Analysis and projections on Swift, SAR and Walker versus Howard.

good analysis....i agree to that SAR would be ideal from the three you mentioned...however...the problem arises that Yao Ming needs some help down low....in regards to help D....a guy who can push people around down there....Ming got dunked on too many times....even though i agree with SAR i don't really think he is the "perfect" fit..though i don't think there are too many of those "perfect" fits out there.

 

My bet is we don't get any of these guys through free agency with our MLE. I don't see any of these guys who are on the right side of 30 accepting the MLE just for the chance to play with a contending team, that is all agent posturing. All of these guys are making more than the MLE now and IMO all of these guys are going to find teams willing to pay more than the MLE for their services. Only way we get SAR, Swift or AW is through S&T. My gut feeling is that we will wind up with a second tier player at the PF like Madsen or Potapenko and we pick up AD for a long term MLE deal.

 

SAR, Walker, Swift, etc. ARE second tier guys. Madsen and Potapenko are about fifth tier guys. First tier power forwards are players like Garnett, Duncan, and Brand, and they get max contracts.

 

Ugh, I'd never forgive CD if this happen. No way he is gonna flirt w/ big name FAs and end up w/ this crap.

Here is my FA wishlist:

1. Swift- Athletic, young, good defender, has an decent offensive game.

2. SAR- Good offensive game, probably the most efficient scorer out of the bunch. Underrated rebounder, defense is suspect.

3. Walker- Best rebounder of the bunch. Has a good offensive game but w/ suspect decision making.

 

So why give out $30 million to his younger brother when we already have Juwon himself?

 

Because Shareef will be better, longer. That is like asking why someone would want Michael Redd over Allen Houston.

 

I think a better comparison for Walker is he's the power forward equivalent of Steve Francis. Just look at the similarities.

-Plays with a lot of heart/passion and always sticks up for his teammates
-Has a flair for the dramatic (makes the triple pump layup, but misses the wide open layup; makes unnecessary no look passes, etc.)
-Good rebounder
-Can lead a team to mediocre records (40 wins) every season
-Has a tendency to try and win games all by himself
-Capable of winning a game by himself as well as lose a game all by himself
-Extremely streaky shooter
-He's a volume shooter
-Poor shot selection
-Dominates the ball
-Averages almost as many turnovers as assists
-Weak defender
-He's a tease - just when you think you've finally gotten through to him, he'll go right back to his old ways

The similarities are endless.

Walker (like Francis) is the perfect example of how a player can have all the talent and heart in the world, but still not amount to much because of his boneheadedness.

Just because Walker may be willing to change his game to accommodate playing with Mcgrady and Yao, doesn't mean it will be a change for the better. Doesn't anyone remember how much Francis' game suffered under Van Gundy when he finally became the 2nd or 3rd option on offense?

 

I could reopen my thread of making the case for SAR. He's the most consistent player left at the 4. I think he's very,very hungry and will only sign with a team like the Rox or Nets since he's been seen as a loser. I you think about it, if SAR has 4 or 5 good yrs on a good team, he'll approach 20k point and 10k rebs which is hall of fame numbers in the nba. If you bring in SAR and give him 12 shots, its 16p and 8 rebs with 50% from the floor every night. Then at the 2 you go get a 25yr old Demarr Johnson or Kerry kittles/gerald wallace combo and you will kill the Rox scoring droughts.

 

Juwan Howard last season's best numbers:
29 points, 14 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals(2x), two blocks.

Since SAR played some sf last season, his 2002-2003 season in Atlanta would give a better look at how he'd play at pf. His best numbers that season:

SEASON HIGHS: 33 pts v/NY (3/14), 17 rebs @NY (1/28), 7 assts (2x), 6 stls v/Det (1/4), 2 blks (6x), 55 mins v/Port (1/22), 13 FGM (2x), 3 3FGM v/Milw (3/12), 14 FTM @Sac (11/10).

Here is his game summary on 2002-2003 and 2001-2002 on NBA.com:

2002-03:
In his second year in Atlanta, Abdur-Rahim continued his steady and consistent play for the Hawks and with the addition of Glenn Robinson to the lineup with Jason Terry, the Hawks ended the season as the only NBA team with three players ranked among the league's top 40 scorers.
• Robinson's 20.8 ppg tied him for 19th best in the NBA, while Abdur-Rahim finished 26th at a 19.9 ppg clip and Terry was tied for 39th with 18.6 ppg
Imagine Rahim playing with T-Mac and Yao!
• For the first time since his rookie season in Vancouver, he didn't conclude the year with an average of 20 ppg or more - by one-tenth of a point - at 19.9 ppg
• Among the league's leaders in points scored, rebounds, FG%, FT%, double-doubles and player efficiency rating, Abdur-Rahim was second on the Hawks in scoring and assists, first in rebounds and third in assists
• March was his best month statistically with 22.2 points in 15 games • He connected on 53.4 percent of his field goal attempts as well
• On December 28, an Abdur-Rahim jump shot at Washington made him the fifth-youngest player in NBA history to reach the 10,000-point plateau
• At 26 years and 17 days, he followed Bob McAdoo (25 yrs/148 days), Shaquille O'Neal (25/341), Michael Jordan (25/343) and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (25/344) in hitting that mark
• Not much difference between his numbers when he played at home (20.5 ppg, 8.3 rpg) or on the road (19.2 ppg, 8.4 rpg), or prior to the All-Star break (20.1 ppg, 8.2 rpg) and after (19.5 ppg, 8.6 rpg)
That's what we need, playing well at home against Dallas!
• In Atlanta's 35 victories, Abdur-Rahim shot 49.6 percent from the field and tallied 21.6 points
• He scored 3.1 points less in Hawks' losses
Which is why SAR has an impact on games, but it doesn't always tranlate into wins because his team doesn't play much D, especially Glen Robinson and Jason Terry.
• He missed only one game of action - the 2002-03 season opener (at NJ) - with a sore back
• Abdur-Rahim averaged 19.9 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.1 spg and 0.5 bpg in 38.1 mins last season (.478 FG%, .350 3FG%, .841 FT%)
• Led Atlanta in scoring 27 times, in rebounding 38 times and in assists 9 times
• He posted double-digit scoring games 80 times and rebounds 29 times
• Abdur-Rahim registered 30 points or more five times, 20 or more 35 times
• SEASON HIGHS: 33 pts v/NY (3/14), 17 rebs @NY (1/28), 7 assts (2x), 6 stls v/Det (1/4), 2 blks (6x), 55 mins v/Port (1/22), 13 FGM (2x), 3 3FGM v/Milw (3/12), 14 FTM @Sac (11/10).

2001-02:
Abdur-Rahim led the Hawks in scoring (15th in the NBA), rebounding (13th in the league), field goal percentage, blocks and minutes played...He recorded his fifth straight 20+ scoring season, finishing with 21.2 ppg, the highest average by a Hawks player since 1997-98 (Steve Smith's 20.1)...Combining his numbers with those of guard Jason Terry, the duo were one of seven who ranked among the NBA's top 30 in scoring last year...The fifth-highest scoring pair in the league (and third-highest in the East), they accounted for 40.5 ppg, trailing only Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant (52.4) in Los Angeles, Boston's Antoine Walker and Paul Pierce (48.2), Ray Allen and Sam Cassell of Milwaukee (41.5), and Dallas' Dirk Nowitizki and Steve Nash (41.3)...The only time Abdur-Rahim scored less than 20+ points in a given month occurred during December, when he averaged 17.5 ppg...

In Hawks' wins, he accounted for 23.7 ppg, 8.8 rpg and 3.4 apg, hitting 51.7% from the field...In Hawks' losses he totaled 19.5 ppg, 9.2 rpg and 2.9 apg (.423 FG%)...

When he played on more than two days rest, he was extremely effective, scoring 24.4 ppg and pulling down 10.2 rpg (.498 FG%)...

He also was 14th among league players in double-doubles with 32

...Named the NBA's Player of the Week for November 19-25, the honor was bolstered by a career-night against the Detroit Pistons on November 23...Abdur-Rahim ripped the visitors for 50 points, becoming the first Atlanta player to reach that milestone since Dominique Wilkins did it in December 1991...The career-high night saw him make a personal-best 21 field goals as he repeatedly took it to a host of Piston defenders...

Overlooked in the talented Western Conference during his days in Vancouver, he continued to elevate his game during the early months of the season, and for the first time in career, was selected to play in the All-Star Game...Selected as a reserve by Eastern Conference coaches, Abdur-Rahim scored nine points and grabbed six rebounds in his first appearance...Unfortunately for him, he also reached another first in 2001-02, when he was placed on the injured list on November 10...A left knee contusion and bone bruise caused him to miss only the fourth game of his career to injury...He was also suspended for three games by the NBA for an altercation with Houston's Kenny Thomas on January 21...He missed one more game (March 23 vs. Chicago) due to personal reasons (the birth of his son)...In addition to his team-high scoring average, Abdur-Rahim also accounted for 9.0 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.3 spg and 1.1 bpg in 38.7 mins (.461 FG%, .300 3FG%, .801 FT%)...Led Atlanta in scoring 36 times, in rebounding 40 times and in assists 11 times...He posted double-digit scoring games 71 times and rebounds 33 times...Abdur-Rahim registered 30 points or more eight times, 20 or more 38 times...SEASON HIGHS: 50 pts v/Det (11/23), 18 rebs @Hou (10/30), 9 assts @Clev (3/5), 7 stls @NY (2/7), 5 blks (2x), 53 mins v/Clev (4/13), 21 FGM v/Det (11/23), 16 FTM v/NJ (2/12).
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I'd welcome guys like Swift and Marshall... but with less enthusiasm than SAR. SAR can flat out ball and dish out some amazing games. Unfortunately his market value is out of our range of MLE, I see a S&T deal if luck falls on the Rockets shoulder again, by a long shot.

 

I completely agree. Marshall is the best option but when considering the age he might drop down. I don't think he will get anything past a 4 year deal. I also doubt he will get more than the MLE unless a PF hungry team is desperate.

Also you should count these guys effective FG which takes into account the 3 pters extra point.


Name----eFG%---Jump eFG%
DM------57.0%----54.5%
SAR------51.4%---41.5%
SS-------45.0%----28.2%
RE-------47.8%----20.0%
JH-------45.0%----42.3%
AW------47.5%----41.7%

Now if we take Marshall hopefully he doesn't turn into the next Brent Barry and really fall off shooting wise.

 

Man, I hope Howard gets healthy - because I am underwhelmed by the power forward options in free agency.

Stromile Swift is probably the number one target, primarily because of his athleticism and his defense - but he's never really put together a stretch of pure domination that would be expected of someone with that kind of natural physical talent.

Antoine Walker will change his game. He's not going to jack up so many shots, he's going to be the playmaking forward his talent shows he can be on a full-time basis, rather than offer up tantalizing glimpses of his ability. Finally, he's going to put it all together and become a complete player. Oddly enough, this is pretty much the same thing people have been saying for the past nine seasons - funny that. He's been in the league for nine years - he is who he is. He's a great team guy, and an intense locker room presence. He's going to rebound well, and for a power forward you'll find few better and handling and passing the ball. Offensively he's capable of brilliance at times that it leaves your jaw on the floor - and nights where he starts out ice cold from three and just. keeps. shooting. His latest stint in Boston was encouraging - but can two dozen games really wipe out nine seasons of habit?

Shareef Abdur-Rahim. If he signed here, it would probably be the first time in his career his expectations will match his ability. He's put up some huge numbers - points, rebounds, losses. He might make a decent third option.

 

stro swift worries me. i don't want to bank our offseason on a guy that is questionable on effort. good lord, he could be our next cato.

antoine would be the boldest move with the most upside. he can make the entry pass to yao, clear up the paint, handle the ball. If any can beat the stupidity out of toine, it's van gundy.

SAR would be the safest move if we could land him.

 

The one key word in all of this that will make the improbable inappropriate, the unlikely reasonable, and the impossible attainable is 'MOTIVATION'. One or two key players added into this unique mix with T-Mac, Yao, etc. and a championship ring is not only a realistic goal but a distinct outcome and result. Everyone of these free agents will mull this fact over in his own consciousness before they say yes to more money on a team going nowhere quick. Comparing this free agency quest to the poker game of Texas Hold-Em, we have a pair of Aces in the hole. The juju bones never lie. My gut feelings tells me most of us will be surprised, astounded, relieved, and quite optimistic. The main reason this can happen is:

JVG is a standup guy with personal integrity and is not afraid to issue challenges and demand the discipline to get the task done. A lot of these guys are hungry for just that very thing. It's not always about the money. Intangible and inexplicable forces are at work here. Let it ride and be written. Besides Quasimodo no longer figures into the equation. He has been silenced with a safety pin through his head. So much for voodoo dolls.

Note: I'm not all nuts. Quite the opposite. Just a little left of center and aware that most things happen in that gray area between black and white, whether we admit it to not. Additionally, the Rockets have so many great fans that genuinely care about what happens and how, even down to every little detail. Not just token commercial patronizing. The best upside is none of this can be bought at any price. Props all around. You deserve it.

 

If we can get the Antoine Walker version 2 that they got from atlanta that would be great. I really don't like his free throw percent, and how week is his defense?

Swift certainly seems to have the talent, but apparently Jerry West doesn't want to bring him back and that is never a good sign.

 

You have to remember SAR's rebounding numbers are depressed becaused he was forced to play the 3 for alot of the last 2 seasons. I expect him to get alot more rebounds playing the 4 position strictly.

 

I'll take Walker or SAR over Swift.

Walker and SAR are legit starters and and be 3rd scoring options. Swift is not. And unless the rockets upgrade their backcourt with a 3rd option on offense, then i would take a shot on these two. There's no need to compare what Walker and SAR have done in this league to Swift, cause there's no comparison.

 

I have a feeling that Swift will get more than $5 MIL per year and will be overpaid.

 

Yes. Not sure where they start counting shots as jumpers - I guess 15ft. Or I guess they could actually be counting jumpers from where ever they may be.

Got these stats from 82games.com - Lots of cool stats.

http://www.82games.com/04TOR9A.HTM