Player Development: A Star in Two Years or You are a bust!

I am very okay waiting another year for more data.

I appreciate the more in-depth analysis as to how they get their points, just personally I am more concerned with production and impact, or the "what" rather than the "how" when evaluating players for contract extensions. There are plenty of players with a high unassisted FG rate that haven't panned out. I like Green and want the Rockets to give him more time, but also just being realistic. We'll just have to agree to disagree.

 

You are trying to put words in my mouth. My only claim is that you can't compare scoring efficiency between two drastically different types of players.

Green having a high unassisted rate doesn't mean he's going to "make a leap". It just means in context his role is completely different and it's a major factor in comparing efficiency.


You compare the efficiency of Ant and Green and see Ant has a higher efficiency on higher volume and it's obvious that he's better because they have the same role in self creation.

You can't do the same with Vasell.

 

Jalen is going into his 5th year as a pro - is he a star, yet? How much more time does he need?

DD

 

Well, I just disagree with your claim that you can't compare the two players. There are lots of different types of players that have a similar net impact to their team. The unassisted FG% rate is not enough to convince me that Vassell isn't a better shooter at this stage in their careers, sorry.

 

I mean that's cool and all but it seems like you are declaring a matter of fact statement just from fg% and 3pt%.

If you don't agree with the context I'm bringing up that's fair but what are you bringing? Are you avoiding their form then?

 

I think it's reasonable to say that there are simply too many deficiencies in Jalen Green's game right now to project him getting to franchise-carrying superstar outside of some unprecedented growth. It is very hard to get better at everything simultaneously, and it's harder to perceive it happening over time. It's a lot easier to point at one carrying skill becoming elite over a summer, and that being the reason that someone is special. When someone slowly brings up the floor on all of their worst traits over time, it can definitely feel harder to buy into the overall package as being a really good player by being above average at everything. If Jabari Smith becomes a future build-around piece, it's going to be quiet background development into someone with very few weaknesses, rather than the extremely loud strengths and vulnerabilities that Paolo and Chet are showing now.

Personally, when looking back at the all-star rosters of the past couple years, I was actually surprised to see how common a 3rd year dip/leveling out in production was for a lot of guards and wings, before a 4th year breakout. Obviously there's a lot of survivorship bias, and the overwhelming likelihood is that a player who does not markedly improve in Y3 is simply not that good. And most of the all-star caliber players were able to put together a full season of play garnering MIP consideration before their production blips/level-offs, rather than Jalen's one month of hot shooting.

Still, it demonstrates that development is not strictly linear, and simply getting better every single year at everything is actually quite rare. One thing we really underrate Harden for was that he essentially got better for 10 straight years, excepting that 2016 season where he got punished for the YouTube "defensive highlights" video.

Surface stats only here, but just looking at All-Stars from the past 4 years, here are all the guards and wings who had some kind of statistical drop-off/leveling out in Y3, before a second breakout continued their ascension:

DeMar DeRozan
Jaylen Brown
Jimmy Butler
Bradley Beal
Mike Conley
Jrue Holliday
Kemba Walker
Andrew Wiggins* (fell off in his 4th year rather than 3rd)

Again, it's not a guarantee that Jalen is like these guys, because odds are against anyone being like these guys. But if someday Green is a future cornerstone for the Rockets (or for another team), I do not think his trajectory will look all that strange statistically when compared to some of his contemporaries.

 

I do love the "just because the numbers say he's one of the worst shooters in the league doesn't mean he's not an amazing shooter" rhetoric by the Jalen fanbois.

Classic.

 

Everybody develops at different pace, but of course the anti greens will ignore how drastically different green has look his first year to his third and just sprout ts% and regurgitate poor box scores so of course they would b doubtful.

I'm quite confident if we had ime for 3 years green trajectory would b trending alot higher but of course the anti greenies will ignore how negative of an impact faux pg kpj and silas has on our team.

And the 3 year arbitrary deadline is hogwash, we kept kpj longer and he was a$$ at pg yet we had kpj stans hyping him up.

It's really all depends on the team environment on if a talented player can take it to the next level, and u can bet your @$$ any young player even sga that's has silas as their hc will never reach their full potential no matter what booby says.

 

It just seems really obvious when watching both of them play in addition to the rather large discrepancy in 3pt FG%. I never brought up raw FG%.

Also, Jalen's 3pt % on open 3s is not very good. His shot clearly needs some work.

 

If winning in the playoffs is your goal, then your best player needs to be better than their best player. Certainly Jalen's gotten better over time, but I still find it hard to imagine him becoming a better player than the top guard on the teams that were ahead of the Rockets this year: Ant, Shai, Murray, Luka, Booker are all likely to stay better than him unless he makes a surprising jump. He's somewhere close to Paul George, Steph, and Fox, and clearly ahead of only Austin Reaves and CJ McCollum.

 

The 3 year thing is an interesting data point but nothing more. It’s meaningless when it comes to projecting any one individual player. Jalen was clearly better in year 3. There were lower lows because he actually got benched when he deserved it but he also was amongst the best players in the NBA for a month during a playoff push. The Rockets can just let next season play out.

 

I am not familiar with SG's shooting stats so I won't comment there ....

But the FACT is that Jalen got a hell of a lot of open / wide open shots in Silas offense, and he shot less than 30% on those open / wide open shots - He was worse this year with Udoka.

A shooting guard making less than league average on OPEN shots is terrible no matter who the coach is.

Then there's the catch and shoot numbers where he is again, poor. Statistically, these are the shots made at the highest rate across the league while Jalen is hovering around .300

 

If we look at SGA's 3rd season stats, he was shooting 43.2% on his catch and shoot 3's and he was hitting 41.6% of his wide open 3's....something like 38% of his combined open and wide open 3's.

Compare that to Jalen's 3rd season where he shot 31.6% on catch and shoot 3's and he hit 33.5% of his wide open 3's and 34.9% of his combined open and wide open 3's.

 

Sure, guys develop at different timelines but the great ones, I don’t need 7 years to see if they’re good.

Jalen Green is not the first rookie, first player ever to go to a bad team, a bad organization, a bad coach with less than ideal circumstances.

Spoiler

Luka is being coached by Jason Kidd
Giannis had Larry Drew and Jason Kidd
Embiid had Brett Brown
Curry had Keith Smart and Mark Jackson
Durant had PJ Carlesimo and Scott Brooks
Harden had Scott Brooks and Kevin McHale
Booker had Jeff Hornacek, Earl Watson and Igor Kokoskov
LeBron had Paul Silas, Mike Brown and David Blatt
Edwards had Ryan Saunders
Towns had Sam Mitchell and Ryan Saunders
Ingram & Haliburton had Luke Walton
Kyrie had Byron Scott and Mike Brown

“I wOuLd LiTeRaLlY tAkE AlL ThOsE cOacHeS oVeR SiLaS! WOrSt CoAcH eVeR! NoT eVeN HaKeEm, JoRdAn or LeBrOn cOulD sUcCeEd wItH hiM!”

**** him, **** the Spurs, I hope they both fail but I didn’t need 5 years to see Wembanyama is great.
Didn’t need 5 years to see Paolo Banchero is a good player.
Didn’t need 5 years to see Anthony Edwards is a good player.
Didn’t need 5 years to see Haliburton go from Sacramento to Indiana and make an immediate impact.
Golden State didn’t need 5 years to see this James Wiseman experiment probably isn’t gonna work.
Didn’t need 5 years to see Zion and Ja were going to be good. (*Health permitting; Ja with some off court issues but no one questions the talent)
Sacramento didn’t need 5 years to see this Marvin Bagley experiment isn’t gonna work.
Didn’t need 5 years to see Luka and Trae were gonna be good.
Philadelphia didn’t need 5 years to see the Markelle Fultz experiment through.
Didn’t need 5 years to see if Jayson Tatum and Donovan Mitchell would work out.
Didn’t need 5 years for Harden to go from sixth man to MVP caliber the very next season
On and on and on. You get the point.

Yes, there are ‘outliers’ or guys outside of the first 3-4 years. (Beal, LaVine, Brown, Fox, Brunson, Booker, Curry, Shai, etc.)

 

Spoiler

These are The Ringer’s Top 100 players

Nikola Jokic (41st pick)
•3rd in ROY
•By 4th year, 4th in MVP, all-star, 1st team all-NBA

Luka Doncic (3rd pick)
•1st in ROY
•By 2nd year, 4th in MVP, all-star, 1st team all-NBA

Giannis Antetokounmpo (15th pick)
•7th in ROY
•By 3rd year, 3rd in MIP
•By 4th year, 7th in MVP, all-star, MIP, 2nd team all-NBA, 2nd team all-defensive

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (11th pick)
•6th in ROY
•By 5th year, 5th in MVP, all-star, 1st team all-NBA
•Traded after first year

Joel Embiid (3rd pick)
•Missed first 2 seasons
•By 2nd year playing, 2nd team all-NBA, all-star, 2nd in DPOY, 2nd team all-defensive

Kawhi Leonard (15th pick)
•4th in ROY
•By 3rd year, NBA Finals MVP, 2nd team all-defensive

Jayson Tatum (3rd pick)
•3rd in ROY
•By 3rd year, 12th in MVP, all-star, 3rd team all-NBA

Stephen Curry (7th pick)
•2nd in ROY
•Injured 3rd year (just 26 games)
•By 4th year, 11th in MVP
•By 5th year, 6th in MVP, all-star, 2nd team all-NBA

Kevin Durant (2nd pick)
•1st in ROY
•By 3rd year, 2nd in MVP, all-star, 1st team all-NBA

Anthony Davis (1st pick)
•2nd in ROY
•By 2nd year, all-star, 8th in DPOY
•By 3rd year, 5th in MVP, all-star, 4th in DPOY, 1st team all-NBA, 2nd team all-defensive

Devin Booker (13th pick)
•4th in ROY
•By 5th year, all-star

LeBron James (1st pick)
•1st in ROY; 9th in MVP
•By 2nd year, 6th in MVP, all-star, 2nd team all-NBA

Jalen Brunson (33rd pick)
•By 3rd year, 4th in Sixth Man
•By 4th year, 11th in MIP
•By 5th year, 12th in MVP
•By 6th year, all-star

Anthony Edwards (1st pick)
•2nd in ROY
•By 3rd year, all-star

Jimmy Butler (30th pick)
•By 3rd year, 2nd team all-defensive
•By 4th year, all-star, 2nd team all-defensive, Most Improved

Victor Wembanyama (1st pick)
•1st in ROY, 2nd in DPOY (probably all-defensive team as well)

Tyrese Haliburton (12th pick)
•3rd in ROY
•By 3rd year, all-star, 6th in MIP
•Traded during 2nd year

Jamal Murray (7th pick)
•5th in ROY
•No all-star games or accolades; NBA champion

Donovan Mitchell (13th pick)
•2nd in ROY
•By 3rd year, all-star

Zion Williamson (1st pick)
•3rd in ROY
•By 2nd year, all-star, 9th in MIP

Paul George (10th pick)
•By 3rd year, all-star, most improved, 3rd team all-NBA, 2nd team all-defensive

De’Aaron Fox (5th pick)
•By 2nd year, 3rd in MIP
•By 6th year, all-star, 3rd team all-NBA, 11th in MVP

Bam Adebayo (14th pick)
•By 3rd year, all-star, 2nd team all-defensive, 5th in DPOY

Domantis Sabonis (11th pick)
•By 3rd year, 2nd in Sixth Man, 6th in MIP
•By 4th year, all-star
•Traded after first year

Jaylen Brown (3rd pick)
•8th in ROY
•By 2nd year, 7th in MIP, 10th in DPOY
•By 5th year, all-star

Damian Lillard (6th pick)
•ROY
•By 2nd year, all-star, 3rd team all-NBA

Karl-Anthony Towns (1st pick)
•ROY
•By 3rd year, all-star, 3rd team all-NBA

Lauri Markkanen (7th pick)
•By 6th year, (lone) all-star, most improved
•Traded after 4th year

Brandon Ingram (2nd pick)
•By 4th year, (lone) all-star, most improved
•Traded after 3rd year

Kyrie Irving (1st pick)
•ROY
•By 2nd year, all-star
•By 4th year, all-star, 3rd team all-NBA

Ja Morant (2nd pick)
•ROY
•By 3rd year, all-star, most improved, 2nd team all-NBA, 7th in MVP

Tyrese Maxey (21st pick)
•By 2nd year, 6th in MIP
•By 4th year, all-star, most improved

Paolo Banchero (1st pick)
•ROY
•By 2nd year, all-star

Rudy Gobert (27th pick)
•By 2nd year, 5th in DPOY, 3rd in MIP
•By 4th year, 2nd team all-NBA, 1st team all-defensive, 2nd in DPOY

Trae Young (5th pick)
•2nd in ROY
•By 2nd year, all-star
•By 4th year, all-star, 3rd team all-NBA

Scottie Barnes (4th pick)
•ROY
•By 3rd year, all-star

Jalen Williams (12th pick)
•2nd in ROY
•By 2nd year, 4th in MIP

James Harden (3rd pick)
•By 3rd year, Sixth Man
•By 4th year, all-star, 3rd team all-NBA, 8th in MVP
•Traded after 3rd year

Kristaps Porzingis (4th pick)
•2nd in ROY
•By 3rd year, (lone) all-star
•Traded during 4th year

Pascal Siakam (27th pick)
•By 3rd year, most improved
•By 4th year, all-star, 2nd team all-NBA, 10th in MVP

Chet Holmgren (2nd pick)
•2nd in ROY

Derrick White (29th pick)
•By 8th year, 2nd team all-defensive

Alperen Sengun (16th pick)
•By 3rd year, 3rd in MIP

Julius Randle (7th pick)
•By 4th year, 5th in MIP
•By 7th year, most improved, all-star, 2nd team all-NBA, 8th in MVP

Jaren Jackson Jr. (4th pick)
•4th in ROY
•By 4th year, 1st team all-defensive, 5th in DPOY
•By 5th year, 1st team all-defensive, DPOY, all-star

Desmond Bane (30th pick)
•By 2nd year, 5th in MIP

Jrue Holiday (17th pick)
•By 2nd year, 9th in MIP
•By 4th year, all-star

Jarrett Allen (22nd pick)
•By 2nd year, 9th in DPOY
•By 7th year, (lone) all-star
•Traded during 4th year

Demar DeRozan (9th pick)
•By 2nd year, 13th in MIP
•By 5th year, all-star

Draymond Green (35th pick)
•By 3rd year, 1st team all-defensive, 2nd in DPOY/MIP
•By 4th year, 1st team all-defensive, 2nd in DPOY, 7th in MIP, all-star, 2nd team all-NBA, 7th in MVP

Darius Garland (5th pick)
•By 2nd year, 10th in MIP
•By 3rd year, (lone) all-star, 3rd in MIP

Mikal Bridges (10th pick)
•By 4th year, 1st team all-defensive, 2nd in DPOY

Dejounte Murray (29th pick)
•By 2nd year, 2nd team all-defensive
•By 6th year, (lone) all-star

OG Anunoby (23rd pick)
•By 6th year, 2nd team all-defensive, 7th in DPOY
•NBA Champion

Franz Wagner (8th pick)
•5th in ROY

LaMelo Ball (3rd pick)
•ROY
•By 2nd year, (lone) all-star

Aaron Gordon (4th pick)
•NBA Champion

Cade Cunningham (1st pick)
•3rd in ROY

Evan Mobley (3rd pick)
•2nd in ROY
•By 2nd year, 1st team all-defensive, 3rd in DPOY

Khris Middleton (39th pick)
•By 7th year, all-star
•Traded after first year

Fred VanVleet (undrafted)
•By 2nd year, 3rd in sixth man
•By 6th year, (lone) all-star

Brook Lopez (10th pick)
•3rd in ROY
•By 5th year, (lone) all-star

Michael Porter Jr. (14th pick)
•Missed first season
•By 2nd season playing, 3rd in MIP

CJ McCollum (10th pick)
•By 3rd year, most improved

Bradley Beal (3rd pick)
•3rd in ROY
•By 6th year, all-star
•By 9th year, 3rd team all-NBA, all-star

Jalen Green (2nd pick)
•4th in ROY

Coby White (7th pick)
•5th in ROY
•By 5th year, 2nd in MIP

Alex Caruso (undrafted)
•By 6th year, 1st team all-defensive

Herb Jones (35th pick)
•6th in ROY

Jerami Grant (39th pick)
•No awards or accolades
•Traded during 3rd year

Jalen Johnson (20th pick)
•No awards or accolades

Anfernee Simons (24th pick)
•By 4th year, 8th in MIP

Jaden McDaniels (28th pick)
•No awards or accolades

Jalen Suggs (5th pick)
•By 3rd year, 8th in MIP

Devin Vassell (11th pick)
•No awards or accolades

Tyler Herro (13th pick)
•By 3rd year, Sixth Man of Year

Austin Reaves (undrafted)
•No awards or accolades

Zach LaVine (13th pick)
•By 7th year, all-star
•Traded after 3rd year

Naz Reid (undrafted)
•By 5th year, Sixth Man of Year

Myles Turner (11th pick)
•8th in ROY
•By 4th year, 5th in DPOY

Jonathan Kuminga (7th pick)
•NBA Champion

Dillon Brooks (45th pick)
•By 6th year, 2nd team all-defensive

D'Angelo Russell (2nd pick)
•9th in ROY
•By 4th year, (lone) all-star
•Traded after 2nd year

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (8th pick)
•2x NBA Champion

Kyle Kuzma (27th pick)
•4th in ROY
•Traded after 4th year

Trey Murphy III (17th pick)
•By 2nd year, 7th in MIP

Marcus Smart (6th pick)
•5th in ROY
•By 5th year, 1st team all-defensive, 8th in DPOY

Immanuel Quickley (25th pick)
•By 3rd year, 2nd in Sixth Man
•Traded during 4th year

Norm Powell (46th pick)
•NBA Champion
•Traded during 6th year

Tobias Harris (19th pick)
•No awards or accolades
•Traded during 2nd year

Malcolm Brogdon (36th pick)
•ROY
•By 7th year, Sixth Man of Year
•Traded after 3rd year

RJ Barrett (3rd pick)
•8th in ROY
•Traded during 5th year

Jabari Smith Jr. (3rd pick)
•No awards or accolades

Mike Conley (4th pick)
•8th in ROY
•By 6th year, 2nd team all-defensive
•By 14th year, (lone) all-star

Nic Claxton (31st pick)
•By 4th year, 5th in MIP, 9th in DPOY

Collin Sexton (8th pick)
•5th in ROY
•Traded after 4th year

Terry Rozier (16th pick)
•No awards or accolades
•Traded after 4th year

Isaiah Hartenstein (43rd pick)
•No awards or accolades
•Waived after 2nd year

Brandon Miller (2nd pick)
•3rd in ROY

Grayson Allen (21st pick)
•No awards or accolades
•Traded after first year

Forget all those guys. Just compare Jalen, Jabari to guys in their draft classes? Are they on par? Better? Worse?

 

Jalen Green is 37th in his draft class in WS/48, 18th in overall win shares, 27th in BPM, 17th in VORP, 22nd in 3pt %....but he has logged the 3rd most minutes in his draft class.

Sengun is 11th in his draft class in WS/48, 6th in overall win shares, 3rd in BPM, 3rd in VORP, 42nd in 3pt % and he's logged the 9th most minutes

Jabari is 20th in his draft class in WS/48, 7th in overall win shares, 19th in BPM, 19th in VORP, 25th in 3pt % and he's logged the 3rd most minutes.

Tari is 18th in his draft class in WS/48, 12th in overall win shares (which is a compilation metric influenced by playing time), 13th in BPM, 10th in VORP, 21st in 3 point %.....and sadly he only has the 19th most minutes played because he stopped existing.

Put all of that together, I think you can make the case that Jabari is a top 10 player in his draft class and Jalen is top 20 in his draft class. There's also a VERY solid case that both Sengun and Tari are the best players the Rockets drafted in their respective draft classes.

It's a little too soon to look at 2023, but for completeness.....

Amen is 4th in WS/48, 3rd in overall win shares, 4th in BPM, 3rd in VORP, 44th in 3 point %, and he's logged the 11th most minutes.

Cam is 14th in WS/48, 11th in overall win shares, 8th in BPM, 7th in VORP, 16th in 3 point %, and he's logged the 20th most minutes

 

I don't think there is one "you need to be a star by X date" marker. It's different for different players and there are a lot of different factors which affect it, ranging from, what age did the guy come into the league, what position does he play, what is his skillset and physical profile, etc.

However, you do want to see signs of progress and improvement over time. It's rare for a player to tread water and basically be the same guy for multiple years running, then suddenly break out and become far better in one offseason. That's not to say it never happens, it's just really uncommon.

 

I voted "none of the above"

Factors:
*Team/staff development.......not all coaches/personnel are created equal
*Coaches scheme(s) on offense and on defense....teams often pick BPA but some players don't
fit all systems. Forcing a square peg into a round hole, can waste years.
*Player mental maturity...some players are more immature and don't take job as seriously
*Player physical maturity....some players look older like Embiid, Greg Oden
*Team Tanking purposefully, team aggressively trying to win
*Vets in the way to build "trade value" matter of USG% or playing time
______________
Players still hitting their peak on average age of 27 years.

I expect players to show great strides by age 23-24.....master things for peak age 27.


Players today eat better and rebound from game activities better due to better
conditioning, master video technology at earlier ages, study and learn from said
new video edge technology.

Unfortunately high school and AAU coaches are not teaching enough detailed skills
and techniques. Kids not spending enough time in college forces NBA teams to
often be the start of a kids learning curve.

Example: Michael Jordan spent 3 years in college with Dean Smith and learned the basic
fundamentals of defense while Jalen Green probably has never been taught the fundamentals
of defense from Highschool coaches and Brian Shaw /coaches with team ignite.

 

Every game played that is anything less than a HOF worthy performance isn't even worth my, a casual basketball fan, time.

Year 1, year 20 anything less than a HOF worthy performance means I'm going to dogcurse the player's mother for birthing such an absolute waste of basketball jersey material.

 

Part of the reason the percentage of Jalen’s self creation points is higher is because he’s been so awful at hitting his shots when set up by someone else.