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Jalen Green will be the Rockets' Numero Uno

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by kpdark, Jan 2, 2024.

  1. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

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    So him believing his defensive effort is more important is a sign he has bad work ethic?

    During his best start j in March he wasn't waxing lyrical about how great his offensive game is. He said that the first aspect of the game he cares about is his defensive effort and everything comes after that.

    I don't think Green has to vocally say "I need to work on my shot"

    Also for the coaching staff they could see Green's inconsistency issues with his shot is more a result of his increased effort in other aspects of the game and just playing the most minutes in the season out of any player on the team as he started all 82 games.

    They might just see his shooting issue as a conditioning issue of getting used to being a two way player and that will naturally fix itself over time when he gets used to playing with that effort.
     
  2. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

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    Bobby, dudes who aren't even that high on Green think you are unhinged.
     
  3. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist
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    You must be misremembering or misunderstanding something. Jalen's issue has always been shot selection and access to the paint. They've said it so many times.

    He made 39% of his open 3PT shots with 4-6 weeks of space. His problem is step backs from anywhere and hail mary attempts from very far out when there's no one remotely near him. This is a habit and choice problem.

    I'm sure improving mechanics can help, but even without improving his mechanics he can get to league average with a little more selectivity on 3PT shots (fewer and simpler attempts). When we open up the paint and run more, his alternative is attacking the rim rather than settling for mid range. He specifically said in his interview that he struggled with habits and still has habits he needs to kick. That covers everything. That's Ime's line, he's on and on about habits all the time. We know from every possible source that Green is a hard worker off the court and the first words he ever said to Ime were: whatever it takes to win.

    I don't want my star player thinking his development is difficult. It's actually not that difficult. He should act like he's relaxed about taking on that challenge. I think you're confusing this for not caring so much when all that's happening is he doesn't feel intimidated by it and doesn't need to squint his eyes in order to mentally take it seriously.

    Maybe the guy our HC lauded fit his resilience and mental fortitude is just not seeing it as difficult as the average person. We shouldn't dock him points for that.
     
  4. Believe It!

    Believe It! Member

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    I made my point.
     
  5. mfastx

    mfastx Member
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    I honestly haven't put as much thought into it than you have. He has a good enough work ethic to improve on several areas of his game and I'm happy about that. The stretches he had are very tantalizing and I want to give him more time to hopefully develop consistency.

    I just felt a bit cringe when I watched his exit interview. And I felt the same way during his training camp interview with Matt Thomas (I think?). He just seemed unserious and his demeanor wasn't what I typically associate with a guy who is extremely driven to be the best he can be. Maybe I'm being too harsh.

    His shot selection has been really bad but towards the second half of this season it seemed to get noticeably better. If anything, the bad games he had (like against the Jazz), it seemed like he was being very hesitant and not aggressive enough, looked like his confidence just wasn't there.

    I saw a stat that said he only shot like 31% from 3 on "wide open" attempts (no defender within 6 feet). It definitely feels that way from the eye test, teams have helped off of him on the perimeter a lot.

    Regarding his demeanor, I just saw a contrast between his interview and the other players when I watched them back to back. I'm not writing him off at all let me be clear. I'm looking forward to seeing how he improves this offseason.
     
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  6. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

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    nba.com has these numbers

    3 point % by coverage
    Very tight : 20.0% on 0.1 attempts per game
    Tight : 17.5% on 1 attempt per game
    Open : 37.6% on 3.8 attempts per game
    Wide open : 33.3% on 2.5 attempts per game

    3 point % by zone
    Left corner : 41.4% on 0.4 attempts per game
    Right corner : 34.5% on 0.4 attempts per game
    Above the break : 32.9% on 6.6 attempts per game

    3 point % on shot types
    Catch and shoot : 31.5% on 3.1 attempts per game
    Pull up : 33.7% on 4.1 attempts per game

    3 point % by time on shot clock

    22-18 seconds : 38.6% on 0.9 attempts per game
    18-15 seconds : 41.6% on 1.1 attempts per game
    15-7 seconds : 31.7% on 3.7 attempts per game
    7-4 seconds : 30.6% on 0.6 attempts per game
    4-0 seconds : 27.1% on 0.9 attempts per game
     
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  7. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist
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    Right, he's 31% on 6+ feet which pissed me off but then when I watched the games i realized that's not him missing those shots at the 3pt line. That's him being 6+ feet open because he himself is pointlessly several feet away from the 3PT line and his defender is 2 feet inside the 3PT line. These are not bail-out shots, he takes these early in the clock and he takes 1-2 of these per game (making 20 something percent of them). That's just a bad choice.

    In terms of set shots where he's 4-6 feet open, it's 39% (last i checked was before his big month).
     
    #2347 Mathloom, Apr 18, 2024
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2024
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  8. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    You didn't have one....that's why you went with an ad hom.
     
  9. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    It's basic facts killer, even if people don't like them they are still facts.
     
  10. mfastx

    mfastx Member
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    This is where I want him to improve the most. If he can increase catch and shoot to 38-39% or so that would go a long way to increasing his efficiency.

    Since he's one of the few guys on the team who can create separation for their own shot he will always have some bail out "bad" attempts at the end of the shot clock.
     
  11. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Sure, which is why I said "skills" and not "metrics"....also, it's dishonest to talk about the number of seasons when it doesn't accurately reflect the amount of NBA experience the players had at the time. You're trying to compare 137 games, in a terrible situation where one guy is contently in and out of the lineup and even the league in general with ever changing roles who was 21 at the end of the season, to a guy with 225 starts that was handed the keys to a franchise day one who was pushed ahead of everyone and anything else who was 22 before the end of the season.....and saying those are equal from an experience standpoint and that they should be equal from a development standpoint.

    Not that I really expect honesty from anyone desperately trying to deflect from how terrible Jalen Green has been in his first 3 years in the NBA.

    Despite all of Jalen Green's advantages, he just doesn't have anywhere near the skills. After 225 starts in the NBA, he's still a guy that has freak athleticism and nothing else.

    Before we get a bunch of "hey, he improved his defense" type posts, sure, he's not quite as bad at a few things as he used to be....but he still has developed no skills whatsoever. Defense is not something he does well, it's not a strength of his, he's just not the worst in the league anymore. He's still the guy that offenses like to pick on because they know he can't stop anyone. He still has a weak handle that defenses like to pick on by aggressively doubling and trapping him. They know if he is pressured, he's likely to make a mistake and either force a bad shot, turn the ball over outright, or make a bad pass.

    All of this "BUT KPJ" whataboutism is merely intended to deflect from what a failure Jalen Green has been....even when the kid isn't in the league at all, the Jalen Green fanbois attempt to blame everything on KPJ or make him their whipping boy. It's transparent.

    My main hope going into the next season, was the same as going into this season.....let's have this be the year we all stop making excuses for Jalen Green's failure, either due to Jalen finally becoming a decent basketball player or due to the fanbois finally accepting reality. Either would suffice.
     
  12. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    I'd certainly be a LOT higher on him if he wasn't one of the worst shooters in the league. I think expecting him to go from that to a 38% shooter is wildly optimistic, but if the miracle happened, it would certainly be nice.
     
  13. clos4life

    clos4life Member

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    Lebron started at 29% and this year he is at 41%, his second time surpassing 40% from three. I'm not saying JG will improve that much, but it's certainly within the range of possibility.
     
  14. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Again with the dishonesty. He had one season at 29%, coming straight out of high school and needing to adjust to the NBA 3 point line.....by season 2, he was up to 35% and that's essentially his career average.

    After his rookie season, he was never one of the worst shooters in the NBA(though he did have a few seasons his 3 ball was off), and certainly wasn't after 3 full seasons.

    Of course, that's expected because Lebron James was a generational star and one of the most skilled basketball players to ever live, and Jalen Green is a guy that came in without any real NBA skills and still hasn't developed any.

    Maybe compare Jalen to guys more in his tier of talent, like Gerald Green. It's certainly more fair to Jalen.
     
  15. clos4life

    clos4life Member

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    Lebron's year by year for his first 8 years. 29, 35.1, 33.5, 31.9, 31.5, 34.4, 33.3, 33 before finally going above his career average on year 9 at 36. He even had a dip in year 13 going back to 30.9.

    Kiddo, you got your information wrong, as he was particularly bad seasons 4 and 5, and not that good overall until basically year 10 of his career.

    Will JG ever become a star of Lebron's level? I think not. But to say he can't improve his 3 point % when he is currently sitting at 33.7% for his career is ridiculous when there are many examples of players improving for years is just idiotic.
     
  16. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Look at more than just 3 point percentage, Jalen is at the bottom of the league in 3 point %, FG%, and TS%.

    The kid flat out can't shoot.

    That was NEVER the case with Lebron... you just want to force a comparison that isn't there to make it seem like Jalen's pathetic failure is acceptable.
     
  17. AlperenSengun

    AlperenSengun Member

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    I played around on this website below with Jabari and Jalen to see if there is anything significant statistically about their 3pt shooting.

    https://perthirtysix.com/nba/player-shot-chart

    Here are my main take aways:

    1) Both players shoot very poorly in the 4th quarters. First 3 quarters vs 4th & overtime numbers:

    Jalen: 34.8% vs 25%
    Jabari: 40.9% vs 23.8%

    The drop in both players is very striking.

    The good news is Jabari consistently shoots around 40% in each of the 3 quarters. Jabari also has a significant drop in ft% in the 4th quarters as well. The 4th quarter issue should be a combination lack of stamina and cracking under pressure.

    Jalen, however, is more inconsistent throughout the game. 31.4% in the first half. 40.2% in the 3rd and 25% in the 4th. The 4th quarter.

    2) The rest of the analysis, I focus on the first 3 quarters, where Jalen is a 34.8% and Jabari is a 40.9% 3pt shooter because I think the 4th quarter thing stands as a separate issue and I want to understand what is happening outside of that.

    Here are the percentages by shot distance. First number is Jalen second is Jabari.

    22-24ft 43% 45.1%
    25-27ft 32.2% 39.6%
    28-31ft. 43.9%. 60% 41 and 5 attempts respectively
    32+ ft. 0% both on 8 and 5 attempts respectively

    You can see the inconsistency in Green again.

    3) Finally let's have a look at how things go throughout the season. We all know Jalen had a 'streak'.

    Between 3/14 and 3/29 in 8 games he made 36 3 pointers (in the first 3 quarters) on 50% shooting, which amounts to 20% of his 3 pointers for the whole season. That came against mostly lottery teams except for 7/11 against okc. And then he finished with 28.1% the rest of the season, mostly against playoff teams.

    Jabari again has been much more consistent throughout the season, has no extended hot streaks.

    Conclusion:

    Jalen is inconsistent in every aspect of 3pt shooting, not just overall 3pt%. I think that is normal because the main problem is his shooting mechanics, not outside factors like distance, closest defender etc. and confidence and finding a rhythm (aka doing the right things without actually being aware of them and therefore not doing them consistently) plays a huge role in his performance,
     
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  18. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    Jabari has better mechanic. That's why he is a more consistent shooter. His problem is mental. He needs to both toughen up and loosen up.

    Jalen's game is more instinctual. What he needs is better mechanics and better habits.
     
  19. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

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    Rather vapid analysis as this doesn't take into context things like whether they are taking these shots off the dribble or whether they are bail out shots. Green takes a significantly more difficult level of shots because they are off the dribble and a lot of them are bail out shots when teammates who are bad at creating something out of nothing like Bari with the clock winding down dump it to Green way outside the three point line.

    Green also has a sound form outside of a cross body motion when reading the ball up. He's always been a sound ft% and before this season his open catch and shoot 3s were around 39%.




    His form is one motion and effortless.
    I've seen people here say Cam has a better form and that's when I know people do not know what they are talking about especially given Cam's very exaggerated two motion form.

    Jabari does have a more traditional technical form.

    But to say Green's issue is technical is silly. You can say he has too much variance in how high he jumps on many of his jumpers that can cause inconsistency but that is almost always the issue with highly athletic self creation scoring guards like Kobe when they were young.
     
  20. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    The mental part about is Green doing his circus shenanigans like his partly no look 3 pointers when his shot is on.....

    That is just showboating and not really conducive to consistent shooting.

     

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