Game Power 60 is 23-27 homers for a season per https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scale/ (Kiley's worked for a couple of teams). As a season is usually assumed to be about 600 PAs. That would put Chas at ~24 homers per season for his career. Last season, he was hitting homers at a faster pace than Tucker (i.e., per PA). If he was played like a big boy and got in the upper 600s in PAs, he would have hit 33 homers at his pace last season. Maybe its changed some, but last year he would have been in the Top 30ish homer run hitters if treated like almost every other hitter who has performed as well as him.
Yeah - at the time he was drafted, it was seen as an overpay and a reach by a lot of people in the game. Brown said that he views him as a long-term SS. Seeing situations like this give me faith in Brown as a scout. Taking the clear cut "best player available" and having them pan out doesn't mean much when it comes to scouting ability to me. However, when an organization is taking some guys that are off the radar, and they pan out, that tells me that they know what they are doing, that they are not just going with the consensus. I didn''t know much about Jaworsky when the Astros drafted him. I knew he was considered a top 50 high school prospect in his class, but I expected him to go to college and be drafted in a few years in the middle rounds. Instead the Astros took him and paid him above slot.
Yeah - he doesn't have a man's body yet like some of the 18-20 year olds that moved up lower levels really well and quick. He is doing it based on ability and not sheer physical superiority.
It will work itself out long term. In the short term, my guess is maybe Loperfido is sent down - but he has looked good. Pedro Leon has more value to the Astros than anyone else - especially based on what I have heard internally. There is internal cautious optimism that Leon has improved his approach enough that he can play at a high level - we will see.
James Hicks had another solid day on the mound for Asheville as he allowed a run on a solo homer, three other hits, and struck out seven in five innings. Derek True pitched the final four innings and he allowed a two-run homer, four other hits, and also struck out seven. Jeron Williams hit his third homer of the year to lead off the bottom of the 1st. In the 9th, he hit a two-run single that tied the game and then an error allowed Anthony Sherwin to score the winning run. Asheville beat Rome 4-3.
I’ve seen enough of Misael Tamarez as a SP, he got rocked again tonight. Time to shift him to the pen and see if he can at least be an enigmatic low leverage RP.
There are 25 pitchers on the Sugar Land roster. By my count there are 3 potential starters and another 3 potential relievers and that is being very generous. It takes more than that to make a team, but not 19 more. The limit on total players there is 28. I have no Idea why this farce is being carried on but it is time to let a few of these poor guys go so that they can begin to put together a life for themselves. Tamarez is as good a place to start as any.
Chas's wRC+ and OPS from 2021-current are closer to Tucker's than Dubon's as an Astro are to Chas's. Chas's numbers aren't close to Tucker's. Loperfido...too early to tell. From 2021-2024, Chas is the 26th best OF in OF fWAR despite not playing as much as most of the guys above him (Trout, Buxton, Alvarez are the only OFs with more OF fWAR with less PAs). On a per PA analysis, Chas is right there with Springer, Reynolds, Mullins and well above Starling Marte. I do not consider George Springer platoon/4th OF quality and by extension guys that perform similarly in value even if done in different ways like Reynolds, Mullins, and Chas are also not 4th OFs/platoon guys. Chas still probably isn't needed as Yordan, Meyers, and Tucker are probably the best OF in baseball. Astros's OF is currently ranked 2nd in fWAR. I get not wanting to play Yordan everyday in the OF. I fully expect Meyers's offensive stats to drop some, but his defense is good.
Chas and Urquidy having good seasons this year would make them prime trade candidates this offseason imho. Too bad both have been hurt.
Half the pitchers on that roster are only there as a result of the glut of injuries at the big league level, so many of them will be cut loose as guys get healthy. But Tamarez is one of the higher ceiling guys on that staff. It is pretty clear that he isn’t developing enough to be a starter but a guy with his stuff needs a long look in the bullpen before he gets cut; he is only 24.
Offseason? Chas is almost back. There is still plenty of season left for Chas, and his stats aren't that bad such that many great hitters (i'd have Chas as a good hitter as he sells out for 60 Game Power) have slumps like that during the season. Most of the time when a guy has a normal slump or injury related slump at the beginning of the season, it doesn't mean anything more significant in evaluating a player than a mid season slump. Alvarez, Altuve, Bregman, and Diaz are in similar or worse slumps in the past 30 days (i.e., over more PAs than Chas's 83 for the season) than Chas is for the season.
Jeron Williams and Luis Baez are looking like they’ll be ready for AA by the time the draft is here; both guys will have huge opportunities to get prospect hype if they hit well for the hooks. Promotions I think are going to happen in the next 5-6 weeks: Valencia, V Diaz, and Nieves to Fayetteville Santander, Jaworsky, and Carrillo to Asheville Williams, Baez, and Garcia to Corpus Melton to Sugar Land
I think if Chas has a good season on top of what he did last year, with almost no chance of extending Tucker, he would be far from a trade candidate. Even if we lose Alex (likely) they will do what they can to keep talent and win
