[ I don't think you can isolate Green's good games to 5 games though especially when it comes to impact on winning. I'm been following his on/off impact this season: https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4865/onoff#tab-team_efficiency Currently he's in the 40th percentile in on/off impact. 2 months ago he was at a putrid 12%. That number has been steadily going up for more than a month now. Green's hot shooting has been more recent but his level of overall play like defense has been up for over a month now. That's how I know this isn't just a hot streak.
I mean I doubt he's going to be a career 40% three pt shooter from here on out. If that's the case then I expect him to be in MVP convos lol because that level of shooting with his ability to go to the rim at will would be rather absurd. If he regresses his shooting down to something between 35% to 38% then this high level of play is sustainable. His finishing at the rim seems like it should be permanent. His ability to change pace rather than just going blindly full speed is a permanent thing. His defensive effort should be a permanent thing. Its just his shooting that everyone here is holding their breath on whether it's sustainable. But the reality is he can regress his current 3pt shooting to something more reasonable and he's still a future star.
Yeah, I would love it if he could just have average 3P% for his position (around 37%). His defense is passable now and his ability to get to the rim and to draw FTs are already above average. Like you said, I'm just waiting to see if he can improve his jump shot consistently.
The thing you have to factor in is: this is not the first time he's shown he can catch fire and his defense has been great. He breaks 30 and 40 point barriers way too easily to compare him to Tony Delk or Malik Monk or whoever you're thinking about. It just doesn't have the same air. No one thought Corey Brewer had taken a big step. This smells like a star breaking out in front of a coach who previously couldn't figure him out. Udoka did the same thing in Boston, attributed the turnaround to the team listening to him but if you watch the player interviews they say it's because he started understanding them. Same thing going on here imo. It doesn't mean it's permanent or there won't be rough patches but Jalen and the team simply know how to do something very effective that they didn't know how to do before. Sengun is just as effective in this type of offense according to the little data we have. There are countless media outlets talking about how Jalen looks like he's figured something out - that has not been the case with his previous streaks which were mostly dismissed as hot shooting. To be honest with you, in the past 14 games Jalen has played the kind of defense I didn't think I'd see out of him till he's 25+. To me his defensive ceiling has increased and the idea I used to have that he must be a 30+ ppg scorer to be worth a lot of money has changed. Defense is half the game (and offense the other half). That's a big change. It's like thinking someone is a 20ppg scorer and it turns out they're a 25+ppg scorer. Once he is mentally in the habit of playing defense consistently it looks like it will stick. With added muscle he can be a good defender - something I was never so sure about. I'm also now 100% certain he's not a selfish player, he just hasn't fully learned how to function in a team setting and he's gotten better at it all season. This is one place where experience and good coaching I feel is definitely going to get him to 5+ assists per game next season which is super important for his impact on winning. This is his ONE season of proper coaching ever and if 75% of his offense holds up the rest of the way he will have taken a giant leap. Just look at the sentence objectively, does it seem absurd: "After 2 years without much development in the roster under Stephen Silas, Jalen Green took less than 60 games under Ime Udoka to become a better overall player with better habits on both sides of the ball." Would anyone be shocked if that ends up being the story? Dude we're a roughly .500 team who lost our best player and 2 key rotation players. If we can win 90% of games against easy teams, that's amazing. I'm sure there will be bad games in a month's worth of games, but let's see how many wins he can lead us to with this short-handed squad. Think about what's possible with this guy after another summer of adding muscle, working on his 3pt shot, one more training camp with Udoka (to solidify new offense), potentially improved shooting/spacing from Sengun, roster improvements. If Green and Sengun can make some good progress on their 3pt shot, they can be deadlier than Sengun/FVV in the PnR as a duo. The 3PT shot will allow them to be positive impact players whether they're linking up or getting out of each other's way. That can lead to a serious step up in our net rating. As I've said before, he would be the least surprising late bloomer ever.
I'd have a lot more respect for the doomers and people who gloat about being "right" about a young player being a bust. Backtracking and moving the goal posts further and further back is so lame. Just relax, let the kids develop, and enjoy the team. There doesn't HAVE to be someone to trash or blame for our losses every other day on this site, especially out of our 6 young players. They're going to be inconsistent. If any young player was consistently dropping 28 a game on efficient shooting, and that's the measure that makes you happy, you're going to have to wait for a few unbelievable stars and bandwagon their whole career.
Indeed And its reason why I mention it to some on here about actual playing experience in games on any level from Jr High and up to have better understanding Not saying people can't be the B Simmons/S Bayless on here but to me its just easier to discuss ball with those who have been in situations and knowing what it is like to go from HS to NBA as a guard at that and not named LeBron Your reply is on point about those players Jordan was NCAA POY as a junior, under arguably the GOAT college coach Had Jordan entered the league as 17/18 yr old he wouldn't not have avg 28ppg rookie year
To all of the "he's been great BUT..." fans here, enjoy these wins, this ride and this push to a possible play-in. They would not be in this position without him. Enjoy another win tonight.
I don't buy the new system excuse. I'm not saying it's not an issue but the stats doesn't back it up. Jalen actually played well to start the season under Udoka, in November he averaged like 19 points a game on an efficient 58TS and shot 37.5 percent from 3. His struggles actually started in December and just got worse and worse lingering all the way into Feb. It's not really about how fast we play or the new system. Jalen plays the same way he always plays in my opinion. I don't even think it was his shot selection that improved, he just rides the highest highs but also sinks to the lowest of lows. I don't really know what the answer to consistency is, he couldn't make open layups and open 3's for 3 months straight, that's not really on any system or coaching.
I was very depressed about him and almost gave up hope. But I've been pushing back the "cut the loss" crowd. Getting rid of him for a low return is the classic high risk low return move, and I was surprised so many people wanted to do that just a month ago. It was clearly an emotional reaction of the disappointment rather than a rational view of the situation.
Yeah and I don’t think it was unfair. Looking at it from the outside, it’s 2.5 years of waiting for his efficiency to climb while it sinks deeper and deeper. Just doesn’t warrant giving up on a project you barely tried to develop when you have time on the clock before his restricted free agency. At the end of the day for me it’s about whether he has a high positive net impact on the court by 25-26 season. That’s what’s best for the team. Udoka said early in the season: habits take time and each player is different. In hindsight it’s not surprising Jalen would take longer to drop/adopt habits. It did look bleak for some time but I think plenty of coaches would believe they can develop him into a great scorer.
Before this surge, my expectations for him was much lower than before the season. I still had a sliver of hope that he might turn into a star player we wanted when he was drafted. But I would be satisfied if he could be a solid NBA player. I thought it would be worth keeping him (not on a max contract though) rather than giving him for an mediocre veteran role player.
Interesting to think about--I do think the door has cracked back open for him to get a real extension now, but only if he doesn't fall off another cliff before the end of the season. Question is, what would you offer him now? I certainly wouldn't offer him the max, too risky. Even the deal Devin Vassell got might be a bit too high though I guess I wouldn't be flipping tables over it. Maybe something like a $90 to $100M four year contract? Similar to Dillon Brooks' deal?
From you fan view I can somewhat see where you coming from But from the two biggest JG4 brown-nosers in Tilman/Stone, your cracked door is more like the Blue & White Nile rivers to them I think it would be wise for Stone to let the rook deal ride out, and if Green can give you 65% of current form (or 58-60+ ts%) with 25% vs Caruso/team defense like last Bulls game and only 10% (5% would be excellent, but baby steps) of bad JG4, would have him passing the Vassell deal pretty easily And if he only decides to take your lowball offer of 100$ million, then I would imagine the young bulls took a page out of Bron book when he formed the Heatles and they all have agreed to discounts to stay together for at least good portion of their young legacies Jalen seems to be unselfish on the hardwood, but when it comes to a man pocket/bank account you gotta do what you gotta do
We don't have to extend him until the end of next season. He's under contract already, so this summer it really makes no difference. We can play him all of next season then let him hit RFA if we want. The "3rd year" thing is mostly just an arbitrary benchmark that fans use.
Up until now, most rocket fans have been lucky to not go through the experience of having to see young players develop. Most players that come into the league at 18 or 19 usually need a full 3 years to know what they can become. Harden and T-Mac were not the stars they were in their first 3 years before they came to Houston. Top draft picks such as Hakeem, Francis and Yao could hit the ground running as they all came into the league at 22 or older. I’ve lived in LA now for a few years and I’ve watched young teenagers like Shai, Ingram, Randle, etc struggle the same way as Jalen has if not more. Most fans wanted to trade them as soon as each season started. But they all had one thing in common, the ability to take over a game every once in a while. That ability doesn’t grow on trees but the consistency does takes time and patience. We should all be glad that Houston has two stars in the making with Sengun and Green. Let’s not be in a hurry to trade one or the other just for some short term help to make the playin. The goal should be how to build a young team that will contend for years.
And what’s more important is when your youngsters have finally developed, the owner isn’t too cheap to retain all of them. OKC / Harden comes to mind. I have my doubts on Tilman. But too early to worry about that I guess.
