Kyle Tucker - What's that new contract going to look like?

To be fair, during this time I was bigger on the “ship Whitley” team, but I’m not gonna lie, I was also down to trade Tucker. But we kept both, and still won.

 

Since he started wearing gloves he has been like 50 points higher as a batting avg.

DD

 

$300/10, let's just get it done.

The real MVP that keeps this team rolling.

 

Now way judges deal is going to be worth it. Age/injury were the entire huge massive red flag and it’s already hit them. If his deal was going to make sense he was going to have to pile up some huge seasons in the front end and injury stopped him from doing that this year. That one is gonna be bad. Agree with all your other assessment s

 

I’ll confess i was too lol. I remember espn 9.75? Maybe had a scenario involving Chris Sale for tucker and others. Boy that would’ve been bad for the Astros in hindsight yikes.

 

Do you know why he started doing that?

 

Pitch clock adjustment.

 

You think so? Tucker leaving cripples the Astros. We'd be dead this year without him. You think Crane will let the 2nd or 3rd best player in the AL just leave in free agency? Losing Tucker takes us out of contention and maybe even causes us to miss the playoffs going forward. I'll be devastated if he leaves in FA.

 

He got winded trying to do the whole routine with the timer

 

He will test the market and go to the highest bidder. That won’t be the Astros.

 

It is true that the Astros would likely be out of the playoff picture this season without Tucker. But projecting forward if you let Tucker walk and spend $10-20M on a 2 win player to replace him the net loss is likely only 2-3 wins. It is possible to make that up elsewhere, although that approach is risky and puts a lot of pressure on the remaining stars and farm system.

 

I knew I would find a better place than the spring training thread to put this.

I broke down the 20 top not active RF of the past 30 years by JAWS. (OK Nelson Cruz may still be active I'm not sure)

Since Tucker will be FA @29, I got age 28 OPS+ and WAR as a base then broke down ages 29-41.

Age 28: 136 OPS+ / 4.2 WAR
Age 29: 139 OPS+ / 4.3 WAR
Age 30: 136 OPS+ / 4.2 WAR
Age 31: 137 OPS+ / 3.8 WAR
Age 32: 125 OPS+ / 3.2 WAR
Age 33: 127 OPS+ / 3.4 WAR
Age 34: 131 OPS+ / 3.5 WAR
Age 35: 118 OPS+ / 2.4 WAR (19 remain)
Age 36: 113 OPS+ / 1.9 WAR (16 remain)
Age 37: 116 OPS+ / 1.6 WAR (13 remain)
Age 38: 109 OPS+ / 1.2 WAR (10 remain)
Age 39: 116 OPS+ / 1.9 WAR (5 remain)
Age 40: 112 OPS+ / 0.9 WAR (5 remain)
Age 41: 74 OPS+ / -0.1 WAR (3 remain)

Now I will break down 5+ /3-4.9 /2-2.9 /<2 WAR seasons.

Age 28: 40% /25% /25% /10%
Age 29: 40% /40% /10% /10%
Age 30: 30% /20% /35% /15%
Age 31: 30% /45% /10% /15%
Age 32: 15% /35% /20% /30%
Age 33: 20% /45% /10% /25%
Age 34: 30% /20% /30% /20%
Age 35: 11% /32% /11% /46%
Age 36: 0 /25% /13% /62%
Age 37: 0 /15% /23% /62%
Age 38: 0 /20% /10% /70%
Age 39: 20% /0 /20% /60%
Age 40: 0 / 0 / 20% /80%
Age 41: 0 /0 /0 /0 /100%

Obviously starting at age 39 there simply aren't enough players left for it mean anything anymore. Add Nelson Cruz getting 5 WAR at age 39 and it is basically not even worth talking about.

Fortunately, 10 years only needs to look at ages 29-38.

At 38 the averages were still 116 OPS+ and 1.6 WAR. 6 of 10 had 105 OPS+ or better. 5 of 10 had at least 1.6 WAR.

The average WAR over the 10 yr contract is 29.5 WAR.

This clearly shows that there is an excellent chance that a Tucker will still be at least an average player at the end of a 10 year extension.

 

He turned 27 in January. Offer him a 10 year deal that would keep him here till 36.

 

and at the rate of inflation (both real and amplified in baseball ) $30M a year for a perennial MVP candidate will look like a bargain in 3-5 years from now. I’d go with 8/$240M but 10/$300M would not be terrible? (Especially thinking of future AAV)

 

I'm pretty sure if he was willing to settle for 8 the Astros would have signed him by now

 

The market will not permit Tucker to stay beyond 2025. I don't blame him for taking the Market, but the market is overvalued via paying for declining years at peak rates.There are a small handful of exceptions which are DRASTICALLY reduced after discounting PEDS. While others pursue windows, we sustain success. I like it no matter how much others bellyache.

Just give me an example of a 10 year contract at max value which has been completed and been worth it. Most have NOT been worth it even in the first half.

 

What I am pretty sure of is that Jim Crane has been adamant that he is not interested in anything more than a 5 year contract. I have not seen or heard anything that would make me think that he would change his mind if Tucker was willing to settle for 8 years. I am confident that both Bregman and Tucker will receive offers, but both will be for 5 years. What that means, of course, is that I fully expect Tucker to sign elsewhere, and most likely Bregman also.

 

I can't remember an exception, but his Contracts I do remember which are longer have incorporated either existing contracts or CC through arbitrationI though I thought he had one six year extension, but I may be wrong.

 

I agree with this idea but think the terms have opened up a bit.

I think 6 yrs instead of 5 has been Crane's max but agree it had to be a special case (Yordan, Correa) to go over 5.

I think the difference in available replacements they are confident in and general talent in the system along w Brown vs Luhnow's philosophies make the difference.

I think there is a chance that Crane is willing to go 7 yrs for Bregman and 8 yrs for Tucker.

We may never know though as both those numbers are less than the market would bring them.

 

It's always partly a matter of AAV as well as length. The player wants both. If Bregman would take $25M/yr, I suspect he could get a longer contract since 8-$25M/Tr is $200M and 5-$40M meets the length parameter, but would be less acceptable. I'm just using the logic that his is on par with Altuve who is 3 years older at the same AAV.