[3rd pick] Who do you want?

We can’t judge his defense by wing span and standing reach. I worry about his defense, more from just getting pushed around, but I don't think we should just assume he can't play defense when he was f$%6^ing great in college.

 

With league being so positionless I don't think it really matters what Amen is considered. Draymond led the Warriors in assists for a majority of the Warriors best years. Reed/Green/Amen can share the ball handling and matchup defensively depending on opposing rosters.

 

If Reed Sheppard can give you Tyler Hero-esque production, do you take him over a raw prospect with less of a foundation such as Risacher in the mold of a Franz Wagner?

The size alone is enticing from a prospect like that, with a pretty good shooting percentage from 3 as well. I like the size we currently have from top to bottom on this squad and to add another 6'9"+ forward would even further solidify that foundation we've laid for our core 6.

 

RS's defense in the NBA is an open question. Some of what RS did in college will transfer; some will not.

RS's offense in the NBA is more of an open question. RS appears to play well off the ball, shooting and passing wise. Very unsure if RS can play as an NBA PG. Also concerned that he will not have as many wide open 3s in the NBA as college, seeing that NBA team will likely have taller/longer players slicking with him at the 3 point line.

 

Nice. I’m sold on his defense: quick hands, quick lateral movement, fast recovery when beat

 

Positives




Negatives



I thought this was a fair assessment of his defense. Those videos are both linked at the positives and negatives of his defense.

 

Are you saying that Amen Thompson has good shooting mechanics? Comparable to Jabari’s? Lol just curious

 

Think Castle is the most likely Dude in the top end. Reed obviously has the best fit and the low upside stuff is a bit overblown imo, but his size concern is real, and if he cannot consistently play 1 it would be problematic, though he will be a good basketball player regardless. I’ve come around a bit with Clingan being the pick. It’s a bit too meh a pick at 3 especially with Adams waiting for the call and the Aussie doing good stuff at season end especially at the perimeter. Both Castle and Sheppard fit the Ime factory mold quite nicely.

 

I think a lot of the doubts about Sheppard as a prospect come from misunderstanding the type of prospect he is. He's not a "tools" prospect, where you count up his traits and predict whether he'll become a great player.

He's a "we're not entirely sure how all the tools add up to it, but this guy is just really f'ing good at basketball" prospect. Sengun-like in that way. Models say he's an elite elite prospect -- a 19yo with his his level of BPM and RAPM (so box score production and regressed on/off impact) comes along maybe once a year at most.

His only real statistical comps I can come up with from the last 5 or 6 years are Haliburton and Podziemski. Haliburton and Podziemski were sophomores, a few months older, and had worse impact metrics. All of them had big holes from a scouting / size / tools perspective, but on the court were just super good.

Haliburton is actually a super close match. Podziemski was more of a scorer and rebounder.

Per 100 possessions
Sheppard 23.3pts / 8.4ast / 7.7reb / 4.6stl / 1.3blk, 70% TS, 11.4 BPM, +7.9 RAPM
Haliburton 23.6pts / 10.0ast / 9.1reb / 3.8stl / 1.1blk, 63% TS, 11.7 BPM, +3.8 RAPM
Podziemski 31.0pts / 5.7ast / 13.7reb / 2.8stl / 0.7blk, 60% TS, 10.6 BPM, +4.5 RAPM

Sheppard also did it playing in the SEC. Haliburton and Podziemski were against weaker competition.

Also remember that the Rockets FO were reportedly big big fans of Podziemski.

 

Castle is a very Rockets type pick, he has great measurables but can't shoot.

I'm hoping they go in a different direction and pick a basketball player instead of just a body.

 

people at combine are saying reed is shorter than dillingham on court. dillingham listed at 6'1

 

Steals, blocks, and ratings don't tell the whole story. There are different aspects to defense. The season we reacquired Robert Covington he averaged 1.6 steals and 2.2 blocks, which is outstanding. He had 3.0 defensive win shares and 1.4 DBPM. Great numbers all around. He also had trouble keeping perimeter players in front of him. This was a huge problem. In the playoffs even "washed" CP3 torched him in iso, when the season prior he struggled to get around Jonas Jerebko on the Warriors. Man defense just wasn't Covington's specialty.

I don't think most scouts see Sheppard's man defense as elite.

 

If Risacher is available at 3 we take him. If not, trade down.

 

This does not concern me as a Rockets fan. I don't want teams to have defenders available to help guard Sengun or whoever ends up being the best offensive force for the Rockets.

This guy seems like a Rockets pick. I expect the stat guys to love Clingan and Sheppard, but they may also like Castle. I tend to discount guys that don't shoot 30% from the arc (i.e., I typically don't like guys that aren't guarded at the three point line....gotta be great like Amen), but he's got the POA defense and size that might work well against the quicker PGs of the NBA.

 

If the price is right, I'd trade up to get him.

 

This is good stuff. It’s a SKILL SPORT.

 

You said that one cannot win a championship with Jokic. Same thing you are now saying about Sengun.

Of course, Jokic proved you wrong just a few months later.

 

Watch the tape. I don’t think any scouts think he’s a poor man defender

 

They literally measured them at the combine. Sheppard is 3/4 “ taller.