So, where's everyone at with Jalen going into next year?

It is interesting though, if you look at the total hit to the team when Jalen is on the court vs when he is off, it's -4.7...3rd worst on the team among players who played at least 100 minutes this season behind only Reggie Bullock and Jabari Smith.

While the offense did have a higher rating when Jalen was on the court compared to when he was off the court (115.7 vs 113.6) the opposing team had a higher offensive rate when Jalen was on the court than the Rockets offensive rating when Jalen was on the court(115.7 for the Rockets, 116.2 for the opposing team)....meaning that it was a net negative.

Now factor in that the Rockets held opponents to a 109.4 offensive rating when Jalen was on the bench....the 113.6 offensive rating when Jalen was on the bench looks much better.

In short, Jalen was once again a net negative for the Rockets when he was on the court and the bench guys who replaced him were much better defensively leading to a +4.2 net rating when Jalen was on the bench vs the -0.5 net rating when he was on the court.


Of course, I'm sure you knew this, because I'm sure I've told you it in the past, but yet again you just pretend it's not the case to push your false narrative.

 

Sengun was a net negative

https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4879/onoff#tab-team_efficiency


Jabari was the worst of the starters in terms of on/off impact.

All our young guys need to improve. He only ones who had a net positive out of the young guys came off the bench where it's easier to have a positive on/off impact as you aren't aligned with the opposing starters who have their stars and superstars.

 

Bobby I've decided to engage with you. I've missed a lot of your content. Can you wax lyrical some more on Jalen Green and his suckage. I feel like you don't express yourself enough on this matter.

 

Sure, and part of that was that he logged 1600 minutes of his 2000 minutes this season playing next to Jalen, another part is that Sengun struggled on defense this season.

Attacking another player doesn't make Jalen any better.

It's actually easier to have a better on/off when you are with the starters because being next to better players will increase your numbers, teams can often hide one or two bad players....unless you do so poorly that you drag down the numbers of the other starters enough to appear worse than the bench which is what happened with Jalen last season.

Incidentally, that's why he kept getting benched at the end of games in favor of rookie bench players. They simply gave the team a better chance of winning.

 

Looking at the on/off numbers it looked to me like Senguns numbers suffered mainly because Jock was like our best net rating player this year.

 

I would argue that a bigger issue was the lack of shooting when he was out there with Jalen and Dillon Brooks.

That starting unit just doesn't fit very well with one another. You can have FVV and Sengun to pass to open shooters....but if those open shooters are DIllon Brooks or Jalen Green....I mean, you might as well just hand the ball to the other team.

That's why I'm hoping Cam Whitmore solidifies some of his game and gets more time with the starters. Having someone out there who can actually shoot would really help Sengun.

 

I didn't ignore it at all, it was the very first sentence in my very first reply to you. Please don't make ad hominem attacks, that's really pointless especially with someone who is taking you seriously.

In case you missed it: projecting his first two years to be definitive of the rest of his career is a mistake. That's something me and Ime Udoka agree on. His percentage is low largely because he's an average shooter who's taking twice the attempts an average shooter should take. If he took 4 attempts, he would be hitting league average all 3 years and then would you be happy? Why would you be happy with that but not his current stats since it's the exact same player just with a different shot diet?

If you can't see that Jalen Green got better under Udoka just because his 3PT shot didn't get better, I don't know what to tell you. He improved every single other thing. Defense, rebounding, passing, more consistent effort and even finishing at the rim. You can't improve everything in 1 month under a great coach, that's not a reasonable expectation. If he took 1 month to improve one thing at a time is that too much for you after the organization did f*ck all for a player who desperately needed them for TWO YEARS? He improved everything and in the final month of the season improved his 3PT shooting as well. I understand you're skeptical because of the order in which these things happened, but that doesn't make it reasonable to say he didn't improve when he improved like 70-80% of all things a player does in a basketball game. Defense is half of basketball, that's 50% of his game improved. Finishing and passing is easily half of offense if not more.

If he only improved his 3PT shot people would be whining about his overall game. So no matter what, if it took one thing till towards the end of the season to improve (let's say defense for example), people would have been skeptical that it would carry over. So there's no winning with some people. It must be Jalen's fault we drafted a guy who desperately and urgently needed to be developed all around - moreso than anyone else we drafted since he was essentially a HS player - and then we gave him the worst development environment anyone can imagine where no one improved. A worse development environment than any other tanking team - fewer vets, worse coach, worse PG, the GM is dictating practices and refusing to bring on any mentors. Now we should be angry that when we gave him a good coach he didn't improve every single thing in less than 4 months? We should be mad he prioritized defense, passing and rebounding before 3PT shooting? Again you can be skeptical of his late season offensive improvement that impressed the HC, but please don't sit here and tell us Jalen Green has sucked for 3 years and there's no possible explanation for it except that he will suck for good.

It's just you guys holding onto something that's over. Let it go. You can let it go now and be vindicated early next season. The only other alternative is he's going to make you eat crow for doubting him.

"It's a no-brainer that they can mesh"
- Ime Udoka

Listen carefully to Ime dreaming about what's possible for these two bro:



Feel free to be cynical, but the signs are not on your side unless you look at 3 years of stats without any context whatsoever. I understand if that's how you choose to see it, it will look like there's no reason to be hopeful. It doesn't surprise me in the least. I've seen way too much basketball to think things are linear and absolute like that.

 

First and foremost, for a fan that has been watching the NBA for decades, I only take GM and coach's words with a grain of salt. Second, Spectatulations and feelings are not facts. Claims must be supported by numbers. For instance, if you say his defense is better, the +/- should show that. If you say he's better at passing or facilitating, the TO ratio, the assist numbers, the FG% should show that. The 10-game stretch Green was shooting 40+% from deep, and we were 9-1 or 10-0. Why do people keep downplaying the importance of 3-pt %? Cetlics destroyed everyone with their barrage of 3s. OKC has one of the best 3P%. Miami stole one game from the Cel by hitting 50+% from 3s without Jimmy Butler in the playoff. If you take a few seconds to check the 3P% and the standing of the current NBA, you would be surprised that the correlation should never be ignored. The bottom teams are the teams with the lowest 3P%. It doesn't necessary mean you don't have to worry about defense or anything else you were mentioned in your post, but teams need to put the emphasis on the 3P% and 3P made more than ever before because the numbers don't lie, while feelings and eye tests can be deceiving. The reason is that you have an agenda to defend Jalen and you are emotionally attached to Jalen. Every of us are emotional attachments to Jalen because he was the highest draft pick we had since Yao Ming. However, we care the team's success more than any of one player on the team. If you were Jalen, you hit over 40% from 3s and your team kept rolling. Wouldn't you continue to focus on improving that in the summer? My evaluation of Jalen for next year is simple. If he comes back from the summer and shoot over the league average 3P% (.366) with a reasonable amount of 3s, he's a keeper, whether he should be offered a max depends on other stats and those eye tests you were mentioning. If not, he should let someone start over him or he should wear a different uniform after next season. A shooting guard cannot shoot is not a good shooting guard in 2024, that's the reality.

 

League average 3pt % for shooting guards is actually 37%, but I’d settle for Jalen improving from 33% to 36%.

Bari went from 30% to 36% in one season so it can definitely be done. For me Jalen has to shoot 36% from the start of the season to the trade deadline; otherwise I move him. Not letting him hit RFA where we have to choose to overpay or lose him for nothing.

 

I’m kind of worried. For months if not years, this has been one of the posters on the board that brings the most quality. He is constantly creating new threads with original ideas and content. His observations about the game are deep and meaningful.
This turn over the last couple weeks of constantly doing nothing but posting about Jaylen Green has me concerned. If it goes on for multiple months, you might have to think he is some sort of psychopath.

 

Why the insult, got nothing better to do but criticize players.

 

I'm just curious what Bari is doing in a NBA offense if he isn't hitting threes?

Breaking down and collapsing defenses?

 

Jalen Green btw according to cleaning the glass has the second highest on/off impact on offense behind only FVV.

Just so you understand.

If Sengun can be a priemsing stud to most here including me without a thee point shot, same thing with Green.

Because news flash, a dude with the speed and agility with the ball in his hands at the level of great small guard speed demons like Maxi, AI, Ja, Fox etc but at 6'6" is a special talent even if his three point shot is inconsistent just like how a center with great offensive scoring at the rim with elite passing abilities still is a special talent without a three point shot at all.

 

The thing is if Green hits the attainable 36-38%(+) of his three attempts next season he will be sure all star ... Especially if he decides to showcase his version of March Madness and 23 game stretch (to end season) this upcoming November 2024-25 and do it at least until AS break.......

How can a scrub/fluke be a consistent 3pt shot away from being in the all star/superstar realm?

All facets of the game are important, they just shoot way more 3s in this era and that influences the game more so due to the volume and media hype narratives

But the 3 ball has always been Important to teams, just go ask both sides of the 93' Finals...also while you there ask them about the M Elie ''KOD'' shot.....

33% back then was acceptable from 3...now its like at 36/37% league avg, so of course naturally you would want players to be at that % area, but you still have your Derozan/CP3/Kawhi etc who got midrange on lock and it will go back to that after Curry retires (3pt era is his invention according to BSPN.....but Mike D and even Nelson ushered it in)

It stays in waves, enjoy the latest one

If Green takes 5 threes a game you want at least 2(+) made no matter what

If Green takes 7-8 per game you want him to make at least 3

If he takes 12-14 in a game them you know he is pretty much on, but you want him to at least make 5-6 of those volume attempts

And then be on point in midrange & FT % & finishing at rim



TBD

 

brehs in this thread be writing book n shet. green is being traded for ya morant.

 

Ya Morant? Is that discount Morant?

 

it's the euro morant. probably ze german

 

Gather the Chapters and sell 'em for real Monies.

 

I expect him to:
- have a better start, more steady production on both ends of the floor
- some struggles with a more diverse offense early on
- much less mistakes, less turnovers and random losing of the ball
- more decisiveness and overall more confident
- have a defensive mindset and not worry so much about offense

I am at a point where I believe some of the things are sustainable and will carry over into next season. He's learned, Ime will continue to push him and he will get better. Not sure he's that Kobe I had thought he could be, but he's at least a 16-20 PPG guy who can play decent enough defense to be a starter.

I expect him to start, but wouldn't be surprised if he does get his minutes cut simply due to Cam progressing well and giving us more offensive output and hustle. He's not a guarantee to take the next step though, so I'm tempering expectations, but do believe in him more than I did at the beginning of this season.

 

Hey bro, welcome to the board. We've all watched basketball for decades, we all understand how stats work and we've all seen the same stats you've seen. Same for Ime Udoka btw.

1) First and foremost, you are mistaken taking all coach's words with a grain of salt. Some coaches are more cynical than others. We were all aware in the first half of the season that Udoka was just being nice about Jalen Green having a trainwreck of a start. You could see it in his face. More importantly, he approved a trade that would have sent Green out at the deadline. He doesn't f*ck around. This is VASTLY different than the HC - without being prompted - being gleeful about how well Jalen and Sengun can mesh and how much that's going to benefit us next season. Several times, he said Jalen "figured it out". That's a quote. He just wishes he had figured out the offensive side sooner. However throughout the season he repeatedly defended Jalen, praising the things he had improved (resilience, work ethic, rebounding, passing, defense). You see this coach understands defense is as important as offense, so he knows how to place value on things.

2) No one is downplaying the importance of 3PT%. We're valuing it just right. Defense is half the game. Offense is the other half. 3PT% is a sub category of offense and is not especially more important than overall scoring, finishing at the rim, FTA, assists. So let's put into context that 3PT% is a sub category of half the game. It's very important and has become more important each year, but it's not everything. If I want to get the higher net impact, I will ask a player to improve their defense rather than 3PT shooting. That's factually more impactful.

3) For a person who wants to preach about stats, you sure do seem to misunderstand them. You are flat out conflating history with facts. History is Jalen shot such and such the past 3 seasons. Saying it means he will in the future shoot such and such numbers is not a fact, it's a subjective projection. The reason for why he shot the way he did is again subjective and not a fact. History is not necessarily a lock to repeat itself. There are many factors like noisy data, external forces, teammates, leaders, improvement, etc that affect how historical trends will manifest in the future. So when your GM is knee deep in the game plan with an intent to generate losses, your PG is the worst lead playmaker in the NBA, you are taking way more shots than you're capable of making at a good rate - this makes the data very noisy and dramatically increases the chances that history will not continue in a linear fashion if those factors change. This whole phenomenon is called context btw and it's inextricable from good projections. You have to make a case other than the lazy "this is what he shot, so that's what he's going to shoot". There is a very good case to be made that the first two seasons were outliers skewed by the most intense tanking ever done in the NBA. Other than Hinkie's Sixers, do you know any other team that forced losses as much as us? So what do you think forcing losses does to individual stats? Do you think it's possible to lose 60+ games while everyone is happily efficient? It doesn't work that way. If Rafael Stone, Stephen Silas and KPJ are running a human centipede-like system, you have to take it into account and isolate the following season.

4) Improvement takes time. Jalen Green needed to improve literally everything in his game. It can not happen all at once, it just doesn't work that way. There will be a gradual climb which was delayed two years. We installed EXTRA bad habits in a HS prospect's game. Let's say hypothetically Jalen Green improved his effort in month 1, his defense in month 2, his rebounding in month 3, his finishing at the rim in month 4 and his 3pt shooting in month 5, then ran out of time to figure out passing out of double teams at the end of the season. Don't you see that if that happened (and at the moment I'm not claiming it did) your analysis would be totally incapable of capturing it because it lacks context? Your analysis would be "yeah he improved some things, but he only went on a hot streak for 3pt shooting for a month at the end and then he struggled as soon as teams started sending him double teams". For this reason, your analysis is not widely accepted. In fact, it is rapidly becoming a fringe opinion and got saved by the summer break which will allow you to imagine that it was just a streak for a few more months.

5) Yes we all agree, Jalen Green has to be more efficient from 3. Either take fewer shots to raise your % or improve your shooting mechanics. No he doesn't have to shoot them a lot or amazingly. He can follow in Morant and Fox's footsteps, take fewer of them and attack the rim more. I'm fine with either of these achievable opportunities. It should be much easier now that the coach adopted Jalen's idea that we should play faster and with more space (helped by us being forced to play Jabari at the 5). It will be much easier when - like every summer - he continues to add muscle. It will be easy for him because his PG, backup PG, HC and Player Development coach have all praised his work ethic and resilience. These are exactly the qualities of someone who improves in a good system.

See how it's possible to have context even while I factually know he shot 33% over 3 seasons and 3pters are important in the NBA?