Jalen Green’s frustration clear in the building - Iko

Oh my mistake, you have my apologies. I thought you were discussing real statistics, disregard my post then.

 

I already said in the post that "gamescore" is made up, and it's not perfect. But it's a lot better than just looking at points. He had a game where he scored 30 points on 8/24 shooting and had 5 turnovers. That's not a superstar game. If you have a better "did he have a good game" metric that is easy to look at, I'd be happy to use it. But points is not it. I think gamescore is good enough to demonstrate the point.

 

He isn't a superstar yet?

Look Green as of age 22 has some of the most impressive steaks for a player his age and some very bad ones.

We all know this. A coaching regime change after two years of poor coaching causes inconsistency, doubt in what place you have inches team etc.

What I care about is his talent and ability level. Why?

Because I'm confident Ime and his coaching staff will get all these guys we have near their ceiling or at it and Jalen Green at his ceiling is probably the most talented player we have.

Ime has one season with Green only and already made him into an competent defender and a player for an entire month had the best impact in the entire league playing at a MVP level. That's one year with Green.

 

Yeah, that's it, that's my point. And clearly we don't all know this because there is another guy in this thread who is arguing with me that it's not true. But that's the point I was making. Here is an excerpt that I think is a pretty good summary of the post if you don't want to read the entire thing -

 

This is exactly the issue. Great post.

 

I like this post. I really do. I dont understand how good of a metric GmSc actually is tho. Seems quite a bit flawed seeing as a seeing as a 21/8/6/2/1 game got a score of 16 but i guess maybe thats above average in todays uber production landscape.

None the less i appreciate the data and since you posted this on March 3rd, I just wanted to update it on the full season totals to get the full picture that includes his streak.

Jalen played 82 games so far this season. His breakdown is as follows
<10 (really bad): 36 games
10-15 (mediocre): 15 games
15-20 (above average): 15 games
20-25 (good): 6 games
25-30 (great): 5 games
30+ (superstar level): 5 games

For the curious, the last 22 games had 7 games under a 10GmSc 5 of which came after at the end of his streak.

Im not a fan of this statistic, and surely not the arbitrary cutoffs to describe them. It seems to highly prioritizes Jalens biggest weakness in efficiency, which makes sense since John Hollinger invented it and also really punishes turnovers. But for instance 16/5/7 garners a 9.7 which is not a really bad game even if Jalen took 16 shots to get there. i think its more suited for being split amongst 5pt sections also. (<5 is bad to really bad, 5-10 is below average, 10-15 is average) would seems a good compromise just glancing at the numbers.

None the less this was a fun experiment and i do thank you for putting in the work and laying the foundation.

he ended the season with the exact same amount of "mediocre to good" games that he did "really bad" games. He added what i would say are 10 star performaces where he lead the team to a 7-3 record and won those 7 games for us. and if you look past the arbitrary cutoffs he had some really big performances labeled as a 20-25 GmSc. For instance a 26/4/11 with 2 steals and a block game that gave him a 23 GmSc

 

Gamescore doesn't like poor shooting percentages, it doesn't like fouls, and it really doesn't like turnovers. He shot 6-15 in that game, had 5 fouls, and had 5 turnovers, those things reduce your score. Putting fouls in this formula is a bit suspect IMO, it ain't perfect. It also uses FG% instead of eFG or TS, which is also bad. I would probably bump that game up a notch if I was grading it personally. I'm sure if you went through each game and looked at them there would be a handful that should be moved up or down, but that's a lot of work.

I recalculated that same game with 6-12 shooting, only 2 turnovers and 2 fouls, and the gamescore is 22.3. Hopefully that gives you some context on how much those things hurt your score.

 

No i understand that, and you prefaced out the gate saying it wasnt perfect by any means. Just wanted to add further context that data analysis like this can sometimes miss the mark and scew the perception a little bit.

Overall its still a very fair representation over the course of a season that definitely highlights Jalens biggest problem. Which is consistency and such a wide variance between the highs and lows. This does paint that picture quite well and matches the eye test. But with all stats, they are just a piece of the pie that tries to tell the story.

Just goes to show what you prefer to see in a young player. consistency or high end performance? Im on the high end perfomance side as thats a much better indicator of future star potential. Whereas i believe consistency is nice but young players who are consistent typically become role players unless they are displaying high performance and consistency which are typically your high end superstars.

I dont think Jalen becomes that Uber superstar, I dont doubt that he "could", but i dont believe he will. I do think he will become an all-star though. If Jalen is an all-star for us, then thats a great success.

 

Stands to reason that turnovers would be a huge negative - a turnover is the absolute worst thing that can occur on a possession.
Same goes for fouls against, in many cases, that's a highly negative outcome (outside of fouling a dunk / layup making them earn it.) What's worse than an and one? Or a fresh possession starting on the baseline?

Poor shooting as well should lead to a low score. Much like turnovers being the worst thing, a missed shot leading to an opponent's possession is about as negative an outcome as it gets .....

I ran thru all 82 games a while back, in games Jalen shot league average (.364) or above from 3, the Rockets won 60% of the time. 18 wins out of 30.
Extrapolate that over the course of the season and the Rockets are the #6 seed in the West - ahead of New Orleans and PHX and less than a game behind Dallas for #5.

That leaves 52 games where he shot league average or worse.

To make matters worse, he had ZERO games where he shot between .363 and .334.

That means 52 games of .333 or worse and 38 of those were .250 or worse.

21 games - a full quarter of the season where he shot below .182 or lower

Efficiency matters and it matters on a nightly basis .... not just 25 games a year.

 

so you think 3pt% is the holy grail somehow?

if he made 1 extra 3 every 4 th game he would have eclipsed the league average from 3 on the season. 22 more made 3s over the span of a year is gonna lead to the 6th seed?

extrapolating data like this is a bit frivelous imo. It doesnt actually paint a picture or give any insight. Its an example of stats can back any argument.

 

Where are you?

 

Can you explain how Green has the third highest on/off impact on the entire team in team offensive points per possession only behind FVV and Landale(significantly small sample size)

Basically out of those who played significant minutes Green and FVV had the highest on/off impact on offensive points per possession.
Why is that?

 

Oh, I'm here. He had a great run without Sengun. Let's see how he does once the band gets back together....

 

I dont know where you get your stats ?

When i look on BKref jalen green does not have this impact stat

I see hes got one of the higher OBPM on the team , behind FVV , Sengun , and Cam whitmore but jock landale was behind him on that stat , so idk which one youre talking about

his on/off numbers indicate overall , he was our second worst starter behind jabari and well behind our true best players of FVV , Tate , and Tari.

is his +/- for offense was the indeed the 3rd best on the team , then his on-off for defense ( however they separate that) must've been horrible.

Greens best ability has been his availability.

 

Were they too raw or were they overcooked?

 

As you expected, it is indeed a cherry picked metric that hides the full picture.

His +2.1 on offense is indeed the 2nd highest behind only FVV when we ignore the super small sample guys....but his overall impact of -4.7....well that's really only better than Jabari Smith when you ignore the super small sample guys.

Jabari has shown a lot of progress though, so I think that's why we largely give him a pass. His numbers are night and day improved from his rookie season across the board.

Jalen's.....not so much.

 

https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/11/onoff#tab-team_efficiency


Cleaning the glass is a more useful tool for on/off impact than bballref as it removes noise like garbage time.

You have to pay for a monthly subscription to get a ranked list of all the players on the team and their on/off impact on offensive points per possession

But you can bypass that by just searching for each individual player on the roster and looking up their impact and compare them.

Whenever you hear NBA podcasters and analysts use on/off impact they use cleaning the glass.

 

Here we go . More drama

 

I get green is only 22. But how many 22 year olds in the nba had 3 years starting + the green light to showcase his skills. Plenty of time to grow already and i havent seen a whole lot of it in my opinion. Lets get a kings ransom. Lets hope KAT and edwards start arguing. Or it freezes all next winter up there.

 

It's not so simple as "extrapolating data", you have to look at the details of that data.

And No - 3 point percentage isn't the be all end all.

But when you dig into the data, it clearly shows the impact of Jalen shooting "league average or better" (.364) as the team won 60% of those contests going 18-12 Vs when he shoots .333 or below 24-28 (there were NO games where he shot between .364 and .333) which is a winning percentage of .461.


Either way, 52 games shooting at or below .333 from your starting 2 guard is totally uncceptable.


38 games of .250 and below.
21 games of .182 or below