Sacks has this fantasy of a forever war. But like the war mongers, Sacks is holding two opposing views simultaneously. On one hand, he believes Ukraine will run out of soldiers. On the other, he thinks this will go on forever.
It doesn't mean the US will cut it's losses anytime soon. Trump engineered the pullout of Afghanistan with some hard to reverse commitments. Doing the same here would extend the fighting beyond this year. I'd imagine this is as important for NATO as it is for Ukraine. That reallifelore vid posted earlier comes to mind.
NATO has moved troops to every NATO country bordering Russia, something that may not have been true prior to Putin's massive invasion of democratic Ukraine, but is certainly true today. They are in the small Baltic states as a trip wire, knowing that they couldn't hold off a Russian invasion of those tiny countries, but leaving Russia knowing that there would be a massive response from NATO if that were to occur, a NATO that has Russia outmatched. If the Baltic countries weren't members of NATO, Putin would have attacked them already. The threat to the Baltic states from Putin is real, with NATO being the one thing preventing Russia's attack on those democratic countries, in my opinion. NATO and NATO's far more powerful military. An important component of NATO's deterrence and defence posture is its military presence in the eastern part of Alliance territory. In recent years, Allies have enhanced NATO's forward presence by establishing multinational battlegroups in Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. Dec 8, 2023 https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_136388.htm#:~:text=An important component of NATO's,, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. Putin's invasion of Ukraine has given him Sweden and Finland joining NATO, Sweden having a military more powerful than their size would indicate to the uninformed, with Finland's military geared to defend their country, which has always been their task, both before and after Putin's latest effort to recreate the Soviet Union, with Finland busy becoming more powerful thanks to Putin's madness. As for those NATO capitals? I wouldn't lose any sleep worrying about them. The statistics below are numbers Putin is very aware of. The dictator's strongest weapon against NATO isn't his military. It is his propaganda. In other words, Putin's mouth. We see the results of Putin's propaganda right here in this forum. NATO and Russia Militaries as of 2024: - Total military personnel 7,628,782 - NATO Russia - 3,570,000 - Armies/Army - - Active soldiers 3,390,797 - NATO Russia - 1,320,000 - Reserve forces 3,440,165 - NATO Russia - 2,000,000 - Paramilitary units 797,820 - NATO Russia - 250,000 - Air Force - Total aircraft 22,308 - NATO Russia - 4,814 - Fighters/Interceptors 3,275 - NATO Russia - 809 - Ground attack aircraft 1,195 - NATO Russia - 730 - Transport aircraft 1,493 - NATO Russia - 453 - Special aircraft (e.g. reconnaissance) 931 - NATO Russia - 145 - Tanker aircraft 655 - NATO Russia - 19 - Total helicopters 8,950 - NATO Russia - 1,547 - Combat helicopters 1460 - NATO Russia - 559 - Navy - Total military ships 2,258 - NATO Russia - 781 - Destroyers 95 - NATO Russia - 14 - Frigates 134 - NATO Russia - 12 - Corvettes 57 - NATO Russia - 83 - Helicopter Carriers 13 - NATO Russia - 0 - Aircraft carriers 16 - NATO Russia - 1 (out of service and in repairs since 2018) - Submarines 139 - NATO Russia - 65 - Patrol Boats 323 - NATO Russia - 122 - Minesweepers 151 - NATO Russia - 47 https://www.statista.com/statistics/1293174/nato-russia-military-comparison/
Its mostly capitals in Latvia or Estonia that are losing sleep over Russian aggression. Poland isnt waiting to find out what happens when Putin ****s around more. I agree it wouldn't be too much an issue to discuss if it weren't for Trump's campaign posturing to pull out of NATO if other nations dont pay up. Those numbers posted deflate without an American presence and could cause fractures from a prolonged conflict/occupation. The premise goes that if Putin Shocks and Awe 2.0, from lessons/military learned/gained from Kiev, before a clear and cogent international response is given, then the current calculus (Spaniel's Lines on Maps) would dramatically shift from a unified posture into individual debates with more domestic influence on whether it's worth going into a direct conflict with a nuclear power. Most of Europe is not ready for a prolonged great power conflict. Their supply chains are non existent and many of the numbers you listed are dated or undermanned/underexperienced. Many of the heavy hitting nations are deeply indebted. Among all of them, Poland would be among our most relevant ally in the conflict (Remember Poland!). By dividing and conquering (making further inroads beyond Hungary), then propaganda becomes more a decisive factor, especially when Trump has already seeded into our allies heads that America is flighty and bipolar, with whims that can flip inless than four years. I'm not dismissing your counterpoint, though the issue is a good point for debate in the current context.
Not just Europe but the world isn’t prepared for a major power conflict. A war between NATO Russia, US PRC, etc. would at the minimum be devastating to the global economy and could lead to the end of civilization. This goes back to why beyond any humanitarian reason to support Ukraine. It is message of deterrence to not just Russia but the PRC and other great powers with expansionist aims.
Almost certainly would end civilization as we know it. The nuclear holocaust is a real threat. And I strongly doubt we will be able to rebuild back to our technology today if it happens because all the easily accessible ores and oil have been tapped. We will fall back to a Stone Age society.
Is Estonia or Latvia worth tipping the Doomsday Clock to milliseconds? Trump will win points on this one as most Americans don't want to find out either. Proxy War,,, sure why not, the Ukranians are giving it their all. Triggering Article 5...uhh, is it really necessary todo our best to take it back? The Reds are dug in pretty deep and they all already speak Russian.
I am Ready.gov https://www.ready.gov/sites/default/files/2024-03/ready.gov_nuclear-explosion-hazard-info-sheet.pdf
Lots of news recently about Ukraines man power problems and how the State is shutting off consular services to fighting age men living abroad. D&D will ignore this problem like usual though.
I think it's pretty fantastical to believe Putin is going to open up a second front against even better prepared NATO members given the overall strategic disaster of his 3 day war in Ukraine that is now in year 3, and frankly it's just dumb propaganda intended for Russian domestic consumption -but it wouldn't end well for him if he did
