the 2 is our main spot of concern this offseason. we are either banking on Roy, Carney, Brewer, or a trade for someone else. barring a trade, we're left with rookies. i forgot what i was gonna say about Carney [i have a test soon]. [EDIT: here's the portion of the analysis of his weaknesses that kills him, IMO. "While Carney has a legit case to be considered the most athletic wing player in this draft, he really doesn’t take advantage of his athleticism as much as you would hope. The biggest issue here is the fact that he seems to lack the ball-handling skills and possibly the motivation to actually take his man off the dribble and create high percentage shots for himself. A player with his first step should take the ball to the basket strong to the hoop and either finish or get fouled a dozen times per game at the Conference USA level. Instead, Carney settles for too many mid-range or long range jump-shots, attempting twice as many 3-pointers as he did free throws (7 per game as opposed to 3.5 free throws), attempting more 3-pointers than 2-pointers, and only shooting 43% from the field. His shot-selection can be very shaky at times, as he generally appears to lack the type of feel for the game and understanding of situations you would hope for from a player with his physical tools. Making freshman mistakes were not out of the question for the senior Carney this year. His free throw shooting could also stand to improve at just 71%. You have to wonder what he is lacking in his game right now that prevents him from going all the way to the basket and just exploding off the ground for an athletic finish. Theories include strength, mental toughness, body control and physical toughness. These same all apply to his rebounding ability at the small forward position, where his natural physical tools should allow him to average more than just a paltry 4.3 rebounds per game. The other parts of the game that make up the boxscore, including his assists, steals and blocks are also not all that impressive, although much of this has to do with the fact that he doesn’t get as many minutes as most top 20 pick draft candidates. Even though he’s a senior, you still never quite know what you are going to get when Carney hits the floor each night. One game he’ll explode for 37 points and 10 rebounds as he did against Louisiana Tech, and in the Elite Eight he’ll shoot 2/12 from the field for 5 total points. If he misses his first couple of jump-shots, he’ll often just disappear from the game for the rest of the night, looking tentative and awkward out on the floor and not quite knowing how to get himself back on track." roy, though well-rounded and my #1 pick up until yesterday, has bad knees ALREADY. that leaves Brewer. check the March Madness section for the thread about him, as well as DraftExpress.com's analysis of him. i say he's our best bet. i will talk about denham brown and rashad anderson in part (3). taquan dean, IMO, is a great benchplayer to have; a 'sparkplug' if i've ever seen one. this guy is used to carrying a team, and even though he's kinda short for his tweener position, i say he's a younger, more talented version of David Wesley. in other words, if we feel the need to get a short SG w/ sub-par PG skills, i say we save money and pick up taquan as an undrafted rookie instead of paying Old D-Wesley whatever he's gonna get. 3) before i keep going, i know there are A LOT of rookies on my 'roster.' there's no way that we'll actually get even half this many, but all of the rookies i have are legit. the rookies i listed come from good programs, and to my knowledge none of them have behavioral problems; so they should get along with JVG just as well as luther did this year. i think brandon roy might be a little more mature than ronnie brewer, but the rest are alright. to back up t-mac, let's face it - we can't spend too much money b/c we don't have enough, nor can we really afford anyone. and the closest guys we could trade for are like eric williams of toronto or Gerald from Beantown. or, obviously, re-signing bogans. other than that, we're kinda low on options. and as i epitomized publicly last month, it's A LOT cheaper to rebuild using the draft than it is via trades. true, the trades will likely bring you more experienced players, but some might have maturity problems, injury problems, etc. with rookies, you're getting them fresh, unused, and VERY cheap. like RIDICULOUSLY cheap. there are no agents talking up their players, and there are no teams playing bidding wars. that being said, if we could get rashad anderson and denham brown for swingman spots in this draft, that would be our best case scenario. i'm not sure how much UConn ball you watched, but these players were H-U-S-T-L-E, big-time players. aside from marcus williams, these two were probably the MVPs of the team. gay has a lot of talent, but he has no passion. these two players would hit the killer 3s, would end up with the rebound amidst the fray, would get their hands on the loose ball, etc. they helped form a very mature supporting cast, and i have full faith that they will be consummate pros. these are the types of well-rounded players that can do everything decently that our team needs. yeah, they're kinda short (both 6'5'') for the SF spot, but they will make their presence felt and will make everyone else on the team better through their hustle. wow, that was a lot of typing. and bobby jones - frankly, he's RyBoCop with upside, athleticism, and crazy hops. from what i've read, he's like the swingman-defensive-stopper version of Kelvin Cato, except he has passion [he also is perfect for alley-oops]. i hate RyBoCop, and i hope we never have to see him running around on the court with his hands flailing. i [obviously JVG would never give up his lover] say we buy out RyBo, and ask for one of the Jazz's back-to-back 2nd rounders [46,47] for a future 2nd rounder, and pick up Bobby. 4) so who would you like better? maybe Judas Howard? i know i'm the biggest Rubber Chucky [Hayes] fan, but who else? if we can trade Juwan & Stro to Boston, that leaves only Hayes [and LaFrentz]. who would you rather draft? Shelden Williams? here's the part of his profile that troubles me: "He often relies too much on his strength to score around the paint, not having too much finesse to his game. Most of his points come off layups, dunks, free throws and short jump-hook shots around the basket. It’s unlikely that he will be able to maintain the same scoring production at the NBA level where everyone is bigger, more athletic and often just as strong as he is. The lack of legit size and skill in NCAA is a concern when you try to project him to the NBA, as he is truly a man amongst boys. At times will try to force his way to the hoop using his brute strength, either traveling in the process or being called for an offensive foul." millsap offers a great deal of the same qualities as Williams, but is a lesser rated prospect. he's more like an offensively-motivated Udonis Haslem. he can block shots when he's not going for pump fakes and is a big presence down low. perhaps the main reason i'm mentioning him is that, as a 6'8'' PF junior, this is the THIRD STRAIGHT YEAR he LED THE NCAA in REBOUNDS. that's a pretty big achievement. he's obviously not perfect, either, otherwise he wouldn't be around #23 on the mocks. here's what bothered me: "[he could only be able to play PF or C, and at 6'8'' he's wayyy too short for that... has no outside shot [much like Shelden]... On the other end of the floor, Millsap definitely is not an amazing man to man defender. His lateral quickness is just decent guarding big men on the perimeter, and he has a tendency to take possessions off as many players in his situation in college are forced to do because of the way their team relies on them on the other end of the floor. When he is playing with full intensity on this end he has a tendency to pick up cheap fouls, which is a clear recipe for disaster for Louisiana Tech if he has to sit out more than 5 minutes at a time. Like many good shot-blockers, Millsap has issues at times with trying to block every shot that comes his way and therefore being vulnerable to pump-fakes, head fakes and exposing his team on the glass once he bites... [and he sucks at free throws - shooting around 60%]. if we are to win a Top 3 pick, there's no way in hell we could trade it for a #7 [Brewer-range] & a #8 [Shelden-range]. so it helps that Brewer is ranked around #12 and Millsap is ranked around #23. we need shooters. we were successful when we had bench PF/SFs like Bullard and Padgett to open things up with their range, and i think we should return to that tradition. we will not likely be able to get a guard that can do everything well, including shooting - brandon roy is anyone's best bet for an all-around good guard, but even HE isn't a great shooter [or in great shape (knees)]. so we will have to use some of the other positions to address our talent needs. when i look at our roster and see players like Magic Lamp and Richie Frahm and Jon Barry, etc., sitting on our bench, i ask myself, why can't that be Steve Novak or Kevin Pittsnogle sitting... even if they never get off the pine [Barry,Bullard, & Padgett didn't get many minutes, due to their defense, except to spark the team if the offense was lagging - Novak/Pittsnogle could fit the same role], i'd prefer we have THEM then, say Magic Lamp for another year. wow - another long part. 5) i'm glad we agree on this. if we somehow get Raef and Gerald G, Raef could also replace Deke next year as Yao's back-up center. okay i'm done.
Deke IS efficient though...blocks shots, is smart, great screen-setter and makes his open shot opportunities... I sure do hope Hayes is back next year... and please get rid of Bowen...
man give hayes 30 minutes per game that effiency will go down, hes one of those players that can just come in for a couple minutes and bring energy wen the team needs it
i love rubber chucky, but i see what you're saying. i guess an analogy would be: i can run a 1 min. 45 sec. Quarter Mile - but that doesn't mean i can run a 7 min. Mile. [at least not anymore] is that accurate? basically the premise is that, his efficiency is due to a burst of energy over an extremely short period of time; with a bigtime time increase, it's unlikely that he can keep it up/maintain it at such high rate.
