They can have max space next off season by 1. not extending Sengun (they could extend Green and still get there probably, but extending Sengun will blow this up.) and 2. declining FVV's team option. (unless they also trade one of Green or Dillon by then.) ( This means that contracts minus FVV and Landal is around 50 M and caphold of Sengun + Green is about 47m, which adds up to 97, probably have to add in another 10 or so for empty slots and draft picks so there's like a 50m room there in theory. ) yes, in theory, FVV right now might be a pretty good trade piece as either an expiring or a 2 year rental, but only pretty specific teams would value him in most likihood (like Orlando. maybe Spurs / Utah.) however, if it's a team that's trying to punt or something and trade away their star (the only likely type of trade I think the rockets might look into if it's this off season ) trading for good vets probably doesn't help them much. As for Dillon, I would think at this exact moment his value as a trade salary is at best neutral and possibly negative, 3 years is a lot, granted for a team blowing it up who really cares but this but teams argue around the margins. assuming he doesn't fall off a cliff his contract would look better a couple years from now but right now it's still 3 year 20 per for a guy that just finished with sub 10 PER, yes the defense was pretty good but not every team can survive a forward getting sub 10 PER. Anyway, when talking about trades, the key is always "for WHAT?" you don't trade just to make trades. One has to actually like.. bring up names and rationalize why the Rockets should go for that player and perhaps more importantly (given most fans are biased towards their own team) why the other team would really want to do that. ------------------------------------------------------ Given this setup, I would probably only trade if... 1. FVV is the matching salary, then it has to be some sort of crazy world beater type of first / 2nd all NBA type guys, it's not impossible one shakes loose but no one ever should go in assuming that happens. 2. Dillon is the main matching salary : sure then that might be more interesting and wider range of guys (though I don't think Dillon will be viewed as positive matching salary this off season.) but I would think that if it's just Dillon + Picks the odds are he's like what... it's not going to be some super star that's for sure. Also one should point out if we're going this path and the player coming back is someone much more expensive (like say for some reason, Jaylen Brown.) that would present serious issues for the team a couple years down the road as well. Again, one can't preclude something good comes up, but I feel it's more likely they'll just make the pick and/or make trades where it's like picks for picks type of deck shuffling. this draft is said to be pretty blah but usually you can find at least decent rotation players somewhere in any draft and who really know, the worst draft of the last 15 years had a MVP and DPOY (just not in the lottery.)
Having looked at the draft more extensively I think it's a lot deeper than most realize. When people say it's a "weak draft" it's mostly referring to lack of top tier talent like there Def isn't a Wemby in this draft. There prob isn't even a Brandon Miller or an Amen. But in terms of players who can make an instant impact or have a decent upside ala Jaime JJ or Walker Kessler I think there's a lot in this draft. If I were the Rox my immediate concern is getting a wing player to serve as Jalen Green insurance. We don't know how negotiations or extensions will turn out what if JG starts next season playing like crap and shooting bricks again? You don't wanna get trapped extending him to max just cuz you can't afford to lose him like what PHX did to Ayton. This draft has wings who will either make an immediate impact off the bench (Knecht, Shepherd, Cody Williams) or high upside guys we can develop in GLeague and then bring in a year later depending on how negotiations work out (Johnny Furphy, Ron Holland, Matas Buzelis, Kyshawn George, Tidjane Salaun etc). I think 9th spot there are enough talent left to get a good prospect either way.
if Rockets gonna use this pick...I'd prefer high upside guys like in the molds of Amen and Cam....might develop and used for future contention.. and if there's an opportunity for a good trade acquiring an ALL-NBA talent, then package this pick.
I'm not for a blanket trade of the pick this year, but I'd do it under the right circumstances. Say, Brooks and the pick to the Blazers for Simons. Good shooter and Jalen insurance. If he has another season of 2/3 dud 1/3 star, it will ease the pressure of him hitting RFA with Simons on the roster. Not going to cry if they keep it in a "weak" draft.... as others have said, there are dudes in this draft, just no obvious stars. We have a good recent track record of finding value in the draft.
I like the approach but I ain't trading Brooks and a lotto pick for freaking Anfernee Simons. Simons scored 56% TS, Brooks scored 54.5% TS. They score at similar rate Simons just shoots more. We can just draft a Green replacement. You can have that prospect chill and develop in GLeague while you evaluate Green. And then if negotiations fall thru at the end of the season that prospect will be ready to step in.
man the more I hear folks breakdown this draft the more depressed I am. If we keep this pick I think we should focus on high floor guys actually. There is such a high probability of swinging and missing in this draft with the Euros and the G-League Ignite guys, and most agree the ceilings on these guys aren’t really great. So if the ceiling is poor, even for the high-upside guys, I’d rather have a Kenecht or a Shepard or even a Devin Carter. At least you know what u are getting. And sometimes those guys end up being better than the evaluators think. Look at Jacquez for example. If we have conviction about a raw player I’d be okay as long as we can stash them…we honestly don’t have any minutes for another rookie (save for an elite shooter or rim protector). But definitely leaning towards safe picks. The bust factor in this draft is the highest in a long time. So many credible evaluators say this is the worst in at least a decade.
Fair enough, I remembered him shooting 40+ percent from 3, but I guess that was a couple years ago... and I wouldn't have guessed his TS% would be so low.
There's also a lot of wing prospects in this draft so In def partial to drafting the JG's insurance policy unless a mega star like SGA shakes loose.
It depends on how the odds go. I don't see a lot of difference between top and low prospects in this draft so I would def like to trade down and get multiple chances at prospects. Traditionally in weaker drafts a lot of the top prospects end up as duds and somebody else becomes the best player. Like in 2020 pretty much all of the top 10 besides Edwards, Lamelo and Okungwu sucked ass and the better players were found lower.
This honestly makes a lot of sense, but also raises the question of whether the Rockets intend to actually draft a player or trade the pick.
Nope, I'm right there with you, not unhappy with this draft at all. The people complaining just don't see a Wemby or a Lebron at the top .... and that guy can always turn into Greg Oden or Sam Bowie. There's plenty of talent to be had, Stone just has to identify that talent and I think he's done a pretty good job in that regard since taking over - Sengun, Cam and Tari all later picks that are outplaying their draft position. Where we pick right now is a complete unknown, but even worst case scenario there are players in that part of the draft that can help this roster.
Lots of players I like but no one I love. I still think it’s an average draft at worst. There are some star talents in this draft, they just are not as developed so it’s more of a toss up. Only player I don’t really like is Knecht. I know a lot of people like him - but I am not high on the talent level.
One scenario I keep wondering about is a sign-and-trade for Tyrese Maxey with FVV heading over to Philly. Now, Maxey is probably already better than Fred and may continue to improve, but I think it's much closer than people may realize, and I wonder if Fred might not honestly be a better fit next to Embiid with his playmaking, defense, and playoff experience. I just wonder if Daryl isn't going to strike out on all the big free agent targets and end up in kind of a stressful situation, with Embiid's prime years running out and not sure if Maxey can ever be good enough to be a #1A type of guy. It's obvious that we would have to give up more than just FVV. Adding Tari into the deal jumps to mind as something that would preserve them some more flexibility and cap space the next couple years. Anyway, just spitballing here. Nice post summarizing our cap situation and everything!
@Nook, who are the prospects you see with star potential? Clingan, Castle, and Shepard seem like good prospects. But also there seems like there are a lot of raw players with bust potential. Curious who u like. I think I remember you posting about Shepard?
Pretty sure Morey will not be trading Maxey for FVV, even if threw in the next 6 years of unprotected picks.
I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
