Didn't see a thread on this, and sort of felt like how can this not exist right now. Cannot continue to put him out there and start games. Got to move him to relief or option and back down to figure it out.
His position on the roster has to be in a precarious position at this point. Arrighetti's ERA looks terrible, but his peripherals look a ton better so far. Brown will be unavailable for the next 4 games, and he likely won't be scheduled to start again until the Yankee's series roughly a week from now. France should be eligible to come back up that same series. It would seem calling up an extra arm to take his place would be the prudent move. Maybe the Astros think they can get him into a low leverage situation to get his confidence back up, but it seems like a reset in AAA is what he really needs. I can't say sending him to the pen is a great option given how much he's struggling in his first inning.
Brown has had some bad luck and some bad fielding support. His underlying numbers are not great but they’re not nearly as bad as his era indicates. His career xFIP is still extremely good at 3.51. Brown, Arrighetti, France, and Javier all have k:bb rates around 2:1; Brown and France have much higher HR rates, and Brown and Arrighetti have much higher BABIP. But unfortunately Brown is looking more like he will be an erratic #4 rather than a top of the rotation arm. With Javier coming back this week and Urquidy set to come back soon, Brown is unlikely to be in the rotation much longer unless he really turns it around. I assume they will send him down to AAA rather than to the pen because they need their best extra arms stretched out in case somebody gets hurt. I would imagine that if Arrighetti looks good in his next start he will stay in the rotation over Brown when Javier comes back. Brown is only 25. There’s still plenty of room for optimism. It’s just that there’s no room for a young SP to struggle on a team that is supposed to contend but is losing a lot.
His stuff is too good to stay in AAA for long. Maybe some kind of tandem with him being the 2nd arm. As a reliever, he has been outstanding in a small sample size.
Hunter: 3rd in ER allowed in the majors, ERA of 9.78, folks hitting 0.366 against him The Hunter has become the Hunted
Very much agree with this, he’s got innings that he looks like he is in complete control, and then he just hits a wall; generally a timely hit, a unfortunate walk after losing another battle with a batter, a bloop single, etc…. And then it seems he gets self conscious and he will give up a run via a home run or a timely extra base hit to the next batter. I remember hearing experts say that Hunter Browns future was going to be in the bullpen, and I’m starting to think that is where he will earn his bread and butter. He’s good, but his arsenal isn’t good enough to sustain for 3 times through a lineup. Maybe if he was a reliever where he could pitch without having to worry about saving gas for the next 5 innings, and he may be more effective.
He throws way too many non competitive pitches, miles outside of the zone, even in non disaster innings. He then overcorrects by throwing stuff middle middle to get back into the count, which gets him pummeled. This also has the effect of him not getting close calls from the umpire. He either has mechanical problems, is a headcase or has focus issues, or more than one of these issues at the same time. He does not seem to be a forrest Whitley million dollar arm, ten cent head. But something is missing. Perhaps he needs to see Frambers sports psychologist.
Hunter is the most disappointing Astro thus far this season. More than Jabreu, with his Guiness record-setting suckage. Starters who average <4 innings is a negative chain reaction throughout the entire staff.
Starters that consistently deplete the bullpen are a recipe for team disaster. Every starter is expected to have a bad start here or there, but having taxing outings time after time each time he gets in the mound is unsustainable. The bullpen getting overworked and out of commission for games because of it, negates any strategic use of it being managed by the coach effectively. Hader, Pressley, and Abreu have been rocked to start the season. But part of it could be that the poor starts by the starters have compounded the strategy. The good news is that Verlander, Valdez, Javier, Blanco look like a formidable unit, and is healthy. Also seems that Urquidy isn’t too far behind. But Hunter Brown needs to either figure out if he’s tipping his pitches or he’s unable to make adjustments.
I actually was encouraged by his outing last night. 1) got unlucky with a groundball single that had .220 expected BA and a HR with .090 expected BA that is a fly out in every other park. 1st could easily have been scoreless. 2) pitched 4 consecutive perfect innings w/ 5 Ks throwing only 54 pitches. 2nd-5th innings. 3) should have been in the dugout enjoying the successful outing or at very least taken out after Kwan's triple in the 6th. The bullpen was fully rested and Hunter was in desperate need of a positive outing to build on. Espada crapped all over that
Considering his tendency to get blown up in the first inning, does that really bode well to come out of the bullpen? At least when he goes 5 IP he has a chance to limit the damage, but if he comes out the pen doesn't that open the door for him to pitch one inning, get lit up, and have it occur later in the game when there are less innings to catch up? I think the answer is when we finally have enough arms he goes back to SL to work on his game, like they are doing with France.
That very well may be the best thing. But as a RP he can focus on his 2 best pitches in order to dominate 3-5 batters. That's totally different than establishing and commanding 4+ pitches to see hitters multiple times and get through 5+ innings. Also, I don't think France was sent to AAA to work on his game. He was sent there because he is Brandon Bielak 2.0 and needs to be ready and stretched out if an injury to a real MLB starter requires the team to start him.
It’s a different dynamic. First, in relief he won’t automatically be coming in to face the other teams best hitters, like he is in the first inning of every start. Also, knowing he will only be asked to throw 30 pitches or less, he might be able to put more into each pitch; it’s fairly common for guys to throw 1-2 mph harder out of the pen vs starting. None of that is a guarantee, but Brown was very effective in relief when he has done it previously.
